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The development and application of hydrogen energy industry have significantly accelerated, and the heat is rapidly rising

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The hydrogen energy industry, known as the "ultimate energy of the 21st century," has seen significant acceleration in its development and application, and its popularity is rapidly rising.

At the Daxing International Hydrogen Demonstration Zone in Beijing, Mr. Yang's hydrogen powered bus is refueling with hydrogen. The Haiper hydrogen refueling station located in the southwest corner of the demonstration area covers an area of over 7000 square meters, with a daily hydrogen refueling capacity of 4.8 tons, which can simultaneously meet the hydrogen demand of 500 to 600 vehicles. According to Master Yang, an 18 ton logistics vehicle can achieve a range of about 400 kilometers by adding over 20 kilograms of hydrogen gas at once.

"2025 will usher in the first turning point of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles." Speaking of the medium and short term development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, Gong Mingming, the brand general manager of Weishi Energy Technology Co., Ltd., stated that under the promotion of national demonstration group policies, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations will reach 50000 units and 1000 seats respectively. In addition, the technological level of core components such as fuel cells and membrane electrodes will improve, Will truly meet the needs of terminal scenarios. In addition, when the price of hydrogen in some regions drops to 25 yuan/kg, combined with external factors such as road rights and carbon reduction, hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles will gradually become economically viable, and a subsidy free business model will also accelerate the formation.

Further growth in market demand

Hydrogen powered commercial vehicles become pioneers

The China Hydrogen Alliance predicts that the output value of China's hydrogen industry will reach 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025, and 5 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2035. As an important component of the hydrogen energy industry and the main application form in the transportation field, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have advantages such as longer range, faster charging speed, and stronger low-temperature performance compared to fuel and lithium battery vehicles, which helps to continuously release market demand.

However, with the accelerated promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, issues such as a single source of hydrogen, high transportation costs, and limited use of green hydrogen have become increasingly prominent. Firstly, the fuel cell stack accounts for the highest proportion of the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, reaching 30%. Among them, the mining output of platinum catalyst used in the reaction is extremely small, about 90 tons a year, which is 5% of the mining output of gold. On average, hydrogen fuel vehicles consume 50 grams of platinum per unit.

In addition, the carbon fiber composite materials used in electrolytic water hydrogen production and hydrogen storage tanks are also an important component of high cost. Green hydrogen production and hydrogen energy storage and transportation technologies also face technical difficulties and high costs. In this regard, Zhang Fan, partner of Deji Advanced Manufacturing and Transportation Industry, believes that the hydrogen energy vehicle industry has an ultra long industrial chain, and even under the support of favorable policies, the overall industry cannot start quickly. Due to technological bottlenecks, high manufacturing costs, and limited hydrogen supporting facilities, the economic shortcomings are particularly prominent. For a long time, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle products were scarce, and there was no large-scale commercial operation.

In recent years, the government, industry, enterprises, and related professional institutions have actively worked to promote the development of China's hydrogen energy industry and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles onto the "fast lane". According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China in 2023 were 5668 and 5805, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 55.3% and 72.0%. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is showing a rapid growth trend.

At the same time, relying on the policy of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters, China has also initially formed five hydrogen energy industry demonstration city clusters in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Hebei, Henan, Shanghai, and Guangdong. These regions are accelerating the demonstration operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and continuously driving the development of the industrial chain.

Taking the progress of Beijing Daxing International Hydrogen Energy Demonstration Zone as an example, in the past year, the first and second phases of the South Zone have been officially put into use, the National Quality Inspection and Testing Center has been listed for construction, key projects such as the State Power Investment Production Base and Meijin Hydrogen Energy Headquarters have started smoothly, the first carbon emission reduction transaction in the hydrogen energy field has landed, and the cumulative promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has exceeded 900, including "China's first hydrogen stock" Yihuatong The entry of nearly a hundred upstream and downstream automotive companies, including Kewell, the first company in hydrogen energy testing, into the area demonstrates the rapid development of the hydrogen fuel vehicle industry.

From the perspective of the value chain, hydrogen energy, especially green hydrogen, currently has strategic value and still needs to seek commercial value. The commercial vehicle field is a good breakthrough point. In this regard, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member and a professor of the School of Vehicle and Transportation of Tsinghua University, said, "We hope to use this as a breakthrough to achieve large-scale development in 2025 on the basis of national urban demonstration clusters and subsidy policies."

It is understood that among various types of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, heavy-duty trucks are the most competitive and promising sub market, and also the fastest landing market in China. With the gradual improvement of the industry, the era of hydrogen energy for commercial vehicles in China has begun and has achieved an international leading position. In terms of automotive companies, currently including SAIC Hongyan, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Jiefang, BAIC Foton, and Yutong Bus, all have layouts in the hydrogen energy field, and related vehicles can be commercially applied to special transportation work scenarios such as ports, cities, power plants, steel mills, and industrial parks.

Gong Mingming added that in terms of range, in the market of 800 to 1000 kilometers or more, hydrogen powered heavy-duty trucks have faster energy replenishment speed than pure electric heavy-duty trucks and are not affected by seasonal environments. They are more suitable for long-distance and heavy-duty transportation, with more obvious performance advantages and larger market space. It is expected that in the next 5 years or so, hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are expected to achieve large-scale operation, and the commercial superiority will significantly explode.

The top-level design is gradually improving

The future of commercialization of passenger cars is promising

As numerous industry chain companies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are rapidly developing, the top-level design of hydrogen related policies in China is gradually improving, promoting further optimization and improvement of the industry chain. In the industry, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been driven by both policy and reality.

As early as November 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Development Plan for the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2035)", which listed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid (including extended range) vehicles as three major directions. In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly released the "Medium - and Long Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which clarified the energy attributes and strategic position of hydrogen energy, and proposed the goal of reaching 50000 hydrogen vehicles by 2025.

Thanks to the gradual improvement of industry and policies, commercial hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have frequently emerged from the market. During the early 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, over 1000 fuel cell vehicles will be demonstrated and put into operation; In June of the same year, FAW Jiefang launched and departed 300 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; In August, SAIC put 410 hydrogen fuel cell dianchi vehicles into operation.

At the same time, various regions have also formulated corresponding promotion plans and subsidy policies to encourage the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation sector. For example, Guangdong Province has set a goal of promoting more than 10000 hydrogen powered vehicles by 2025, and has provided a maximum subsidy of 300000 yuan per hydrogen powered vehicle; Shandong Province has set a goal of promoting more than 20000 hydrogen powered vehicles by 2025, and will provide a maximum subsidy of 200000 yuan per hydrogen powered vehicle.

On January 26th, the Development and Reform Commission of Baoding City issued the "Ten Measures to Support the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry in Baoding City", which clearly supported the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles, established a special fund for the development of the hydrogen energy industry of 200 million yuan, and signed and launched the "National First Hundred level Hydrogen Energy Environmental Protection Project" with Weishi Energy to promote hydrogen energy sanitation vehicles in the city's regions and support the promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

It is widely believed in the industry that the top-level design and technology chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been connected, but running a business model is the foundation for forming market scale and achieving rapid industrial development. From the development trajectory of pure electric vehicles, it can be seen that in order for the new automotive industry to achieve healthy and sustainable growth, it must transition from policy guidance to market driven, especially requiring recognition from the private consumer market. The key to the formation of large-scale hydrogen fuel cell vehicles should be related to the private consumer market, namely the passenger car market.

"As an energy storage method, fuel cells have a very optimistic and promising future under the strong promotion of national policies." According to Ji Xuehong, director of the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center at North China University of Technology, referring to the development trajectory of lithium electric vehicles, it took about 8 years from the beginning to the commercialization stage where penetration rate reached 5%. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are more difficult to promote than pure electric vehicles and need to achieve large-scale applications, Maybe after 2030.

Regarding the timing of large-scale application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, Zhang Fan is more optimistic: "The automotive industry generally takes a 2% ownership as the starting point for commercialization, and with an estimated sales volume of 20 million vehicles in China's passenger car market, it is expected that hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars can achieve the target between 2027 and 2030."


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