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The refrigerant market continues to rise, and cost benefits support manufacturers to increase prices
2023/9/8
Entering September, the refrigerant market continues to rise, and the current cost advantage supporting manufacturers' price increases is still ongoing. According to historical data analysis, downstream demand in the traditional peak season of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" market will be boosted. When will the demand side benefit the market situation begin, and when will the traditional peak season demand boost of the "Golden Three Silver Four" not meet the expectations of the industry? Can the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" drive the market to a new upward trend this year?
In terms of the domestic trade market, from historical data, the production of downstream air conditioners, cars, refrigerators, and freezers for refrigerant terminals has increased to varying degrees since September. Especially for air conditioning manufacturers, the production growth is relatively significant, belonging to a small peak of manufacturers' production. There has been an increase in demand for refrigerants. Although the overall demand is limited, it is still partially beneficial to the market and provides support for the refrigerant market.
In terms of exports, for example, refrigerant R22. From the comparison table of refrigerant R22's export data over the years, it can be seen that in September, except for 2018, the export volume of refrigerant R22 market has mostly decreased month on month in most years. On the contrary, in October, the export volume of refrigerant R22 market increased significantly month on month in October, even lasting until November. The export quantity of refrigerant R22 continued to increase month on month until December began to decrease. From the perspective of overall exports, after entering the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the refrigerant market only reached its highest export level in the year from October until November, and the high export focus of the year was also concentrated in October November.
The overall support for the foreign trade market may be delayed in the procurement time of downstream end manufacturers, which may result in a relative time difference. For refrigerants, the favorable situation on the demand side may continue, slowly supporting the upward price of refrigerants during the "golden nine silver ten" period.
From the price trend chart of mainstream refrigerant models in the first three years, it can be seen that after entering the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the prices of various mainstream models have mostly increased, especially the R125 and R134a refrigerants. After entering the traditional peak season, the market benefits are relatively obvious, and price fluctuations are also relatively strong.
For this year, as of September, the refrigerant R134a and R125 models are still the most significantly increasing models in recent times. The strong positive factor is cost support, especially the increase in trichloroethylene and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, which has given R134a a strong upward momentum. Manufacturers continue to explore the price, and so far, they have continuously increased by around 2500 to 3000 yuan/ton, which is also the initial upward trend model for refrigerants this year; Next is refrigerant R125, which has currently increased by around 1000-1500 yuan/ton.
Future Market Forecast
From the current cost perspective, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is supported by costs, and manufacturers' profit margins are under significant pressure. In addition, with low social inventory, manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and there is still a possibility of an increase in the future and even in October; The current inventory of manufacturers in the trichloroethylene market is still low, and manufacturers mainly ship long-term orders. In addition to the early maintenance plan and the current unplanned maintenance situation, the market supply pressure is slightly strong, and prices may continue to rise in the future; In terms of chloride, the manufacturer expects to continue to support high level oscillations in the future; Looking at the overall cost side, it is expected that the future market will continue to be strong and positive, supporting the rise of refrigerant prices.
On the demand side, the overall market outlook is expected to continue with downstream end manufacturers in urgent need of restocking. The market is waiting for a recovery in foreign trade, and the overall demand side is slowly supporting the market. Overall, during the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the demand side's foreign trade boost may increase year-on-year, while the domestic trade is expected to rise narrowly. Overall, the demand side is favorable for the development of the refrigerant market.
In terms of the domestic trade market, from historical data, the production of downstream air conditioners, cars, refrigerators, and freezers for refrigerant terminals has increased to varying degrees since September. Especially for air conditioning manufacturers, the production growth is relatively significant, belonging to a small peak of manufacturers' production. There has been an increase in demand for refrigerants. Although the overall demand is limited, it is still partially beneficial to the market and provides support for the refrigerant market.
In terms of exports, for example, refrigerant R22. From the comparison table of refrigerant R22's export data over the years, it can be seen that in September, except for 2018, the export volume of refrigerant R22 market has mostly decreased month on month in most years. On the contrary, in October, the export volume of refrigerant R22 market increased significantly month on month in October, even lasting until November. The export quantity of refrigerant R22 continued to increase month on month until December began to decrease. From the perspective of overall exports, after entering the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the refrigerant market only reached its highest export level in the year from October until November, and the high export focus of the year was also concentrated in October November.
The overall support for the foreign trade market may be delayed in the procurement time of downstream end manufacturers, which may result in a relative time difference. For refrigerants, the favorable situation on the demand side may continue, slowly supporting the upward price of refrigerants during the "golden nine silver ten" period.
From the price trend chart of mainstream refrigerant models in the first three years, it can be seen that after entering the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the prices of various mainstream models have mostly increased, especially the R125 and R134a refrigerants. After entering the traditional peak season, the market benefits are relatively obvious, and price fluctuations are also relatively strong.
For this year, as of September, the refrigerant R134a and R125 models are still the most significantly increasing models in recent times. The strong positive factor is cost support, especially the increase in trichloroethylene and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, which has given R134a a strong upward momentum. Manufacturers continue to explore the price, and so far, they have continuously increased by around 2500 to 3000 yuan/ton, which is also the initial upward trend model for refrigerants this year; Next is refrigerant R125, which has currently increased by around 1000-1500 yuan/ton.
Future Market Forecast
From the current cost perspective, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is supported by costs, and manufacturers' profit margins are under significant pressure. In addition, with low social inventory, manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and there is still a possibility of an increase in the future and even in October; The current inventory of manufacturers in the trichloroethylene market is still low, and manufacturers mainly ship long-term orders. In addition to the early maintenance plan and the current unplanned maintenance situation, the market supply pressure is slightly strong, and prices may continue to rise in the future; In terms of chloride, the manufacturer expects to continue to support high level oscillations in the future; Looking at the overall cost side, it is expected that the future market will continue to be strong and positive, supporting the rise of refrigerant prices.
On the demand side, the overall market outlook is expected to continue with downstream end manufacturers in urgent need of restocking. The market is waiting for a recovery in foreign trade, and the overall demand side is slowly supporting the market. Overall, during the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, the demand side's foreign trade boost may increase year-on-year, while the domestic trade is expected to rise narrowly. Overall, the demand side is favorable for the development of the refrigerant market.
In addition, matters related to the quota policy for third-generation refrigerants have been put on the agenda, which is also beneficial for the refrigerant market.
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