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The price center of yellow phosphorus may adjust in a narrow range with upward fluctuations

Word：[Big][Middle][Small] 2023/9/21 Viewed：

This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus has risen again, with a range of about 500 yuan/ton. As of September 20th, the market price of yellow phosphorus has temporarily stabilized at 25800-26000 yuan/ton. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market has been driven up this time, mainly due to the National Day holiday and the Hangzhou Asian Games. The overall stock volume of the market has significantly increased, and downstream procurement has been active. The spot supply of yellow phosphorus in the market has tightened, and enterprises are reluctant to sell, which has continuously pushed up prices. At present, the factory quotations of yellow phosphorus enterprises on site are concentrated at 26000-26500 yuan/ton. Today, the net phosphorus factory acceptance new order in the Yunnan yellow phosphorus market has a transaction reference of 25800-26000 yuan/ton, with sporadic high priced orders; The factory acceptance transaction reference for net phosphorus in Guizhou is 25800-26000 yuan/ton; In the Sichuan region, the factory transaction reference is around 25800 yuan/ton, and enterprises in the province supply a small amount of old customer orders. Overall, the yellow phosphorus market has temporarily stabilized and operated in the past two days. The National Day holiday is approaching, and market pre holiday stocking orders continue. Some companies will still make up a small amount next week. Yellow phosphorus companies are still interested in raising prices, but downstream markets may have limited acceptance of high prices. What is the future trend of the yellow phosphorus market due to the stalemate between upstream and downstream operations? Is it 'up' or 'down'? The main influencing factors include the following:

1、 In terms of supply analysis, yellow phosphorus enterprises are currently operating adequately

Since July to August, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has significantly increased. According to incomplete statistics from Longzhong Information, the current operating rate of the yellow phosphorus industry has reached 53.33%, which is relatively stable. From a regional perspective, the weekly average operating rate of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan remains stable at around 66%; The operating rate of enterprises in Guizhou has remained stable at around 28.7%; The operating rate of enterprises in the Sichuan region has remained stable at around 50.8%. The yellow phosphorus market has started steadily in the future, with high enthusiasm for construction. Recently, the company has no plans to reduce production.

2、 In terms of demand analysis, pre holiday stocking is still ongoing

At present, the demand for yellow phosphorus is still mainly based on hard demand, and buyers maintain replenishment on demand, with cautious negotiations for large and long orders. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises in the subsequent market will mainly make sporadic restocking, and it may be difficult to make bulk purchases next week. The main reason is that the price of yellow phosphorus fluctuates frequently, and downstream industry costs are unstable, which is not conducive to the negotiation of large and long orders in the industrial chain.

3、 Possible policy influencing factors

1. Energy consumption dual control policy and environmental supervision. According to industry sources, the Yunnan region will implement dual energy consumption control in September; 2. Policies and pricing mechanisms for the supply of hydropower and thermal power. The supply of thermal power in Guizhou is tight, and some manufacturers are producing at different peak times; Water and electricity supply during dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan; 3. Fluctuation of phosphate rock prices. The price of phosphate rock has rebounded slightly, and whether it can continue to rise in the future still needs further attention.

Overall, the pre holiday stocking is still ongoing, but the subsequent stocking volume is not large. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market price will settle at a high level next week, and there is a risk of decline by the weekend. In the long run, there may be insufficient power supply during the dry season after the holiday, and there is a high probability of electricity price increase. In addition, there is still an expectation of an increase in phosphate rock prices, leading to an increase in cost estimates; Yellow phosphorus enterprises may have limited production and reduced production, leading to a decrease in supply. Due to expiration, yellow phosphorus enterprises are reluctant to sell at high prices, and the focus of yellow phosphorus prices may be mainly fluctuating upward, with narrow adjustments. The estimated price fluctuates between 25500 and 27000 yuan/ton.

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