The future trend of LPG futures still follows crude oil and fundamentals
2023/7/13
"The driving force of LPG futures continues to strengthen is the rise in crude oil and the strengthening of the fundamentals." Li Anchao, Li Anchao, liquefied gas analyst at Jin Lianchuang, said that the contract price and the spot price of crude oil prices and liquefied air disks at the end of May have plummeted. The end of the end fell. In early June, the price of liquefied gas futures was weak oscillation, and it fell to the low point on the 13th. After that, the crude oil rebounded to drive the price of LPG prices to rise. The crude oil fell sharply during the Dragon Boat Festival. After the opening of the futures on June 26, the products could be replenished. The liquefied gas futures fell significantly, and then continued to oscillate. "From the recent trend, the trend of the LPG futures disk is both guided by the direction of crude oil and is also supported or suppressed by the fundamentals."
During the interview, the reporter learned that the current LPG market's emotional warmth is mainly reflected in the improvement of the shipments of refineries and docks, the enthusiastic improvement of downstream pickups, and the warming atmosphere of market negotiation.
Longzhong Information Analysts believe that the emotional warming of the LPG spot market is mainly from the rebound of the international market and the tightening of supply. The international oil prices are strong, the demand for liquefied gas overweight has increased, and the price of liquefied outer disk continues to rise. The rise in import costs in August further boosted market sentiment and confidence. "Especially in the South China region, which is mainly based on burning, the early price fell near the cost line. The outer market continued to rebound and boost market sentiment, and actively entered the market to make up for the market." He said.
According to the above analysts, the recent strong oil prices and increased interest in buyers in the international liquefied gas market have increased, and Saudi CP expects to rise for 5 consecutive trading days. The new bidding information in the market in August has boosted market sentiment, especially in the second half of August, China's demand will increase, and buyers will increase their prices. In addition, due to liquefied gas and stones, the price difference between liquefied gas and stone brain, increased demand for cracking devices, increased the demand for equal proportions, and narrowed the price difference between propylexane.
"At present, it is supported by Saudi crude oil reduction. In August, CP continued to rise, market buyers increased, and some ship loading plans were advanced. From the perspective of the domestic market, although the downstream is still in the low season of traditional consumption, the market is buying up and not buying a decline. Supporting the market is active, the refinery shipments are smooth, and most manufacturers can reach a state of production and sales balance. "Li Anchao said.
In Li Anchao's view, the downstream replenishment time will not last long. "On the one hand, the need for combustion is still the off -season of traditional consumption. At present, the pre -storage stock inventory is basically consumed. It will have a dirty database operation. As the market price continues to rise, the downstream conflict has continued to breed the purchase enthusiasm or fading. On the one hand, in terms of industrial demand, the PDH device has maintained a high level, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. "He said.
Regarding the recent strong LPG futures, Liu Shunchang, an analyst of Nanhua Futures, believes that this trend has exceeded market expectations. In his opinion, in recent trading days, LPG's loose fundamentals have not changed much.
Liu Shunchang told reporters that the number of supply in the Middle East and North America has increased, and the Middle East is expected to export 4 million tons in July, which is the same as in June; Iran exports in June to reach a record high of 1 million tons; Paste the water on the shore still maintained a single digit, and the purchase emotions are average.
In his opinion, the driver of the strong LPG futures price is not in its own fundamental aspect, and it is mainly affected by the strengthening of the strengthening of PP in crude oil and downstream chemicals. "Affected by the supply side of the supply side OPEC+production and the American SPR supplementary library, the cloth oil broke up the rail of the interval of $ 71.5-78.5/barrel, breaking the oscillating range that lasted more than two months, and the trend was strong." He said.
"The future trend of LPG futures is still following the crude oil and fundamentals. OPEC+continues to reduce production. Asian demand is expected to grow, it is expected that crude oil or strong oscillation." Li Anchao believes that from the spot fundamental perspective Rushing, the inventory of domestic refineries is low, and the downstream replenishment is still possible. In the short term, it is stable. Coupled with the obvious decrease in the aircraft, it is expected that the recent LPG trend will continue to be strong.
It is worth noting that at present, domestic burning demand is still in the off -season, and the downstream consumption ability has not substantially improved. "At present, the downstream stocking is not strong, and after recent replenishment, social inventory has increased and it needs to be consumed. Although the spot price still has room for increase, it does not continue to push power." Industry insiders said.
In Liu Shunchang's view, LPG rises in the future, depending on crude oil and downstream chemical PP. "After the short -term cloth oil exceeds the oscillating range of $ 71.5-78.5/barrel, the rising momentum is enhanced, and the LPG driving will continue. You need to observe the $ 80/barrel integer mark and continue up upward space." Liu Shunchang believes that based on high inflation -oriented -based on high inflation The continuous negative impact of high interest rates on the global macro and crude oil demand side. It is expected that crude oil is relatively limited. In the later period, the inflection point of LPG needs to wait for the weakening of crude oil and downstream chemical PP.
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