33
In September, the overall viscose staple fiber industry chain showed a strong trend of operation
2023/9/7
In August, the overall category of viscose staple fiber industry chain showed an upward trend. The main logic of market changes lies in the improvement of demand. As the peak season of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season approaches, autumn and winter orders are gradually placed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, forming a positive feedback from bottom to top, ultimately driving prices to rebound and rise. For September, there is still an upward expectation for the raw material end of the viscose staple fiber industry chain, which drives the prices of industry chain products to rise from top to bottom. However, the recovery of terminal demand may not be as expected, and the price increase of industry chain products is limited.
In August, the overall viscose staple fiber industry chain was at a five-year low level, with relatively small fluctuations throughout the year
Sorting out the historical quantiles of viscose staple fiber industry chain prices since 2018, it is shown that most prices, whether for viscose staple fiber or upstream and downstream products, are at a historically low level in the past five years, while substitute cotton and cotton yarn are at a historically high level in the past five years. However, from the price of this year, the overall fluctuation of the viscose staple fiber industry chain price is relatively small. In August, the price of viscose staple fiber slightly increased compared to the low point of the year, while the prices of dissolved pulp and ring spinning R30S were at their lowest points of the year. The price of vortex R30S increased from the low point of the year, with an increase of around 5%.
Looking back at the prices in August, the overall price of the viscose staple fiber industry chain remained stable and rising. Downstream demand has improved, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is still good. The supply side of various links in the adhesive short fiber industry chain is relatively tight, driving the overall price increase in the industry chain. As of August 31, the viscose staple fiber industry chain has dissolved pulp (0%), 32% liquid alkali Jiangsu (10.20%), sulfuric acid (85.21%), carbon disulfide (0%), viscose staple fiber (0.51%), ring spinning R30S (-0.19%), and eddy current R30S (1.42%).
The main reason driving the overall upward trend of industrial chain prices is that the demand from various links forms positive feedback, which drives the price of the industrial chain to rise from bottom to top; At the same time, the rise in raw material prices also forms support from the top down of the cost side; The decrease in inventory at various stages of the industrial chain has further driven up prices. However, it is difficult to improve the profit margin of downstream products of viscose staple fibers, which has suppressed price increases. In August, the price of ring spun human cotton yarn also showed an upward trend, but the increase was limited, and the monthly average price decreased compared to July.
Dynamic changes in profits of the viscose staple fiber industry chain in August
From the perspective of the profit of the viscose staple fiber industry chain, in August, the chlorine alkali loss at the upstream raw material end of the viscose staple fiber industry chain decreased, the profit of the viscose staple fiber decreased, and the loss range of the human cotton yarn varied. Overall, the profit of the industry chain shifted towards the upstream raw material end. The upward transfer of profits in the industrial chain is mainly due to the lower than expected increase in terminal demand and insufficient confidence in downstream products; The decrease in chlor alkali supply at the raw material end and the improvement in the supply and demand pattern make the raw material end more competitive for profits in the industrial chain.
September forecast: There is support on the cost side, and the demand side may improve during the peak season. It is expected that the overall market price of the viscose staple fiber industry chain will show an upward trend, with both cost and supply driven factors present.
Viscose staple fiber: In terms of raw material dissolved pulp, based on the data from major producing countries exporting to China, the import source of dissolved pulp may have decreased in September. Moreover, with the rise of the viscose staple fiber market in August, dissolved pulp factories have a willingness to increase. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an increase in raw material dissolved pulp in early September. And there is still room for growth in other raw materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid. Currently, viscose staple fibers are only operating at breakeven, and the increase in cost will drive the price of viscose staple fibers to keep up with expectations. In terms of demand, September will enter the traditional consumption peak season, and terminal demand will increase. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream yarn enterprises is still good, and some undelivered orders from adhesive short fiber factories can be arranged until the end of September. The inventory of adhesive short fiber factories is slightly tight, and the willingness to increase is strong. Overall, it is expected that the market price of viscose staple fibers will rise in September.
Human cotton yarn: Under the pressure of profit margin losses in the current market, it is expected to follow the trend of strong growth in the raw material market in the short term. In addition, from the perspective of the confidence index of domestic weaving enterprises' raw fabric orders, it was above the boom and bust line in August and showed an upward trend. As of August 31, the confidence index of domestic weaving enterprises' raw fabric orders was 67, indicating a month on month increase in new orders from many weaving enterprises. September will usher in the traditional consumption peak season of "Gold, Silver, and Ten". With the support of "Double 11" orders, the industry chain will gradually increase in popularity. The production of cotton yarn factories and downstream cotton fabric factories will be smooth, and finished product inventory will be maintained at a low level, providing good support for market inventory. However, the current profit margin of downstream people's cotton fabric is not good, and the acceptance of high priced people's cotton yarn may be limited, which suppresses the price increase of people's cotton yarn.
In August, the overall viscose staple fiber industry chain was at a five-year low level, with relatively small fluctuations throughout the year
Sorting out the historical quantiles of viscose staple fiber industry chain prices since 2018, it is shown that most prices, whether for viscose staple fiber or upstream and downstream products, are at a historically low level in the past five years, while substitute cotton and cotton yarn are at a historically high level in the past five years. However, from the price of this year, the overall fluctuation of the viscose staple fiber industry chain price is relatively small. In August, the price of viscose staple fiber slightly increased compared to the low point of the year, while the prices of dissolved pulp and ring spinning R30S were at their lowest points of the year. The price of vortex R30S increased from the low point of the year, with an increase of around 5%.
Looking back at the prices in August, the overall price of the viscose staple fiber industry chain remained stable and rising. Downstream demand has improved, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is still good. The supply side of various links in the adhesive short fiber industry chain is relatively tight, driving the overall price increase in the industry chain. As of August 31, the viscose staple fiber industry chain has dissolved pulp (0%), 32% liquid alkali Jiangsu (10.20%), sulfuric acid (85.21%), carbon disulfide (0%), viscose staple fiber (0.51%), ring spinning R30S (-0.19%), and eddy current R30S (1.42%).
The main reason driving the overall upward trend of industrial chain prices is that the demand from various links forms positive feedback, which drives the price of the industrial chain to rise from bottom to top; At the same time, the rise in raw material prices also forms support from the top down of the cost side; The decrease in inventory at various stages of the industrial chain has further driven up prices. However, it is difficult to improve the profit margin of downstream products of viscose staple fibers, which has suppressed price increases. In August, the price of ring spun human cotton yarn also showed an upward trend, but the increase was limited, and the monthly average price decreased compared to July.
Dynamic changes in profits of the viscose staple fiber industry chain in August
From the perspective of the profit of the viscose staple fiber industry chain, in August, the chlorine alkali loss at the upstream raw material end of the viscose staple fiber industry chain decreased, the profit of the viscose staple fiber decreased, and the loss range of the human cotton yarn varied. Overall, the profit of the industry chain shifted towards the upstream raw material end. The upward transfer of profits in the industrial chain is mainly due to the lower than expected increase in terminal demand and insufficient confidence in downstream products; The decrease in chlor alkali supply at the raw material end and the improvement in the supply and demand pattern make the raw material end more competitive for profits in the industrial chain.
September forecast: There is support on the cost side, and the demand side may improve during the peak season. It is expected that the overall market price of the viscose staple fiber industry chain will show an upward trend, with both cost and supply driven factors present.
Viscose staple fiber: In terms of raw material dissolved pulp, based on the data from major producing countries exporting to China, the import source of dissolved pulp may have decreased in September. Moreover, with the rise of the viscose staple fiber market in August, dissolved pulp factories have a willingness to increase. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an increase in raw material dissolved pulp in early September. And there is still room for growth in other raw materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid. Currently, viscose staple fibers are only operating at breakeven, and the increase in cost will drive the price of viscose staple fibers to keep up with expectations. In terms of demand, September will enter the traditional consumption peak season, and terminal demand will increase. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream yarn enterprises is still good, and some undelivered orders from adhesive short fiber factories can be arranged until the end of September. The inventory of adhesive short fiber factories is slightly tight, and the willingness to increase is strong. Overall, it is expected that the market price of viscose staple fibers will rise in September.
Human cotton yarn: Under the pressure of profit margin losses in the current market, it is expected to follow the trend of strong growth in the raw material market in the short term. In addition, from the perspective of the confidence index of domestic weaving enterprises' raw fabric orders, it was above the boom and bust line in August and showed an upward trend. As of August 31, the confidence index of domestic weaving enterprises' raw fabric orders was 67, indicating a month on month increase in new orders from many weaving enterprises. September will usher in the traditional consumption peak season of "Gold, Silver, and Ten". With the support of "Double 11" orders, the industry chain will gradually increase in popularity. The production of cotton yarn factories and downstream cotton fabric factories will be smooth, and finished product inventory will be maintained at a low level, providing good support for market inventory. However, the current profit margin of downstream people's cotton fabric is not good, and the acceptance of high priced people's cotton yarn may be limited, which suppresses the price increase of people's cotton yarn.
Overall, it is expected that the overall viscose staple fiber industry chain will show a strong trend in September. Mainly due to the main driving factors such as rising raw material prices, mild recovery of terminal demand, and low inventory in various links, all of which have a positive impact on the viscose staple fiber industry chain, resulting in opportunities for growth in various links of the industry chain and an upward trend.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
