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The market for glyphosate ammonium phosphine is expected to emerge from a downturn with promising prospects
Since November, with the support of cost and demand, the market price of glyphosate has bottomed out and rebounded. According to the monitoring of Baichuan Yingfu, after nearly three months of continuous "floor price" of 60000 yuan (ton price, the same below), the average price of glyphosate has risen to 70000 yuan, an increase of nearly 17%.
Currently, the supply side has a firm attitude towards price support, with some companies offering high prices. The industry expects that with the gradual release of agricultural demand, combined with the promotion and application of mixed formulations and refined glyphosate, the glyphosate market is likely to emerge from its low point and enter a prosperous cycle.
Floor prices hit bottom and rebounded
"With the gradual opening of winter storage and procurement demand in the coming year, glyphosate ammonium has entered the peak sales season. Especially in the recent period, the price has risen quite sharply, and some suppliers have raised the price of 95% glyphosate ammonium powder to 75000 yuan per ton," said a farmer in Henan region, "Due to some traders still having low-priced inventory, the price increase has temporarily stabilized in the past two days. However, production enterprises' firm attitude towards price support is not significant, and our shipping pressure is not significant."
According to a research report by Guohai Securities, ammonium glyphosate can to some extent replace glyphosate. But previously, the price of glyphosate ammonium was 4-5 times that of glyphosate, with high medication costs and limited market demand. In recent years, due to the significant expansion of production on the supply side, the price of glyphosate has significantly declined and is currently at a historical low. Since May 2022, its price has dropped from 265000 yuan to 60000 yuan in September this year, a decrease of 77%.
In the past three months, the market price of glyphosate has remained at 60000 yuan, approaching the cost line. Some companies have incurred losses, and the market is in an unstoppable downward trend. Due to the arrival of the peak season, there is support on the demand side, and the supply and demand are basically oriented well.
According to a research report by Guohai Securities, in terms of inventory, the industry's inventory is 4100 tons, which is relatively small compared to the total production capacity of 113000 tons. Supported by the combined efforts of cost and demand, the glyphosate market has bottomed out and rebounded.
Continuous increase in demand
Wu Junyan, an analyst at Donghai Securities, predicts that the global herbicide market will reach $27.8 billion in 2026, making it the highest proportion and one of the most important pesticide varieties. Therefore, as one of the main herbicide products, glyphosate has a broad market prospect.
"The demand for glyphosate continues to rise." Limin Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Limin Shares), a national designated backbone pesticide manufacturing enterprise, recently stated in a survey conducted by institutional investors that with the gradual promotion of genetically modified crops, the number of weed species resistant to glyphosate products continues to increase, and glyphosate further replaces the market for glyphosate products. The industry generally expects that in the next 3-5 years, The demand for glyphosate will increase from the current 40000 to 50000 tons to around 100000 tons.
Wu Junyan also believes that the promotion and application of mixed formulations and refined glyphosate will further drive the demand for glyphosate.
In terms of mixed formulations, in order to improve the effectiveness of weed control, some formulation companies have attempted to mix glyphosate with other herbicides. According to data from China Pesticide Information Network, since 2015, the number of registered mixed formulations of glyphosate and selective herbicides has increased from 3 in 2015 to 62 in 2021. In terms of quantity, the mixed products of glyphosate and ammonium phosphine are still in the initial stage and have great market development prospects.
In addition, China's policy of reducing pesticide dosage and increasing efficiency is expected to promote the promotion and application of glyphosate (L-type glyphosate). Fine ammonium glyphosate naturally exists in nature, and its herbicidal activity is about twice that of ammonium glyphosate. Therefore, promoting the widespread use of glyphosate will effectively reduce the use of pesticides and environmental risks, which is in line with the current national policy of reducing pesticide dosage and increasing efficiency, as well as the current environmental protection concept. It is an important development direction for the glyphosate industry in the future.
Enterprises are deploying one after another
Due to long-term optimism towards the market of glyphosate, multiple backbone pesticide companies have successively laid out their presence in the refined glyphosate market.
Recently, Li'er Chemical Co., Ltd. stated during a survey with institutional investors that the company is very optimistic about the market space for glyphosate. In the future, with the gradual maturity of production processes, the reduction of production costs, and the completion of market registration layout, the scale of market demand will continue to grow.
Limin Corporation also stated that its 10000 ton/year refined ammonium glyphosate project passed the environmental impact assessment in September this year. The company adopts a combination of gas-phase continuous method and biological continuous catalytic method, which can fully utilize the existing equipment. Currently, project construction and installation are underway, and it is expected that the equipment will be ready for operation by the end of this year.
Currently, the supply side has a firm attitude towards price support, with some companies offering high prices. The industry expects that with the gradual release of agricultural demand, combined with the promotion and application of mixed formulations and refined glyphosate, the glyphosate market is likely to emerge from its low point and enter a prosperous cycle.
Floor prices hit bottom and rebounded
"With the gradual opening of winter storage and procurement demand in the coming year, glyphosate ammonium has entered the peak sales season. Especially in the recent period, the price has risen quite sharply, and some suppliers have raised the price of 95% glyphosate ammonium powder to 75000 yuan per ton," said a farmer in Henan region, "Due to some traders still having low-priced inventory, the price increase has temporarily stabilized in the past two days. However, production enterprises' firm attitude towards price support is not significant, and our shipping pressure is not significant."
According to a research report by Guohai Securities, ammonium glyphosate can to some extent replace glyphosate. But previously, the price of glyphosate ammonium was 4-5 times that of glyphosate, with high medication costs and limited market demand. In recent years, due to the significant expansion of production on the supply side, the price of glyphosate has significantly declined and is currently at a historical low. Since May 2022, its price has dropped from 265000 yuan to 60000 yuan in September this year, a decrease of 77%.
In the past three months, the market price of glyphosate has remained at 60000 yuan, approaching the cost line. Some companies have incurred losses, and the market is in an unstoppable downward trend. Due to the arrival of the peak season, there is support on the demand side, and the supply and demand are basically oriented well.
According to a research report by Guohai Securities, in terms of inventory, the industry's inventory is 4100 tons, which is relatively small compared to the total production capacity of 113000 tons. Supported by the combined efforts of cost and demand, the glyphosate market has bottomed out and rebounded.
Continuous increase in demand
Wu Junyan, an analyst at Donghai Securities, predicts that the global herbicide market will reach $27.8 billion in 2026, making it the highest proportion and one of the most important pesticide varieties. Therefore, as one of the main herbicide products, glyphosate has a broad market prospect.
"The demand for glyphosate continues to rise." Limin Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Limin Shares), a national designated backbone pesticide manufacturing enterprise, recently stated in a survey conducted by institutional investors that with the gradual promotion of genetically modified crops, the number of weed species resistant to glyphosate products continues to increase, and glyphosate further replaces the market for glyphosate products. The industry generally expects that in the next 3-5 years, The demand for glyphosate will increase from the current 40000 to 50000 tons to around 100000 tons.
Wu Junyan also believes that the promotion and application of mixed formulations and refined glyphosate will further drive the demand for glyphosate.
In terms of mixed formulations, in order to improve the effectiveness of weed control, some formulation companies have attempted to mix glyphosate with other herbicides. According to data from China Pesticide Information Network, since 2015, the number of registered mixed formulations of glyphosate and selective herbicides has increased from 3 in 2015 to 62 in 2021. In terms of quantity, the mixed products of glyphosate and ammonium phosphine are still in the initial stage and have great market development prospects.
In addition, China's policy of reducing pesticide dosage and increasing efficiency is expected to promote the promotion and application of glyphosate (L-type glyphosate). Fine ammonium glyphosate naturally exists in nature, and its herbicidal activity is about twice that of ammonium glyphosate. Therefore, promoting the widespread use of glyphosate will effectively reduce the use of pesticides and environmental risks, which is in line with the current national policy of reducing pesticide dosage and increasing efficiency, as well as the current environmental protection concept. It is an important development direction for the glyphosate industry in the future.
Enterprises are deploying one after another
Due to long-term optimism towards the market of glyphosate, multiple backbone pesticide companies have successively laid out their presence in the refined glyphosate market.
Recently, Li'er Chemical Co., Ltd. stated during a survey with institutional investors that the company is very optimistic about the market space for glyphosate. In the future, with the gradual maturity of production processes, the reduction of production costs, and the completion of market registration layout, the scale of market demand will continue to grow.
Limin Corporation also stated that its 10000 ton/year refined ammonium glyphosate project passed the environmental impact assessment in September this year. The company adopts a combination of gas-phase continuous method and biological continuous catalytic method, which can fully utilize the existing equipment. Currently, project construction and installation are underway, and it is expected that the equipment will be ready for operation by the end of this year.
With the support of policies, the agricultural demand market is optimistic, and downstream application areas continue to expand. The prospects for the glyphosate market to emerge from the trough are promising.
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