Industry News
The favorable factors of ammonium nitrate account for a large proportion, and the quotation will be mainly firm
Recently, ammonium has encountered a price reduction controversy, but the magnitude is relatively small. The factory side is mainly strong, with some areas showing slight looseness. It is reported that the new factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei factory is between 3450-3500 yuan (ton price, the same below), which has slightly decreased compared to the previous period. However, the overall quotation of the enterprise is strong, and most of the looseness is in the trader's quotation. It is reported that the low-end factory price of 55% ammonium powder is slightly lower than 3400 yuan, indicating that the trader's quotation has decreased by about 100 yuan compared to before the meeting. Can monoammonium have a chance to turn around like urea when encountering some favorable factors? The author's analysis is as follows.
Firstly, the supply of ammonium is still tight, and there are still pending orders from enterprises. The overall operating rate of ammonium nitrate enterprises has changed, especially in the Sichuan region where some enterprises are experiencing production restrictions or shutdowns due to air pollution inspections. The recovery time needs to wait for government approval, but it may not be too long, and the normal operating rate of Sichuan enterprises is not high. Currently, the overall operating rate of ammonium nitrate is between 40-50%. The pending orders of ammonium nitrate enterprises can generally be executed until the end of December or even before the Spring Festival. Although there may be significant discounts on transaction prices, the overall inventory pressure of the enterprise will not be significant, indicating that the supply side will still be slightly tight.
Secondly, there is still a strong demand for monoammonium, but the wait-and-see atmosphere is temporarily stronger. Recently, the downstream has a low intention to purchase new ammonium nitrate, but it does not mean there is no demand. It is just that the downstream's acceptance of high priced ammonium nitrate is not high. A slight decline in ammonium nitrate in the near future will attract some new orders to a certain extent. The winter storage time is relatively long, and this is a stage of upstream and downstream competition. Hard demand will always be released, but it is not too urgent. In the later stage, with the launch of the composite fertilizer winter storage market, new purchases of ammonium nitrate from downstream will gradually be put on the agenda.
Once again, the price of phosphate ore has increased and there is still a possibility of further speculation. In recent months, the price of phosphate ore has risen, not just during the initial stage of price speculation. Recently, ore prices have indeed risen, with a magnitude of around 50 yuan. The actual transaction price has also increased recently. Currently, the price of 28% grade phosphate ore in Hubei is priced at 1020 yuan, and the actual transaction is also about to exceed 1000 yuan. The price range of raw sulfur fluctuates narrowly, with Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port lowering its price by 40 yuan to 960 yuan this week, Dazhou factory maintaining a stable price of 920 yuan, and Yangtze River Port granular sulfur dropping its price to 900-920 yuan. Although the price of sulfur has declined, the proportion of ore in raw materials is heavier, and the overall trend is that the cost support of raw materials is still strong.
In summary, the favorable factors for ammonium nitrate still account for a large proportion, and the pressure on enterprises is not significant at the moment. There is no risk of a significant downward trend in the price level, but it is also not easy to rise. It is expected that enterprise quotations will continue to remain strong in the short term, and it is understandable for prices to decline in the market.
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