Photovoltaic cell technology route changes accelerate industry will face significant changes
2023/9/13
Jufeng Investment Advisor Yu Xiaoming believes that with the rise of BC battery technology, the entire photovoltaic industry will undergo significant changes. The widespread application of BC battery technology will drive the development of the photovoltaic industry, promote the construction of photovoltaic power stations, and expand the installed scale.
But at the same time, the direction of past production capacity has also become a problem.
BC battery technology route may become mainstream
Previously, the Chairman of Longji Green Energy stated at the performance meeting that in the next 5-6 years, BC type batteries will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon batteries. As a result, the market has attracted attention to BC batteries.
It is understood that BC battery (Back Contact) is a double-sided back contact battery with a double-sided structure, which has high photoelectric conversion efficiency.
Specifically, Lin Li, Director of CIC Insight Consulting, introduced to reporters that, firstly, the excellent efficiency of BC batteries can significantly enhance light energy absorption and conversion, effectively improve module output power and enhance photovoltaic system performance, theoretically achieving a high conversion efficiency of over 29%. Secondly, BC battery technology is highly compatible with distributed photovoltaic characteristics. On the one hand, its excellent single-sided power generation capacity and high battery packaging density enable it to generate more electricity in a limited area and number of modules; On the other hand, the feature of no grid lines on the front is more in line with aesthetic requirements and easier to integrate into architectural design.
Therefore, in the view of multiple institutions in the industry, this technology is expected to start the next round of incremental cycle in the photovoltaic industry.
In this industry chain, multiple companies have taken the lead in layout. For example, the photovoltaic insulation adhesive produced by Guangxin Materials can be applied to BC batteries. The securities department staff of the company told reporters that the company is arranging corresponding production based on the needs of downstream customers. It is reported that the monthly sales volume of this product has reached millions.
In addition, Tyr Laser has laser micro etching equipment applied to BC batteries, and obtained nearly 40GW of production orders for BC last year. Some companies, such as Robertco, Hanzhong Precision Machine, and Suzhou Gutecheng, have already entered the field of BC batteries and related products can be put into use.
In the upstream of the industrial chain, some of these enterprises can choose to smoothly enter based on their existing production lines. Guangxin Materials stated that as a platform based technology, BC can be combined with technologies such as TOPCon and HJT to form various technical routes such as TBC and HBC. As of now, the company has developed a variety of photovoltaic adhesive solutions for XBC battery scenarios such as TBC and HBC, which are derived from the integration of BC batteries with TOPCon, HJT, etc.
Regarding the widespread application of BC batteries, in order to achieve the goals of reducing costs and improving efficiency, collaboration on the industrial chain will become more important, so as to improve technical links and supporting equipment, "said Lin Li.
Where to Go for Listed Companies with Alternative Production Capacity
Before the BC battery fire, many photovoltaic cell manufacturers had used N-type batteries (i.e. batteries using N-type silicon wafers as the substrate material, including TOPCon, HJT, IBC technology routes) as an emerging race track.
Last year, the production capacity of N-type batteries expanded rapidly. According to SMM statistics, the production capacity of TOPCon batteries reached 77.4GW by the end of 2022, a year-on-year increase of nearly seven times. This year, the N-type battery still maintains a high growth rate. According to PVInfoLink statistics, the proportion of N-type production capacity in photovoltaic cells will increase from 21% in Q1 2023 to 51% in Q4 2023. This year, including Zhonglai Group, Zhengtai Xinneng, Yidao Xinneng, etc., increased investment in TOPcon production capacity.
However, just as the layout of N-type batteries is in full swing, the addition of BC battery technology has led to an accelerated phenomenon of alternating old and new production capacity, and will some past production capacity fall into an awkward situation?
The head of a head battery enterprise that has already laid out BC batteries told reporters that the profitability of the company's PERC battery (passivated battery on the back of the emitter, hereinafter referred to as "P-type battery") is still good, and the full transition to the scale application of BC batteries still depends more on the market. The company will timely promote mass production based on the development stage of BC battery technology. If it does not meet the company's requirements, it will not rush to mass production.
In fact, multiple photovoltaic cell companies have already started to compete and have recently concentrated on publicly disclosing their progress. On September 12th, Tongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that the company has achieved a comprehensive layout of research and development for TOPcon, HJT, back contact (BC) batteries, perovskite/silicon stacked batteries and other technological routes.
Jingke Energy stated that the company's R&D team has completed the development of high-precision and low-damage patterned technology for the back of NBC batteries, and integrated the above technology into the battery process to form a complete set of fully passivated contact N-type BC battery processes. The batch efficiency of laboratory N-type BC batteries has exceeded 25.5%. Hengdian Dongci also stated that the company has been following up on BC technology and has completed preliminary technical reserves. Last year, it built a pilot line.
Will the emergence of BC batteries cause waste of production capacity for P-type and N-type batteries? Lin Li stated that whether production capacity is wasted mainly depends on three factors: production line compatibility, technology upgrade costs, and changes in market demand. If the existing production line is difficult to upgrade to adapt to BC batteries, or the upgrade cost is high, or market demand changes rapidly, it may lead to capacity waste. In this regard, photovoltaic manufacturers can gradually adjust their production lines to produce BC batteries to adapt to market changes and reduce the risk of capacity waste. You can also choose to maintain diversified production capacity, continue to produce traditional P-type and N-type batteries, while producing BC batteries to reduce waste risks and maintain competitiveness in different markets.
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