Industry News
The global demand for base oil has slightly declined due to economic slowdown
Display: The compound growth rate of China's base oil production capacity from 2019 to 2023 was 1.51%. From 17.37 million tons in 2019 to 23.65 million tons in 2023. The base oil market was attracted by the increase in deep processing profits from 2015 to 2016, and multiple refineries planned to install base oil units with a production cycle of about 3 years. Therefore, multiple units were concentrated in production from 2018 to 2019, resulting in a production capacity growth rate of 28% in 2019; In 2021, the growth rate of the base oil market slowed down, and with severe overcapacity, there were few new devices installed from 2022 to 2023.
According to data from Longzhong in 2023, the production of second-class paraffin based base oil in China is expected to be 3.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The production of refineries is mainly based on low viscosity resources, with models below 150N accounting for 72%, with 150N accounting for the most, accounting for 34%. Next is 60N, accounting for 30%. The proportion of models with 250N, 350N, 500N and above is 28%. High viscosity resources are scarce, and the demand for high viscosity Class II base oils is mainly supplemented by imported resources.
In 2023, the proportion of naphthenic base oil production was 39.4% for N4006, 53.4% for N4010, and 7.2% for N4016.
According to the data from 2019 to 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of the apparent consumption of domestic base oil is about -0.8%, showing an "inverted V" trend of increase and decrease. It is expected that the apparent consumption of base oil will reach its peak in 2021, and it will be difficult to recover to a volume of over 1000 tons in the coming years.
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