Expected reduction in methanol imports in the fourth quarter, seasonal destocking or continuation
2023/9/11
As the situation in September has become basically clear, the import expectations and inventory trends in the fourth quarter have become a hot topic of market attention and discussion, which is crucial for the pricing of the 01 contract. In previous years, factors such as winter natural gas restrictions at home and abroad, environmental restrictions on production in mainland China, and coal have all led to the 01 contract being defined as a strong contract, that is, a contract that is prone to speculation by bulls.
In the first three quarters, there was a significant increase in non Iranian arrivals, with a monthly average volume of over 600000 tons, supporting the high performance of China's imports. Due to the resumption of all Iranian installations and the difficulty in boosting demand from Europe and America, it was discussed in October whether imports could continue to maintain a supply level of over 1.3 million tons. However, it is understood that the transportation capacity of Iran's air routes has been tight recently, and in September, the estimated shipment in the main Middle East region may significantly decrease to around 55-60000 tons. At the same time, due to unexpected parking in Malaysia and Brunei in Southeast Asia, the supply of goods in the region has been tight for the month, and the significant increase in price center may attract other non Iranian sources to divert. As we enter November December, both domestic and international gas restrictions are expected to begin, and coupled with the prolonged negotiation period for the US dollar in the coming year, the import reduction is mostly the normal performance.
As of the end of this week, the main regions in the Middle East have loaded around 200000 tons of cargo (including cargo berthing and loading) in September. Non Iranian cargo has already loaded 132500 tons (including cargo berthing and loading) in September, and the subsequent loading speed in the Middle East still needs to be closely followed up.
In summary, it is believed that port inventory in September may reach a high within the year, and the seasonal trend of destocking may continue in previous years. The focus should be on the actual performance of the strong mainstream view of crude oil on olefin end consumption.
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