Industry News
Unsaturated resin market remains stagnant due to unstable factory prices
1. Upstream raw materials continue to rise strongly, and the cost value of unsaturated resin has significantly increased.
Since September, the upstream raw materials of unsaturated resins have shown a significant upward trend, with upstream styrene and maleic anhydride showing a relatively large increase, while other raw materials showing relatively small increases. As a lower end product of the industrial chain, the price increase of unsaturated resins during the month was 8.51%, although far less than the raw materials, and the price difference with the main raw material styrene has narrowed to around 500 yuan/ton.
Since August, supported by cost side price increases, and influenced by the traditional peak season of "buying up instead of buying down", the capacity utilization rate of the domestic unsaturated resin industry has continued to rise. Starting from late September, the industry's production capacity is expected to gradually rebound, and future supply pressure is gradually increasing.
Since 2023, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic unsaturated resin industry has significantly improved, with an overall level of about 29% in the first half of the year and an average capacity utilization rate of 33% in July; In August, it continued to maintain a level of over 28%. Starting from late August, due to the maintenance of some devices, the utilization rate of unsaturated resin production capacity in China has decreased; Since September, it has risen to around 35%, reaching the highest level of the year. As of September 19th, there are currently no maintenance devices in China, and it is expected that there will be a double holiday in late September and early October. Unsaturated resin is expected to stop during holidays.
Since late August, the utilization rate of unsaturated resin production capacity in China has continued to rise. However, at present, the majority of orders are delivered in the early stages, and there is currently no inventory accumulation. In late September and early October, with the shutdown of enterprise equipment, the utilization rate of unsaturated resin production capacity will decrease, and supply side pressure will continue to decrease.
Since mid July, the unsaturated resin market has been pushing up, but downstream buying demand has not followed up. This week, the market has stabilized and high cost transmission has been hindered. However, the rise in upstream raw materials has led to a significant increase in the cost value of unsaturated resin, and industry profits are particularly average.
In the current round of unsaturated resin market growth, domestic materials have accumulated an increase of nearly 600-1100 yuan/ton. However, due to the constraints of the terminal consumption environment, the downstream order situation of unsaturated resin has not been effectively improved, and the consumption of raw material inventory is slow. The continuous price increase of unsaturated resin has led to a significant squeeze on its production profits, and under the impact of both quantity and profit reduction, the downstream procurement capacity of unsaturated resin continues to weaken; From the perspective of intermediaries, from the beginning of the year to the present, the price of unsaturated resin has first declined and then increased, and this month it has basically rebounded to the highest level within the year. The rapid rise in the market has also brought more profit taking opportunities in the market. Against the backdrop of obvious stagflation in the market, many holding companies have been actively buying, resulting in more stable spot market prices in the near future.
At present, the "Jinjiu" market is approaching as scheduled, and prices continue to rise. Although the terminal consumption environment is poor, the continuous rise is expected, and there are many downstream stocking operations. Overall, on-site shipments are still acceptable.
In mid to late September, with the upcoming Double Festival, market shipments may increase, while domestic unsaturated resin factories are expected to have a decrease in supply and inventory. Considering the strong expectations of upstream raw materials and cost support, the unsaturated resin market prices will mainly consolidate before the National Day holiday; In October, the operation of the unsaturated resin market will continue to be driven by the game of three factors: cost side, supply side, and demand side. The imbalance between supply and demand side may further intensify, and the cost driven impact will significantly increase. It is necessary to focus on the market changes of upstream raw materials and the situation of downstream inventory digestion. It is expected that the market will mainly operate in a narrow range of fluctuations.
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