Industry News
The recent production reduction measures have significantly driven up international oil prices
Malek explained that his warning of $150 oil price was due to several factors, including impacted production capacity, energy supercycle, and efforts to further rid the world of fossil fuels.
Recently, driven by OPEC+member countries' production reduction measures, international oil prices have significantly increased. Among them, Saudi Arabia has reduced production by an additional 1 million barrels since July, and the daily average production has decreased to around 9 million barrels. In addition, Russia also introduced temporary export bans on gasoline and diesel last week.
At the same time, global demand for crude oil has also recovered, which, combined with supply constraints, has supported consecutive weeks of higher oil prices. Last week, the oil futures for November delivery closed at $93.27 per barrel, but Malik expects this price to be between $90 and $110 next year, and even higher in 2025.
This is a huge transformation for JPMorgan Chase. At the beginning of the year, the investment bank stated that oil prices were "unlikely" to reach $100 per barrel within the year without major geopolitical events. Even in June of this year, Xiaomo significantly lowered its oil price forecast for this year and the next two years.
Regarding this, Malik said in an interview with the media last week, "Fasten your seat belt, this will be a very unstable supercycle." In addition to OPEC's production reduction, the senior energy analyst also issued a warning about the "lack of new investment" in the oil and gas industry.
Currently, JPMorgan Chase predicts that the global oil supply and demand gap will reach 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025, and this number will increase to 7.1 million barrels per day by 2030 due to the continued differentiation between demand and supply.
Two weeks ago, Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that world demand for oil, natural gas, and coal would all peak before 2030, and that the fossil fuel era had begun to come to an end.
In response, OPEC issued an official statement stating that ignoring fossil fuels or suggesting that they are at the beginning of their end is an extremely dangerous and unrealistic statement.
OPEC believes that such thinking, similar to the IEA, often echoes those who stop investing in new oil and gas projects, and is not based on facts. It does not take into account the continuous technological progress made by the oil and gas industry in reducing emissions.
OPEC+also pointed out that fossil fuels are crucial for energy security and still account for over 80% of the global energy structure, the same as 30 years ago.
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