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Analysts: The rhythm of the energy of polyester industry chain may slow down
2023/7/13
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice of the "Energy Effective Benefits and Bexiary levels (2023 Edition)" of the key areas of industrial industry. Most of the industrial products involved are high -energy production technology, and the capacity of production capacity is relatively surplus.
"For chemicals, this will help achieve the elimination of backward production capacity in the chemical industry, the industry supply is clear, and the supply and demand pattern will improve." Zijin Tianfeng Futures analyst Liu Siqi said.
According to Zhu Lidang, Zhejiang merchant futures analyst, the above -mentioned policies have a limited impact on most chemicals. Because high -energy coal production capacity and backward process are basically on the edge of the elimination due to poor benefits, although the policy has a certain role in promoting the elimination of production capacity, the actual impact is not great.
Taking the polyester industry as an example, the reporter learned that the current polyester industry is in a centralized launch cycle of the upstream private refining and chemical capacity, and the supply and demand of the industrial chain are relatively excessive.
"In recent years, newly put into production devices such as PX and PTA in the polyester industry chain is large, with new application technology, relatively low comprehensive energy consumption, and cost advantages in the industry. As new capacity is put on the ground, some of the yields are available, and some of the production are produced. Small and high energy consumption devices have spontaneously eliminated production capacity or stop. "Liu Siqi said.
"As far as the polyester industry is concerned, the production capacity of upstream and downstream is excessive, especially the upstream raw material end. From PX to PTA and ethylene glycols are in large expansion of production capacity, the supply of excess supply." Zhu Lidang said that in recent years, in recent years, in recent years, in recent years Many high -energy coal -consuming devices such as glycol also withdrawn from the market one after another, and newly put into production devices are mainly refining and chemical integration. "From the perspective of energy efficiency, the industrial installation is in the process of updating and replacement. It is currently transformed into the integratedization of large refining and chemicals, and the level of energy efficiency has been significantly improved." He said.
In fact, in recent years, the polyester industry has experienced survival of the fittest, and its production capacity is mainly concentrated on PTA. "The industrial chain pattern was once changed from excess capacity to a state of supply and demand balance, which also caused PTA processing costs to greatly improve in 2022. However, as integrated devices have been put into operation one after another, PTA's current industry is still excess." PTA production capacity is mainly based on refining and chemical integration devices, and the cost of production production is reduced compared to before.
In this regard, Pang Chunyan, chief analyst of Guozhong Futures Chemical Industry, also said that the large -scale and integration advantages of PTA newly -produced devices, and the change of new and old devices is also continuing. "At present, the domestic PTA production capacity is 76.44 million tons, and the production capacity of parking is 7.7 million tons, mostly a device for backward or lack of integrated supporting facilities." She said that the installations of old -fashioned PTA manufacturers such as Japan and South Korea have lagged behind. Part of the production of other products, a small amount of operation.
"Although the domestic PTA is accelerated, while domestic production capacity is eliminated, foreign production capacity is also shrinking." Pang Chunyan told reporters that the export pattern of PTA in my country has gradually opened. In the first half of this year, the monthly export volume was more than 400,000 tons. Therefore, when the domestic PTA is put into production, the backward production capacity at home and abroad is de -production.
In Zhu Lidang's view, in the future, it is difficult for PTA to have a large production capacity. "The production capacity of old and small devices is basically clear, and the rest is mainly large devices. The cost of process is low, and it is not easy to concentrate production capacity." He said that if India supply the PTA supply certification on mainland China If you do not put on the list, it will still have a certain impact on the PTA supply market.
It is understood that India's BIS certification of PTA suppliers in mainland China will expire at the end of June, and from the recent list of global PTA suppliers with BIS certification announced by India, mainland PTA suppliers are not on this list for the time being.
"India is the largest exporter of PTA in my country. In 2022, the average export of exports reached 80,000 tons. For the BIS certification, some companies prepare in advance. It is expected that the proportion of PTA in India will increase in the first half of this year. Frequent. "Liu Siqi said that the total PTA exports in the second half of the year or after the demand is the same as the first half of the year.
In Liu Siqi's view, in the past two or three years, the PTA production capacity of elimination and long -term stop has reached 10%of the total production capacity. Most small high -energy energy -consuming devices have basically achieved the elimination of production capacity, and the future production capacity de -rhythm will not accelerate significantly. It is worth mentioning that the current chemical market is in a period of high production capacity. It has superimposed domestic consumption and export contraction in recent years, and the chemical market has performed poorly.
"Although the prices of chemicals are often dominated by macro surfaces, fundamental analysis will be temporarily invalidated, but after the backlook of consumption in the market, it can pay attention to the bandic opportunities of low inventory and low investment varieties. Pang Chunyan analyzed.
"For chemicals, this will help achieve the elimination of backward production capacity in the chemical industry, the industry supply is clear, and the supply and demand pattern will improve." Zijin Tianfeng Futures analyst Liu Siqi said.
According to Zhu Lidang, Zhejiang merchant futures analyst, the above -mentioned policies have a limited impact on most chemicals. Because high -energy coal production capacity and backward process are basically on the edge of the elimination due to poor benefits, although the policy has a certain role in promoting the elimination of production capacity, the actual impact is not great.
Taking the polyester industry as an example, the reporter learned that the current polyester industry is in a centralized launch cycle of the upstream private refining and chemical capacity, and the supply and demand of the industrial chain are relatively excessive.
"In recent years, newly put into production devices such as PX and PTA in the polyester industry chain is large, with new application technology, relatively low comprehensive energy consumption, and cost advantages in the industry. As new capacity is put on the ground, some of the yields are available, and some of the production are produced. Small and high energy consumption devices have spontaneously eliminated production capacity or stop. "Liu Siqi said.
"As far as the polyester industry is concerned, the production capacity of upstream and downstream is excessive, especially the upstream raw material end. From PX to PTA and ethylene glycols are in large expansion of production capacity, the supply of excess supply." Zhu Lidang said that in recent years, in recent years, in recent years, in recent years Many high -energy coal -consuming devices such as glycol also withdrawn from the market one after another, and newly put into production devices are mainly refining and chemical integration. "From the perspective of energy efficiency, the industrial installation is in the process of updating and replacement. It is currently transformed into the integratedization of large refining and chemicals, and the level of energy efficiency has been significantly improved." He said.
In fact, in recent years, the polyester industry has experienced survival of the fittest, and its production capacity is mainly concentrated on PTA. "The industrial chain pattern was once changed from excess capacity to a state of supply and demand balance, which also caused PTA processing costs to greatly improve in 2022. However, as integrated devices have been put into operation one after another, PTA's current industry is still excess." PTA production capacity is mainly based on refining and chemical integration devices, and the cost of production production is reduced compared to before.
In this regard, Pang Chunyan, chief analyst of Guozhong Futures Chemical Industry, also said that the large -scale and integration advantages of PTA newly -produced devices, and the change of new and old devices is also continuing. "At present, the domestic PTA production capacity is 76.44 million tons, and the production capacity of parking is 7.7 million tons, mostly a device for backward or lack of integrated supporting facilities." She said that the installations of old -fashioned PTA manufacturers such as Japan and South Korea have lagged behind. Part of the production of other products, a small amount of operation.
"Although the domestic PTA is accelerated, while domestic production capacity is eliminated, foreign production capacity is also shrinking." Pang Chunyan told reporters that the export pattern of PTA in my country has gradually opened. In the first half of this year, the monthly export volume was more than 400,000 tons. Therefore, when the domestic PTA is put into production, the backward production capacity at home and abroad is de -production.
In Zhu Lidang's view, in the future, it is difficult for PTA to have a large production capacity. "The production capacity of old and small devices is basically clear, and the rest is mainly large devices. The cost of process is low, and it is not easy to concentrate production capacity." He said that if India supply the PTA supply certification on mainland China If you do not put on the list, it will still have a certain impact on the PTA supply market.
It is understood that India's BIS certification of PTA suppliers in mainland China will expire at the end of June, and from the recent list of global PTA suppliers with BIS certification announced by India, mainland PTA suppliers are not on this list for the time being.
"India is the largest exporter of PTA in my country. In 2022, the average export of exports reached 80,000 tons. For the BIS certification, some companies prepare in advance. It is expected that the proportion of PTA in India will increase in the first half of this year. Frequent. "Liu Siqi said that the total PTA exports in the second half of the year or after the demand is the same as the first half of the year.
In Liu Siqi's view, in the past two or three years, the PTA production capacity of elimination and long -term stop has reached 10%of the total production capacity. Most small high -energy energy -consuming devices have basically achieved the elimination of production capacity, and the future production capacity de -rhythm will not accelerate significantly. It is worth mentioning that the current chemical market is in a period of high production capacity. It has superimposed domestic consumption and export contraction in recent years, and the chemical market has performed poorly.
"Although the prices of chemicals are often dominated by macro surfaces, fundamental analysis will be temporarily invalidated, but after the backlook of consumption in the market, it can pay attention to the bandic opportunities of low inventory and low investment varieties. Pang Chunyan analyzed.
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