Industry News
The amount of ammonia in the commodity is showing a significant recovery state, with limited potential benefits
Although the incremental behavior is a short-term behavior, as the Spring Festival approaches, various enterprises are taking the lead in inventory management. After all, the current supply of goods in the main production area market is at its highest level in recent years, reaching 26700 tons. The market competition is fierce, and the decline in the synthetic ammonia market in the main production area from Saturday to now is mostly around 200-350 yuan/ton. As of now, the mainstream transaction in Shandong region has reached 2650-2880 yuan/ton.
The main production area's commodity ammonia production has reached a new high
According to statistics, the daily level of commodity ammonia production in the main production area is 26700 tons, reaching the highest supply level since the beginning of this year. It is estimated that there has been a strong negative correlation between supply and price since mid to late January, with a correlation of up to 0.97. However, although the significant increase in supply is clearly related to short-term failures of surrounding urea enterprises, even without urea failure factors, the amount of commodity ammonia still shows a clear recovery trend. The increase in supply is mainly considered in Anyang Zhongying, Anhui Quansheng, Shandong Mingshui, Shanxi Tianze, Anhui Shuguang, etc. Of course, since last week, some early maintenance and faulty ammonia companies have successively recovered, which has also played a preparatory role in increasing market supply.
Supply increase, local demand is not awesome
Since January, the demand in the industry has been mostly at a medium to high level before mid to late. However, after mid to late January, the production of acrylonitrile, phosphate fertilizer, and compound fertilizer industries has gradually declined, and even before the Spring Festival, there will still be a significant downward trend in industry production. On the one hand, the acrylonitrile industry has been continuously losing money recently, with losses mostly maintained at around 490 yuan/ton. Therefore, two companies in the Shandong market have seen a significant decrease in their receiving volume and are facing parking; On the other hand, as the end of the year approaches, some companies in the phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer industries are expected to suspend production. Considering the continuous decline in raw material prices in the near future, some companies have no orders or have stopped production. And of course, there is also a temporary parking phenomenon in the nitric acid industry, and there is no expected recovery before the holiday.
Weakening of supply and demand atmosphere, pressure on ammonia market
As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of synthetic ammonia in the market is currently relatively abundant, while some downstream industries are showing a significant trend of reducing production. There is still an increase of around 700 units of commercial ammonia in the southwest region, coupled with the impact of rain and snow weather in some areas of the northern market. The positive news for the synthetic ammonia market is relatively limited. However, considering the continuous decline in prices, the fixed bed industry will hit costs. Therefore, if the fixed bed industry continues to maintain and reduce production, it can play a certain role in supporting the market.
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