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The market trend of n-propanol is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range
In 2023, the domestic market for n-propanol has been fluctuating from its high point at the beginning of the year, with a slight decline. The n-propanol market has adjusted prices narrowly with changes in shipment and demand. Throughout the year, the high price of n-propanol occurred on January 1st, with a reference price of 8416 yuan/ton for n-propanol. The low price of n-propanol occurred on July 24th, with a reference price of 7566 yuan/ton for n-propanol. The maximum price increase during the year was 850 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 10.10%
In terms of production capacity: In 2019, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol was about 260000 tons. From 2020 to 2021, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol increased significantly. In August 2020, Ningbo Juhua added 50000 tons of n-propanol equipment. In March 2021, Luxi Chemical added 80000 tons of n-propanol equipment. In 2021, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol reached about 394000 tons. From 2022 to 2023, the overall production capacity of n-propanol in China has not changed much. With the increase of domestic production capacity, factors such as periodic equipment maintenance or unexpected shutdowns of n-propanol have weakened the supply and demand as well as price impact on the n-propanol market. This is also one of the important supporting factors for the overall range fluctuation of n-propanol market prices in 2023, despite frequent fluctuations.
In terms of supply: Currently, large suppliers of n-propanol in China are relatively stable, mainly including Ningbo Juhua, Luxi Chemical, Nanjing Rongxin, Zibo Nuo'o, Nanjing Nuo'o, as well as Changchun Chemical and Dalian Chemical. Among them, Luxification accounts for 20%, while Nanjing Nuo'o and Zibo Nuo'o together account for 52%.
In terms of demand: In the downstream application market of n-propanol, the demand for n-propanol acetate accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for about 65%. Acetic acid n-propyl ester is mainly used in coatings, printing, and other fields. In recent years, China has attached increasing importance to environmental protection, actively promoted the upgrading of the coating industry, and gradually increased the proportion of optimized environmentally friendly products. In this track, acetic acid n-propanol still has many advantages. Acetic acid n-propanol is not among the VOC restricted products, and it can be mixed with almost all organic solvents. Acetic acid n-propanol has strong solubility in oils and fats, and it can dissolve natural oils and fats well. Under the background of green and environmental protection policies, biomass coating products have development opportunities. Moreover, n-propanol acetate can also be used as a relaxing and quick drying agent for elastic and gravure printing inks, especially for olefin reduction and polyamide film printing.
Under the influence of creating a green ecological environment, there is a stable growth space for demand for n-propanol in the solvent and acetic acid n-propyl ester fields. At the same time, the overall price decline of n-propanol market in the past two years is conducive to solvent substitution competition. In the later stage, with the development of the industrial chain terminal and the gradual expansion of the export market, coupled with the adjustment of solvent usage habits, the long-term development trend of n-propanol demand is good.
In terms of imports: From 2020 to 2021, the import volume of n-propanol in China has been decreasing year by year. On the one hand, the domestic production capacity has increased, and the external dependence of n-propanol has decreased. On the other hand, due to the impact of public health events, the import volume of n-propanol has decreased. In 2022, with the decreasing attention to international public events, the overall import volume of n-propanol has increased. From January to November 2023, the import volume of n-propanol in China was 30000 tons, which should have decreased compared to 2022. In 2023, with the gradual recovery of the domestic market, the overall operation of the n-propanol market is relatively stable, and the dependence on foreign countries is reduced. In 2023, the price fluctuations of the domestic n-propanol market tend to ease, and in an environment of abundant domestic supply, the price range of n-propanol will continue to operate in a reasonable range. It is expected that in 2024, the import volume of n-propanol in China will continue to decline, and the dependence on foreign countries will gradually decrease.
In summary, in 2023, the domestic n-propanol market experienced a slight decline in range fluctuations. In 2024, the market trend of n-propanol will be adjusted and operated under the joint influence of supply and demand. Firstly, in terms of supply, in 2024, the overall supply of n-propanol will continue to maintain a relatively loose supply situation, and the supply side will continue to provide certain stable price support to the n-propanol market. Secondly, in terms of demand, in 2024, with the continued recovery of the market economy, it is expected that the real estate sector will also steadily recover, and the application in the construction industry will improve. The terminal demand for n-propanol will also steadily increase, so the demand side can also bring some boost to the market. In summary, in 2024, the domestic market for n-propanol will tend to fluctuate within a narrow range with a slight upward trend.
In terms of production capacity: In 2019, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol was about 260000 tons. From 2020 to 2021, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol increased significantly. In August 2020, Ningbo Juhua added 50000 tons of n-propanol equipment. In March 2021, Luxi Chemical added 80000 tons of n-propanol equipment. In 2021, the domestic production capacity of n-propanol reached about 394000 tons. From 2022 to 2023, the overall production capacity of n-propanol in China has not changed much. With the increase of domestic production capacity, factors such as periodic equipment maintenance or unexpected shutdowns of n-propanol have weakened the supply and demand as well as price impact on the n-propanol market. This is also one of the important supporting factors for the overall range fluctuation of n-propanol market prices in 2023, despite frequent fluctuations.
In terms of supply: Currently, large suppliers of n-propanol in China are relatively stable, mainly including Ningbo Juhua, Luxi Chemical, Nanjing Rongxin, Zibo Nuo'o, Nanjing Nuo'o, as well as Changchun Chemical and Dalian Chemical. Among them, Luxification accounts for 20%, while Nanjing Nuo'o and Zibo Nuo'o together account for 52%.
In terms of demand: In the downstream application market of n-propanol, the demand for n-propanol acetate accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for about 65%. Acetic acid n-propyl ester is mainly used in coatings, printing, and other fields. In recent years, China has attached increasing importance to environmental protection, actively promoted the upgrading of the coating industry, and gradually increased the proportion of optimized environmentally friendly products. In this track, acetic acid n-propanol still has many advantages. Acetic acid n-propanol is not among the VOC restricted products, and it can be mixed with almost all organic solvents. Acetic acid n-propanol has strong solubility in oils and fats, and it can dissolve natural oils and fats well. Under the background of green and environmental protection policies, biomass coating products have development opportunities. Moreover, n-propanol acetate can also be used as a relaxing and quick drying agent for elastic and gravure printing inks, especially for olefin reduction and polyamide film printing.
Under the influence of creating a green ecological environment, there is a stable growth space for demand for n-propanol in the solvent and acetic acid n-propyl ester fields. At the same time, the overall price decline of n-propanol market in the past two years is conducive to solvent substitution competition. In the later stage, with the development of the industrial chain terminal and the gradual expansion of the export market, coupled with the adjustment of solvent usage habits, the long-term development trend of n-propanol demand is good.
In terms of imports: From 2020 to 2021, the import volume of n-propanol in China has been decreasing year by year. On the one hand, the domestic production capacity has increased, and the external dependence of n-propanol has decreased. On the other hand, due to the impact of public health events, the import volume of n-propanol has decreased. In 2022, with the decreasing attention to international public events, the overall import volume of n-propanol has increased. From January to November 2023, the import volume of n-propanol in China was 30000 tons, which should have decreased compared to 2022. In 2023, with the gradual recovery of the domestic market, the overall operation of the n-propanol market is relatively stable, and the dependence on foreign countries is reduced. In 2023, the price fluctuations of the domestic n-propanol market tend to ease, and in an environment of abundant domestic supply, the price range of n-propanol will continue to operate in a reasonable range. It is expected that in 2024, the import volume of n-propanol in China will continue to decline, and the dependence on foreign countries will gradually decrease.
In summary, in 2023, the domestic n-propanol market experienced a slight decline in range fluctuations. In 2024, the market trend of n-propanol will be adjusted and operated under the joint influence of supply and demand. Firstly, in terms of supply, in 2024, the overall supply of n-propanol will continue to maintain a relatively loose supply situation, and the supply side will continue to provide certain stable price support to the n-propanol market. Secondly, in terms of demand, in 2024, with the continued recovery of the market economy, it is expected that the real estate sector will also steadily recover, and the application in the construction industry will improve. The terminal demand for n-propanol will also steadily increase, so the demand side can also bring some boost to the market. In summary, in 2024, the domestic market for n-propanol will tend to fluctuate within a narrow range with a slight upward trend.
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