Industry News
The surge in refined oil products in Europe and America has driven crude oil prices to rise for the third consecutive day
2. US Energy Information Agency data: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.52 million barrels
The prospect of a ceasefire in the Israel Hamas conflict seems increasingly bleak, with US production slowing down and European and American crude oil futures slightly rising for the third consecutive day. The increase in US crude oil inventories has limited the rise in oil prices. On Wednesday (February 7th), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil for March 2024 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $73.86 per barrel, an increase of $0.55 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $73.23-74.22; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange for April 2024 is $79.21 per barrel, an increase of $0.62 or 0.79% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $78.49 to $79.5.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated at a press conference on the 7th that he rejects the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas)'s demand for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu made these comments shortly after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Analysts believe that the conflict between Israel and Hamas may drag the United States into direct confrontation with a Middle Eastern country. If so, the Strait of Hormuz, which a Middle Eastern country can control, could lead to a disruption in oil supply.
The slowdown in US oil production growth may raise market concerns. The US Energy Information Agency predicted in its Short Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday that domestic crude oil production in the United States will increase by 170000 barrels per day this year, significantly lower than the previous forecast of 290000 barrels by the US Energy Information Agency. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, said that despite the current oversupply in the market, the world will face severe supply shortages by the end of 2025 due to insufficient replenishment of crude oil reserves. He also said, "Our current situation is that our supply will be very scarce in a few years."
According to data from the US Energy Information Agency, OPEC's daily total crude oil production in January 2024 was 26.25 million barrels, a decrease of 320000 barrels from the total daily crude oil production in December 2023. Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production is 8.9 million barrels, an increase of 100000 barrels from the average daily output in December last year. The daily average crude oil production capacity of OPEC in January was 31.09 million barrels, an increase of 91000 barrels from December last year; The daily average crude oil production capacity of member countries in the Middle East region is 26.51 million barrels, an increase of 351000 barrels from December; The daily production capacity of crude oil in other regions is 4.58 million barrels, a decrease of 260000 barrels. In January, OPEC's daily remaining production capacity was 4.84 million barrels, an increase of 411000 barrels from December, with the majority in the Middle East region.
Last week, the operating rate of US refineries continued to decline, crude oil production returned to historical highs, net crude oil imports increased significantly, crude oil inventories increased, and finished oil inventories decreased. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, as of the week ending February 2, 2024, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 78544.9 million barrels, an increase of 6.135 million barrels from the previous week; The inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States is 42743.2 million barrels, an increase of 5.52 million barrels from the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States is 2509.88 million barrels, a decrease of 3.145 million barrels from the previous week; The inventory of distillate oil was 127574 million barrels, a decrease of 3.22 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory is 6.08% lower than the same period last year; 4% lower than the same period in the past five years; Gasoline inventory is 4.75% higher than the same period last year; 1% lower than the same period in the past five years; Distillate oil inventory is 5.85% higher than the same period last year and 7% lower than the same period in the past five years. The total commercial oil inventory in the United States decreased by 4.46 million barrels. The average daily processing volume of refineries in the United States is 14.84 million barrels, a decrease of 9000 barrels from the previous week; The operating rate of the refinery is 82.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week. Last week, the average daily import volume of crude oil in the United States was 6.97 million barrels, an increase of 1.302 million barrels from the previous week. The average daily export volume of refined oil was 637.2 barrels, an increase of 447000 barrels from the previous week. The highly anticipated crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, USA, decreased by 33000 barrels to 28.061 million barrels. In the past week, the US strategic oil reserves have increased by 615000 barrels to 3580.17 million barrels.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, as of the week ending February 2, 2024, the daily average crude oil exports from the United States were 3.596 million barrels, a decrease of 298000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 696000 barrels from the same period last year. In the past four weeks, the daily average export volume of crude oil from the United States has reached 4.238 million barrels, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily crude oil exports from the United States have reached 4.124 million barrels, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year. In the past week, the daily average net import volume of crude oil from the United States has been 3.311 million barrels, an increase of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. The daily average net export volume of refined oil products from the United States is 4.293 million barrels, an increase of 40000 barrels from the previous week. The net exports of crude oil and refined oil from the United States averaged 982000 barrels per day, a decrease of 1.56 million barrels from the previous week.
As of the week ending February 2nd, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.3 million barrels, an increase of 300000 barrels from the previous Sunday's average production and an increase of 1 million barrels from the same period last year; As of the four weeks ending February 2nd, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 12.975 million barrels, 6.1% higher than the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily crude oil production in the United States has reached 13 million barrels, an increase of 6400 barrels year-on-year.
The demand for gasoline and distillate oil in the United States has increased. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, as of the four weeks ending February 2, 2024, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the United States was 19.943 million barrels, 0.8% lower than the same period last year; The daily average demand for gasoline for vehicles is 8.275 million barrels per week, which is the same as the same period last year; The average daily demand for distillate oil is 3.751 million barrels, which is 2.3% lower than the same period last year; The daily average demand for kerosene based aviation fuel is 0.4% lower than the same period last year. In a single week of demand, the total daily oil demand in the United States is 20.227 million barrels, 108000 barrels higher than the previous week; The daily demand for gasoline in the United States is 8.807 million barrels, which is 663000 barrels higher than the previous week; The daily average demand for distillate oil is 3.817 million barrels, which is 60000 barrels higher than the previous week's daily average.
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