Industry News
It is expected that there will still be a slight upward trend in the short-term natural rubber market
In terms of the market, last Friday's import of US dollar glue saw an increase in market quotations. However, due to the depreciation of the US dollar, it was difficult to close transactions at high prices in the US dollar, and the market's enthusiasm for shipping was poor. Factories were mainly wait-and-see procurement. The market quotation for imported dry rubber in RMB rose, with weak buying in November. Traders mainly switched months, and factories replenished inventory in an appropriate amount, resulting in a moderate restocking sentiment. The spot market price of natural rubber has slightly increased, with factories picking up bulk orders and average inquiries. Market buying is mostly arbitrage oriented, while Vietnamese rubber has shown strong performance and transactions are still acceptable. The spot market for natural rubber latex has an active trading atmosphere, with downstream product enterprises replenishing their inventory in stages. However, the cost support is strong, and the spot supply in the sales area is limited. Traders mainly increase prices for shipment, and negotiate on actual orders.
On the supply side, the price of raw adhesive in Thailand increased by 0.1 Thai baht/kg last Friday, while the price of cup adhesive decreased by 0.05 Thai baht/kg. The prices of Yunnan glue based whole milk and concentrated latex are both stable. The price difference between the two is 0 yuan/ton (0). The prices of Hainan glue based whole milk and concentrated latex are both stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/ton (0). The profit from the delivery of glue to RU01 contract in Yunnan is 506 (-368) yuan/ton, while the profit in Hainan is 186 (-368) yuan/ton.
In terms of demand, it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of half steel tire and all steel tire sample enterprises will continue to show a differentiated trend in the next cycle. Among them, the production scheduling of half steel tire sample enterprises will remain at a high level, while the production capacity utilization rate of all steel tire sample enterprises is still expected to decline. At present, the production of semi steel tire snow tires has basically come to an end, with a small number of tail orders continuing to be produced. The shortage of conventional models of four season tires has not yet been fully alleviated, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of semi steel tire sample enterprises will still maintain a high level. In terms of all steel tires, the overall shipment of enterprises is currently slow, and the inventory of finished products continues to increase. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, some sample enterprises have negative expectations of inventory decline, which will create a certain drag on the capacity utilization rate of all steel tire sample enterprises.
In terms of inventory, according to Longzhong Information, as of November 12, 2023, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 723500 tons, a decrease of 9100 tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1.24% month on month. The inventory in the bonded zone decreased by 0.25 to 115800 tons month on month, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.43% to 607700 tons month on month. The warehousing rate of Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 0.87 percentage points; Reduce the delivery rate by 0.37 percentage points; The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.28 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.67 percentage points.
It is expected that there will still be a slight upward trend in the short-term natural rubber market. The market has fulfilled its concerns about the high volume of raw materials in Thailand's production areas in the early stage, and domestic production areas are about to enter a shutdown period. Factory raw material inventory is low, and insufficient upstream processing profits are still suppressing rubber production. Coupled with the continued trend of inventory depletion in Qingdao, there is still room for rubber prices to rise. The demand side is gradually entering the off-season at the end of the year, and the demand for terminal replacement is weakening. The inventory of finished products in enterprises is accumulating, and there is still a weakening expectation of enterprise construction, suppressing the enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. The upward drive of the spot market is limited.
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