Policy changes improve market expectations Glass, soda ash futures prices soar
2023/6/5
On Friday, the domestic futures market performance of the energy and chemical sectors, including glass led the futures market, soda ash rose more than 4%. Since March 22, a new high. Soda ash, driven by the glass surge, rebounded strongly by 4.39%, touching a high of 1,749 yuan / ton, and the overnight market closed steady at 1,700 yuan / ton mark.
According to reports, Qingdao Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, the People's Bank of China Qingdao Central Branch and the China Banking Regulatory Commission Qingdao Regulatory Bureau jointly issued a "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" on June 1, adjusting the down payment ratio for home purchases in non-restricted areas of Qingdao, while optimizing the conditions of restricted sales to support the rigid demand and improved demand. Qingdao non-restricted purchase area down payment ratio of the first set of minimum adjustment to 20%, the second set of minimum adjustment to 30%; on the policy of reducing the down payment of each bank has been fully notified to the project on June 1, CCB, ICBC, Bank of Communications and other banks have basically confirmed the start of implementation.
"Friday glass futures rose sharply, mainly due to market expectations and improved sentiment." CITIC CITIC Futures related analysts believe that the domestic property market after many months of policy window period, Qingdao property policy changes on market sentiment played an obvious driving role. The market is expected to have more stable real estate policies introduced in the near future, especially the policy of guaranteed delivery of buildings is expected to further compaction, the completed end of the glass demand or usher in a boost.
However, Guoxin futures hinted that as market sentiment strengthens, speculative demand may strengthen next, but there is still uncertainty whether the news can be fully realized.
Can the change in property policy bring long-term benefits to the glass and soda ash market? The above-mentioned CITIC Capital Futures analysts believe that short-term market sentiment improved, glass futures prices rose sharply, is expected to form a boost to the spot market, is expected to improve the recent glass spot transactions, inventory rising trend or temporarily ended; medium-term view, glass demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year, the completion data is expected to continue a higher growth rate.
Guotai Junan futures energy and chemical chief researcher Zhang Chi said that in the medium term, although the market is still expected to peak season, but the current real estate market is still weak, trading season is not expected to start too early. The market needs time to further digest the blow to market confidence from the continued dip over the past month. "If the peak season hoarding operation is started too early, the glass market may not be robust this year." He said.
Everbright futures research report said that the soda ash varieties of the current fundamental upside drive is more limited, more news and emotional boost, the plate rebound sustained degree remains to be seen, the follow-up if the reversal will require more favorable factors to cash.
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