Industry News
Fundamentally Positive Continuation of Rubber Additives Market Continues to Record High Points
Firstly, the rise in raw materials is the most powerful support for the rapid rise in rubber additives. As of September 15th, the raw material aniline has increased by 4350 yuan/ton compared to the low point in July, and the raw material MIBK has increased by 5500 yuan/ton compared to the low point in July; Looking at the full year trend of 2023, the current prices of raw materials aniline and MIBK are both at their highest points within the year. By comparing the correlation between accelerators, antioxidants, and raw material trends, it can be seen that since the third quarter, the correlation coefficient between accelerators, antioxidants, and raw materials has been close to 1. Therefore, the increase in raw materials in the third quarter has played a strong driving role in rubber additives.
Secondly, the downstream tire industry continues to operate at a high level, supported by domestic demand for rubber additives. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi steel tire sample enterprises in the (20230908 0914) cycle was 79.08%,+0.08% month on month, and+21.18% year on year.; The production capacity utilization rate of all steel tire sample enterprises in China is 65.27%, month on month+1.06%, and year-on-year+17.29%. According to statistics, since the third quarter, tire sample enterprises have maintained a year-on-year increase in production, and there is a good demand for rigid rubber additives.
Thirdly, the inventory of auxiliary enterprises has been consistently low recently, with some supply sources being tight, and various enterprises showing a clear mentality of price competition. Due to the early stage of price increase, downstream companies actively prepared goods and concentrated orders, leading to a rapid decline in inventory of various auxiliary enterprises. As the market continues to rise, downstream and traders have a high enthusiasm for purchasing goods, resulting in a slow accumulation of enterprise inventory and a sustained low level. Coupled with positive market conditions, the market has a strong atmosphere of speculation.
From the perspective of the post market, some devices at the raw material end are scheduled to undergo maintenance in October, and their supply will be tightened or continue to support price increases. The cost support for rubber additives will be further strengthened; And currently entering the peak demand season of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", downstream construction continues to maintain a high level, and the fundamentals continue to be positive. The market is not lacking certain speculation expectations, and it is expected that the rubber additive market will continue to hit new highs.
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