Industry News
Expected limited amplitude after narrow adjustment of isobutyraldehyde price center of gravity
As of September 21st, the market price of isobutyraldehyde has been continuously adjusted to 8600 yuan per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 500 yuan during the week. Since the beginning of this week, the main factories have been continuously lowering and organizing new orders. However, this price reduction is considered by the industry as an expected and reasonable operation. Although there has been a significant decrease in prices, compared to previous price declines, the trend of isobutyraldehyde prices this time is an inevitable result before the long holiday. Firstly, from the perspective of isobutyraldehyde's own supply and demand, after the price rose to 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, isobutyraldehyde remained at a high point for nearly half a month. The production and sales rhythm of the main factories was stable, and considering that some isobutyraldehyde production enterprises had more parking situations, Especially after the construction of the Yongli Chemical Plant in Tianjin Bohai dropped to a low level this month, it was once again put into a shutdown and maintenance state, which directly affected the increase in isobutyraldehyde loss and the supply situation remained tight. And from the downstream construction situation, it can be seen that neopentyl glycol is significantly better than alcohol esters, and the overall supporting role of demand remains unchanged. Therefore, the factory has always maintained a high position in the early stage.
On the other hand, although the overall production and sales pressure of isobutyraldehyde factories is controllable within the month, it is significant for the downstream of the industry chain to occupy a high price and high profit state for a long time. If we do not consider the impact of special holiday stocking time nodes, the high center of gravity of isobutyraldehyde may continue to maintain until late this month. It is reported that some isobutyraldehyde factories have already started the "promotion" of holiday orders last week due to the approaching National Day holiday, Moreover, other factories opening pre orders earlier can also try to avoid conflicts and mutual impact with large factories accepting orders at reduced prices. It was not until this week that the opening prices of the main factories were continuously lowered and sorted out that the pre-sale action for National Day orders was truly initiated. From the perspective of time nodes, the main factory has chosen to lower prices two weeks before the holiday, mainly considering the tight pre holiday scheduling and delivery time, as well as the impact of long-term settlement. Therefore, the pullback in the price of isobutyraldehyde this week is an expected change after considering the above factors. Downstream factories have also significantly increased their purchasing enthusiasm after the raw material prices have decreased. After the "limited time price reduction promotion" this week, the orders received by each factory have been relatively smooth. After this week, it means that the price of isobutyraldehyde has basically stabilized before the holiday, and next week, factories will mainly arrange orders for shipment.
Forecast after the holiday: The market trend of isobutyraldehyde is expected to fluctuate within a high range after the holiday. Considering that pre-sales of various factories are normal before the holiday, the inventory pressure of each factory in the first week after the holiday is not significant for the time being, and considering that the recovery time of the Tianjin factory's equipment needs to be seen. After the holiday, as downstream construction gradually resumes, the supply and demand of isobutyraldehyde is likely to remain in a tight equilibrium state. Therefore, the risk of downward price fluctuations of isobutyraldehyde after the holiday is controllable, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range of fluctuations between medium and high regions in the short term.
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