Industry News
Methanol is likely to maintain an oscillating pattern and wait for fundamental changes
At present, the weak situation of methanol supply and demand is largely caused by seasonality, with no exceeding expectations. In this context, methanol prices are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the future market is waiting for fundamental changes.
At present, due to factors such as winter gas restrictions and environmental inspections, methanol supply has decreased seasonally, while demand has weakened due to the off-season and poor downstream business conditions. Overall, there is no obvious supply-demand contradiction for methanol, and the probability of price fluctuations is high.
High inventory alleviates seasonal supply decline
Entering September, the chemical industry has ushered in the "golden nine silver ten" consumption peak season, with relatively sufficient downstream orders. Not only that, after October, the production and operation of coal to methanol in China has improved, with unit losses reduced from 450 yuan/ton to around 350 yuan/ton, and the operating situation has slightly improved. Under the combined effect of sufficient orders and improved business conditions, the operating load of methanol production enterprises has increased, maintaining a level of over 80% since September, with little overall change.
Entering December, the operating load of methanol plants is likely to decrease, and the domestic methanol supply will decrease, mainly due to the following reasons: firstly, due to the limitation of industrial gas consumption in winter, the Southwest gas head plant will experience a seasonal decline; Secondly, with the arrival of the heating season, environmental inspections will affect the operation of chemical enterprises, especially the production of coke oven gas units in North China; Thirdly, due to the impact of rainy and snowy weather in winter, transportation in northern regions is inconvenient, leading to a structural shortage of methanol supply.
As of December 7th, the domestic methanol port inventory was 621200 tons, an increase of 310900 tons from the same period last year and a year-on-year increase of 100.19%. Among them, the inventory of ports in East China was 439900 tons, an increase of 217100 tons compared to the same period last year, and a year-on-year increase of 97.44%; The inventory of ports in South China was 181300 tons, an increase of 93800 tons from the same period last year and a year-on-year increase of 107.2%. Overall, domestic methanol port inventories are still at a relatively high level. Although the demand from ports is still good, the arrival volume of methanol at ports in December is relatively high, and import sources will be concentrated in the near future. Therefore, the inventory of methanol ports will continue to accumulate.
In terms of inventory, as of the week ending December 8th, the inventory of methanol sample enterprises in mainland China was 449300 tons, an increase from the end of September, but lower than 87400 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 16.28%. Since September, the inventory of methanol enterprises in mainland China has been accumulating, but the pressure of destocking is significantly lower than last year. As the end of the year approaches, the domestic methanol plant is likely to reduce its load, and the inventory of mainland enterprises is also lower than the same period last year. However, the high inventory in ports will offset the supply decline caused by the domestic methanol operating load.
Expected decrease in demand towards the end of the year
At present, the traditional demand for methanol is performing well. As of December 7th, the operating loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and DMF in China were 24.56%, 17.76%, 90.04%, 56.91%, and 59.47%, respectively, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a decrease of 3.92 percentage points, an increase of 13.09 percentage points, an increase of 10.25 percentage points, and an increase of 6.69 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
In terms of formaldehyde, there is currently a trend of expanding losses for formaldehyde units, and downstream demand has entered the off-season. Orders continue to be poor, and the seasonal decline in subsequent construction is the trend. In terms of dimethyl ether, due to the decrease in civilian fuel prices, the profit of dimethyl ether has been compressed, and the operating load has also been reduced. In terms of acetic acid, due to the impact of new downstream production capacity and low enterprise inventory, the supply of acetic acid is tight, and profits have significantly increased. As of the week ending December 7th, the profit of glacial acetic acid was 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton from the previous week. Affected by the increase in profits, the production of acetic acid has increased, but with the recent increase in supply, the shipment of acetic acid has slightly decreased.
In terms of coal to olefins, due to the overall profit and loss of coal to olefins being better than last year, the operating load of coal to olefins this year has remained at 85.4%, an increase of 17.81 percentage points compared to last year. In the short term, there are plans to reduce the load of some coal to olefin units, but the magnitude is limited and has little impact on overall demand.
Based on the above analysis, the current methanol supply and demand show a relatively weak trend. In terms of demand, methanol demand has performed well, but due to seasonal factors and poor operating conditions in some industries, demand will decrease in the later stage. In terms of supply, factors such as industrial gas restrictions have led to a decrease in the operating load of methanol. However, the current contradiction between methanol supply and demand is limited, and the weak situation of supply and demand in the later stage is largely caused by seasonality, without exceeding expectations. In this case, the author believes that methanol is likely to maintain an oscillating pattern and wait for fundamental changes.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
