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The strong cost support of autumn fertilizer raw materials is mainly due to the high price of wheat fertilizer

Word:[Big][Middle][Small] 2024/7/11     Viewed:    
Recently, a few compound fertilizer factories have held meetings. Taking 45% chlorine based high nitrogen wheat fertilizer as an example (such as 25-13-7/24-14-7), the factory prices of large factories are concentrated around 2820-2880 yuan (ton price, the same below), but with various preferential policies, the actual transaction price is above 2700 yuan, and some low-end prices are above 2600 yuan. It can be seen that the mainstream market for compound fertilizers in autumn is about to be determined. Overall, the price of high nitrogen wheat fertilizer is indeed higher than expected, and downstream may find it difficult to accept in the short term. However, the high opening of compound fertilizer prices is actually closely related to the market situation of raw materials such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, not only in terms of price, but also to the overall market atmosphere and later trends.

As the protagonist of the fertilizer market, urea's market trend affects the entire fertilizer market. Recently, the prices of urea factories in the main production areas have slightly declined, and some areas have been affected by factors such as rainfall and drought, which have hindered the application of topdressing. There is still demand in agriculture, but progress is slow. Downstream demand for topdressing has slowed down, and industrial demand for urea is temporarily light. The industry is paying more attention to the autumn fertilizer production start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises. Although the urea market has slightly declined in the short term, looking at the recent urea prices, it is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the mainstream ex factory price in Shandong is still close to 2300 yuan. Even if there is a decline, the urea market will not be too bad, and there may be a possibility of price increase due to some positive factors.

Autumn is the home field of ammonium phosphate, and the industry has relatively strong confidence in ammonium phosphate. Although some downstream companies were not very receptive to the high price of ammonium phosphate in the early stage, and procurement slowed down, recently downstream companies have gradually accepted the high price of ammonium phosphate. This is mainly due to the fact that ammonium phosphate enterprises are not worried about being ready for shipment, and the quantity of goods released is relatively small. In addition, the recent price increase of sulfur and phosphate rock, the industry believes that ammonium phosphate may remain strong, and there is currently no possibility of price reduction. They are also afraid that high prices may not be able to purchase spot goods in the later stage. Therefore, some companies have procurement plans in the near future, otherwise their inventory of autumn fertilizer production raw materials will not be enough. Recently, the price of ammonium phosphate factories has increased slightly, with a range of about 50 yuan. There are also higher prices in the market, but some factories have It is reported that the actual transactions are mostly based on the initial price, Pay attention to whether the price of ammonium after the price increase can be confirmed in the later stage.

The potassium chloride market was relatively sluggish in the past few days, mainly due to downstream customers waiting for large contracts to be signed, resulting in weak purchasing willingness. After the signing of the large contract yesterday, the price was indeed only over 270 US dollars, with a cost of less than 2400 yuan. Moreover, the supply of goods will increase in the later stage, so downstream customers are definitely not interested in the current price of around 2650 yuan. Traders will also start to rush to ship, and the overall market atmosphere will be bearish. However, in reality, the supply of goods is relatively concentrated, and the goods should not be replenished immediately. There will not be a serious situation of oversupply in the market in the short term, so the possibility of a significant decline in potassium chloride is not high at the moment. Potassium sulfate is affected by the bearish sentiment of potassium chloride, and sales are not ideal. However, the factory has a large number of pending orders, which can generally be executed until the end of the month, so the pressure is not high temporarily.

Overall, although there has been a recent trend of price reduction for some autumn fertilizer raw materials, it is difficult to see a significant decrease in the short term, and there is still a chance for rebound. In terms of raw material ammonium, it has been strong with a slight increase in recent times, indicating that the cost support for autumn fertilizer raw materials is strong. Wheat fertilizer prices should mainly increase, but there will be a series of policies.


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