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Nylon 6: Pull up and push down to stabilize the market
2023/9/7
Strong costs, improved demand, and decreased supply
Since August, the domestic polyamide-6 (nylon 6) market has experienced a softening trend after experiencing a rebound in July. As of August 25th, the mainstream transaction prices of nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and high-speed spinning chips have reached 13350 yuan (ton price, the same below) and 14250 yuan, respectively, a decrease of 2.2% and 1.4% compared to the beginning of the month. The industry believes that with the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", with the help of strong costs and improved demand, the upward and downward push will stabilize and warm up the nylon 6 market.
This year's market situation is a bit different, and many people believe that adjusting in July and pulling up in August is more reasonable. In fact, it is not entirely the case. The market is already ever-changing, especially this year, with various uncertain factors increasing, the consolidation of the market in August is more conducive to consolidating the foundation of the future market. From the trend chart of the nylon 6 industry chain, it can be seen that the upstream and downstream products of the pure benzene caprolactam nylon 6 nylon filament and weaving industry chain are overall In a pull up and push down trend, during which the market has not deviated from the law of supply and demand. From the market approaching the end of August, based on the emergence of basic benefits such as strong costs, improved demand, and declining supply, August is more like a promising market. It is expected that the market will stabilize and recover in September Senior market commentator Shao Huiwen said so.
Strong cost support
According to statistics from Business Society, as of early August, the prices of pure benzene and caprolactam in China have risen to 7770 yuan and 13200 yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 26% and 12.3%. During the same period, nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and high-speed spinning chips increased to 13550 yuan and 14450 yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 14.7% and 11.2%.
Shao Huiwen stated that although the nylon 6 chip market showed a softening trend in August, from a cost perspective, the basic raw material in the upstream industry chain of nylon 6, pure benzene, has been in a strong state since the significant increase in July, and there is still a slight upward trend towards the end of August. The caprolactam market has started consolidation due to the strong strength of pure benzene, but the possibility of a significant decline is also not high. It is expected that the cost of nylon 6 will still show strong support in the near future.
Expected improvement on the demand side
Data statistics show that as of August 24th, the average load of the nylon filament industry is 80%; The operating rate of the domestic weaving industry is 64.28%; The operating rate of fishing net enterprises is around 80%; The operating rate of short fiber enterprises is over 60%. The overall demand for nylon 6 continues to show a steady growth trend.
According to Ye Quan, Deputy General Manager of Sales at China Pingmei Shenma Nylon Technology Co., Ltd., the current production enthusiasm of spinning enterprises still exists, and the demand is still acceptable. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and the gradual retreat of high-temperature weather, it is expected that the industry load will continue to the current level in the short term. In terms of terminal weaving, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 64%. With the improvement of the ordering atmosphere in the autumn and winter seasons, and the expected demand for "Golden Nine Silver Ten" to some extent, the downstream mentality is boosted. In the short term, the terminal weaving operating rate is expected to continue to maintain a high level. In addition, due to the recent increase in demand for high-speed spinning semi gloss chips, some enterprises have shifted production lines to semi gloss chips.
Supply side production decline
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the comprehensive operating rate of nylon 6 in early August was 76.85%, and by August 25th, the operating rate had dropped to 75.25%. In addition, the inventory of nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and nylon 6 high-speed spinning chips showed a slight downward trend in late August, and there are still plans for maintenance by enterprises. Under multiple factors, the overall domestic production of nylon 6 has decreased.
Recently, there has been a slight decline in the overall production of nylon 6 polymerization enterprises. The production of conventional spinning chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained relatively low. Currently, Jinjiang Technology is still undergoing maintenance, and the Shanxi Lubao polymerization unit plans to follow the shutdown of caprolactam in mid September, all of which have caused a decrease in nylon 6 social supply. Our current high-speed spinning chip inventory is only 3 days, and conventional spinning chips are only 12 days, and production enterprises do not have inventory pressure. In addition, the nylon 6 market is experiencing 8 days of inventory pressure After the narrow consolidation in the month, downstream enterprises' inventory has been consumed, and their inventory readiness is gradually increasing Wang Jianfei, Minister of Market Integration Department of China Pingmei Shenma Nylon Technology Co., Ltd.
Cui Huajie, the person in charge of Henan Ruiyuan Xinneng Chemical Operations, reported that towards the end of August, due to the impact of the settlement price of Sinopec's caprolactam contract and the planned maintenance of some polymerization units, downstream enterprises of nylon 6 have purchased and restocked nylon 6 chips, and some low-priced goods have gradually decreased, and even some enterprises have pre-sales.
Since August, the domestic polyamide-6 (nylon 6) market has experienced a softening trend after experiencing a rebound in July. As of August 25th, the mainstream transaction prices of nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and high-speed spinning chips have reached 13350 yuan (ton price, the same below) and 14250 yuan, respectively, a decrease of 2.2% and 1.4% compared to the beginning of the month. The industry believes that with the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", with the help of strong costs and improved demand, the upward and downward push will stabilize and warm up the nylon 6 market.
This year's market situation is a bit different, and many people believe that adjusting in July and pulling up in August is more reasonable. In fact, it is not entirely the case. The market is already ever-changing, especially this year, with various uncertain factors increasing, the consolidation of the market in August is more conducive to consolidating the foundation of the future market. From the trend chart of the nylon 6 industry chain, it can be seen that the upstream and downstream products of the pure benzene caprolactam nylon 6 nylon filament and weaving industry chain are overall In a pull up and push down trend, during which the market has not deviated from the law of supply and demand. From the market approaching the end of August, based on the emergence of basic benefits such as strong costs, improved demand, and declining supply, August is more like a promising market. It is expected that the market will stabilize and recover in September Senior market commentator Shao Huiwen said so.
Strong cost support
According to statistics from Business Society, as of early August, the prices of pure benzene and caprolactam in China have risen to 7770 yuan and 13200 yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 26% and 12.3%. During the same period, nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and high-speed spinning chips increased to 13550 yuan and 14450 yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 14.7% and 11.2%.
Shao Huiwen stated that although the nylon 6 chip market showed a softening trend in August, from a cost perspective, the basic raw material in the upstream industry chain of nylon 6, pure benzene, has been in a strong state since the significant increase in July, and there is still a slight upward trend towards the end of August. The caprolactam market has started consolidation due to the strong strength of pure benzene, but the possibility of a significant decline is also not high. It is expected that the cost of nylon 6 will still show strong support in the near future.
Expected improvement on the demand side
Data statistics show that as of August 24th, the average load of the nylon filament industry is 80%; The operating rate of the domestic weaving industry is 64.28%; The operating rate of fishing net enterprises is around 80%; The operating rate of short fiber enterprises is over 60%. The overall demand for nylon 6 continues to show a steady growth trend.
According to Ye Quan, Deputy General Manager of Sales at China Pingmei Shenma Nylon Technology Co., Ltd., the current production enthusiasm of spinning enterprises still exists, and the demand is still acceptable. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and the gradual retreat of high-temperature weather, it is expected that the industry load will continue to the current level in the short term. In terms of terminal weaving, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 64%. With the improvement of the ordering atmosphere in the autumn and winter seasons, and the expected demand for "Golden Nine Silver Ten" to some extent, the downstream mentality is boosted. In the short term, the terminal weaving operating rate is expected to continue to maintain a high level. In addition, due to the recent increase in demand for high-speed spinning semi gloss chips, some enterprises have shifted production lines to semi gloss chips.
Supply side production decline
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the comprehensive operating rate of nylon 6 in early August was 76.85%, and by August 25th, the operating rate had dropped to 75.25%. In addition, the inventory of nylon 6 conventional spinning chips and nylon 6 high-speed spinning chips showed a slight downward trend in late August, and there are still plans for maintenance by enterprises. Under multiple factors, the overall domestic production of nylon 6 has decreased.
Recently, there has been a slight decline in the overall production of nylon 6 polymerization enterprises. The production of conventional spinning chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained relatively low. Currently, Jinjiang Technology is still undergoing maintenance, and the Shanxi Lubao polymerization unit plans to follow the shutdown of caprolactam in mid September, all of which have caused a decrease in nylon 6 social supply. Our current high-speed spinning chip inventory is only 3 days, and conventional spinning chips are only 12 days, and production enterprises do not have inventory pressure. In addition, the nylon 6 market is experiencing 8 days of inventory pressure After the narrow consolidation in the month, downstream enterprises' inventory has been consumed, and their inventory readiness is gradually increasing Wang Jianfei, Minister of Market Integration Department of China Pingmei Shenma Nylon Technology Co., Ltd.
Cui Huajie, the person in charge of Henan Ruiyuan Xinneng Chemical Operations, reported that towards the end of August, due to the impact of the settlement price of Sinopec's caprolactam contract and the planned maintenance of some polymerization units, downstream enterprises of nylon 6 have purchased and restocked nylon 6 chips, and some low-priced goods have gradually decreased, and even some enterprises have pre-sales.
Ye Quan stated that in September, despite the relatively high cost of polymerization slicing and the subsequent maintenance of polymerization equipment or a decrease in supply, downstream enterprises' procurement expectations increased, and there is still a possibility of a slight increase in the price of nylon 6 slicing.
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