Industry News
The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is at a high level and fluctuates to prevent post holiday adjustment
Entering February, although many domestic butadiene plants have maintained normal operation, there have been export negotiations for domestic supply in the early stage, and the market supply has been tight, providing some support for the market. Coupled with high supplier prices, it has boosted the mentality of merchants. As the price of butadiene rises to a high level, profits in some downstream industries are under pressure, the operating load has decreased, and the demand side has declined, which has a certain drag on the market situation. Jinlianchuang believes that under the game of supply and demand fundamentals, it is expected that although there is room for a decline in the domestic butadiene market in February, there is still support at the bottom, and the overall trend is high volatility consolidation. Pay attention to market transactions.
In February, the start of production will decrease, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. Although some tire companies with good order performance will not take a break, most of them will go through a phase of reducing or stopping production. Most of the companies that do not stop production are semi steel tires, and the inventory level of semi steel tire companies is not high. Manufacturers are actively producing. During the Spring Festival holiday, employees of car companies may return to their hometowns, and production may decline, weakening the demand for tire matching. The replacement market demand continues to weaken, overall demand slows down, and the market continues to move slowly in terms of goods. There has been no significant improvement in domestic replacement market demand, with weak domestic demand and overall decent foreign trade. Export orders for semi steel tires remain strong, and there may be concentrated export shipments before the Spring Festival. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw material prices have limited impact on tire prices.
From the perspective of raw materials, the continuous rise in butadiene prices in January has led to expectations of a high decline in February, but some butadiene units have maintenance expectations in March, which provides some support for market prices. From the supply side perspective, Qilu Petrochemical and Zhenhua Petroleum's butadiene rubber units are operating at low loads. However, since the restart and load increase of some butadiene rubber units in late January, the supply will gradually increase. However, under the high volatility of butadiene, it is not ruled out that some enterprises may reduce their load or shut down their expectations due to profit contraction. From the demand side, before the Spring Festival, businesses had weak stocking intentions due to high prices. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually restarted, and demand may increase. Related products, natural rubber, have experienced seasonal contraction in overseas supply, but due to demand constraints, market prices remain high and volatile. In terms of futures, technical guidance is relatively strong. To sum up, although the downturn in demand has dragged on, the cost and supplier policy still have support. It is expected that the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market in February will be high and volatile, to be careful of the possible adjustment after the holiday.
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