Strong sentiment towards high prices in the organic silicon market, difficulty in significantly improving construction
2023/9/14
The supply and demand side of organic silicon guides preferences, while the cost side also provides a strong boost. Since the beginning of the month, except for a slight decline in methanol prices, both chloroform and metallic silicon have risen significantly. Specifically, due to the maintenance of the equipment, the supply of goods in the market for dichloromethane has decreased, and the prices quoted by the holders have increased. The current quotation is between 2500 and 2700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The supply and demand side of the methanol market is in a game, and due to the volatility of futures trading, the market price range fluctuates slightly. Currently, the mainstream price in East China is 2525-2535 yuan/ton; Metal silicon is mainly supported by the increase in futures prices from major manufacturers in the industry. The current port price of chemical grade 421 metal silicon is between 15400 and 15600 yuan/ton, and the current comprehensive cost of organic silicon is around 16000 yuan/ton.
At present, the mainstream reference prices for organic silicon products are: DMC quotation around 14900 yuan/ton, D4 quotation around 15200 yuan/ton, 107 rubber quotation around 15300 yuan/ton, raw rubber quotation around 15000 yuan/ton, precipitation mixed rubber 13000-13800 yuan/ton, and gas phase mixed rubber 15100-15700 yuan/ton; Domestic brands of dimethyl silicone oil are around 15500-16000 yuan, while foreign brands are around 17500-18500 yuan/ton; The mainstream negotiation for trichlorosilane ordinary grade is 5000 to 7000 yuan/ton, the photovoltaic grade is around 7000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiation for gas-phase white carbon black is 15500 to 28000 yuan/ton.
Future Market Forecast
At present, there is a strong sentiment of high prices in the organic silicon market, but monomer factories are still basically unprofitable, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in construction. The situation of tight supply in the short term will continue, and buying and restocking operations are underway. It is rumored that some delivery dates will be early next month. The favorable supply and demand pattern is also a great opportunity for individual factories to repair profits. Currently, there is still a gap of about a thousand yuan from the cost line for organic silicon. It is expected that there will still be a high price exploration operation in the organic silicon market in the future. However, during the process of chasing high prices, close attention will be paid to the acceptance ability of buyers, and the amplitude and frequency of the adjustment will be slowed down.
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