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The synthetic ammonia market is showing a trend of recovery and replenishment, and the atmosphere will be bearish
Since last week, the synthetic ammonia market in the main production areas has shown a trend of recovery and replenishment, with an overall replenishment space of 150 yuan/ton as of now. The positive news for the market's rise is mainly due to the recent increase in faulty ammonia enterprises in various regions, such as Anhui, Hebei, Hubei, Henan, and other regions. Although some factories have expected to recover, some have continued to push back, giving confidence to the market that has continued to decline in the early stage. This weekend, new faulty ammonia companies were added to the Shandong market, continuing to drive local market atmosphere. Although the price in the northwest region has dropped significantly to 2150-2200 yuan/ton since last week, the regional gap has significantly widened. However, the impact of snowfall weather has delayed delivery, and the main production area market continues to operate steadily. As of now, the mainstream transaction volume in Shandong region is 3000-3180 yuan/ton.
The market atmosphere has once again become anxious. On the one hand, the Spring Festival is approaching again, and some faulty ammonia companies are gradually recovering their expectations. On the other hand, Southwest gas head ammonia companies are gradually recovering, and supply is once again abundant for development. International ammonia prices have once again declined, and synthetic ammonia products may be squeezed by both domestic and foreign markets, let alone the approaching Spring Festival.
The supply has not been fully restored yet, and the main production area is operating in Tingshi
As of January 22, the commodity ammonia volume in the main production area reached 24000 tons, which is a relatively low level in recent times. The tightening of supply has played a certain buffering role in the decline of local markets. However, the current atmosphere in the north and south markets of the synthetic ammonia market is also slightly different. With the recovery of Anhui's faulty ammonia enterprises, the shipping atmosphere in most parts of East China and Central China has weakened, and the focus is showing a downward trend. However, the northern market is driven by concentrated snowfall in Inner Mongolia, the temporary resumption of external sales in Cangzhou, the addition of faulty ammonia enterprises in Shandong, and the continuous external sales of Shenma in Henan. The overall trading atmosphere is still good, and many factories are boosting the market. Overall, the market in the main production areas is mainly strong, but considering the recovery of Hubei Jinying and the subsequent sale of Anhui's faulty ammonia enterprises, the market is gradually operating with clarity. Moreover, some ammonia enterprises in the southwest region are gradually resuming production, and some are starting to clear inventory. Official shipments are expected to be made in the middle of the week. With the simultaneous recovery of downstream supporting facilities, it is expected that the southwest region will increase by 1000-1200 tons per day.
The decline in international ammonia prices has increased, but there is still an expectation of a decline
According to statistics, the current CFR price in China has reached 370 yuan/ton, equivalent to 2980 yuan/ton. It is understood that the current domestic ammonia delivery price in East China is 3150 yuan/ton. With the further decline in international ammonia prices, import opportunities are gradually increasing. However, due to transportation issues in the Red Sea, the eastern market will continue to be bearish in the future, and the enthusiasm for domestic delivery is not high. There is still room for bearish expectations for the international ammonia delivery price, which may be reduced to around 2650 after conversion. For imported ammonia, the operator's risk is relatively small. Therefore, although there are slight advantages and import expectations in southern ports, the market still maintains a wait-and-see mentality.
Bilateral compression at home and abroad, no reduction in pressure on the ammonia market
Overall, the atmosphere in the synthetic ammonia market is bullish and bearish. As the Spring Festival approaches, although the main production area market has not yet fully entered the inventory stage and short-term local failures have not yet recovered, there is still support for the market. However, with the widening price difference in non main production areas and the gradual recovery of maintenance ammonia enterprises in the southwest region, the advantage of imported ammonia has emerged, and the bullish and bearish atmosphere in the market has emerged. Therefore, the market will continue to rise weakly in the future, with short-term tight supply areas holding up market expectations, but the market may gradually become clearer in the second half of this week.
The market atmosphere has once again become anxious. On the one hand, the Spring Festival is approaching again, and some faulty ammonia companies are gradually recovering their expectations. On the other hand, Southwest gas head ammonia companies are gradually recovering, and supply is once again abundant for development. International ammonia prices have once again declined, and synthetic ammonia products may be squeezed by both domestic and foreign markets, let alone the approaching Spring Festival.
The supply has not been fully restored yet, and the main production area is operating in Tingshi
As of January 22, the commodity ammonia volume in the main production area reached 24000 tons, which is a relatively low level in recent times. The tightening of supply has played a certain buffering role in the decline of local markets. However, the current atmosphere in the north and south markets of the synthetic ammonia market is also slightly different. With the recovery of Anhui's faulty ammonia enterprises, the shipping atmosphere in most parts of East China and Central China has weakened, and the focus is showing a downward trend. However, the northern market is driven by concentrated snowfall in Inner Mongolia, the temporary resumption of external sales in Cangzhou, the addition of faulty ammonia enterprises in Shandong, and the continuous external sales of Shenma in Henan. The overall trading atmosphere is still good, and many factories are boosting the market. Overall, the market in the main production areas is mainly strong, but considering the recovery of Hubei Jinying and the subsequent sale of Anhui's faulty ammonia enterprises, the market is gradually operating with clarity. Moreover, some ammonia enterprises in the southwest region are gradually resuming production, and some are starting to clear inventory. Official shipments are expected to be made in the middle of the week. With the simultaneous recovery of downstream supporting facilities, it is expected that the southwest region will increase by 1000-1200 tons per day.
The decline in international ammonia prices has increased, but there is still an expectation of a decline
According to statistics, the current CFR price in China has reached 370 yuan/ton, equivalent to 2980 yuan/ton. It is understood that the current domestic ammonia delivery price in East China is 3150 yuan/ton. With the further decline in international ammonia prices, import opportunities are gradually increasing. However, due to transportation issues in the Red Sea, the eastern market will continue to be bearish in the future, and the enthusiasm for domestic delivery is not high. There is still room for bearish expectations for the international ammonia delivery price, which may be reduced to around 2650 after conversion. For imported ammonia, the operator's risk is relatively small. Therefore, although there are slight advantages and import expectations in southern ports, the market still maintains a wait-and-see mentality.
Bilateral compression at home and abroad, no reduction in pressure on the ammonia market
Overall, the atmosphere in the synthetic ammonia market is bullish and bearish. As the Spring Festival approaches, although the main production area market has not yet fully entered the inventory stage and short-term local failures have not yet recovered, there is still support for the market. However, with the widening price difference in non main production areas and the gradual recovery of maintenance ammonia enterprises in the southwest region, the advantage of imported ammonia has emerged, and the bullish and bearish atmosphere in the market has emerged. Therefore, the market will continue to rise weakly in the future, with short-term tight supply areas holding up market expectations, but the market may gradually become clearer in the second half of this week.
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