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PVC futures rebounded and drove spot market prices upward

Word:[Big][Middle][Small] 2023/6/6     Viewed:    
       Recently, PVC futures rebounded, driving up the spot market prices, but it is understood that the PVC price increase after the market transactions more dismal, market participants are more wait-and-see attitude, take the enthusiasm is not high, the market still remains flat operation, the supply and demand situation is weak is still the main factor limiting the price rebound. As of June 5, PVC futures rebounded weakly and fell again, and the spot market price was weakly adjusted, with the mainstream reference of calcium carbide type 5 material around 5570-5830 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference of ethylene material 5590-5950 yuan/ton.

  From the supply and demand situation, although some PVC enterprises are still in the parking, load reduction or overhaul state, but the overhaul enterprises further reduced, the start-up rate has rebounded, coupled with the slow consumption of inventory, the overall supply side pressure is still greater. As a result of the poor economy and the downturn in real estate, downstream product enterprises have a low start-up rate and a weak intent to take orders, and they are just in need of replenishment. In addition, international PVC prices continue to fall and India and other countries demand turned weak, exports are also expected to further decline, therefore, the short-term supply and demand situation is still weak.

  From a comprehensive point of view, the technical rebound in the futures driven by PVC prices may follow the rise, but there is no obvious effective support for the time being, and the supply and demand situation remains weak, the post-market PVC market still remains low oscillating operation.

  1, May production increased, year-on-year decrease

  Entering 2023, with some of the new devices put into operation, PVC production capacity to further expand, according to common sense, domestic PVC production will appear to grow, but in recent months, the domestic PVC enterprises have more maintenance, coupled with the poor profitability of PVC enterprises, parking and load reduction of PVC enterprises have increased, limiting PVC production to enhance the space. As of May, PVC production was 1,829,700 tons, an increase of 2.49% YoY and a decrease of 1.33% YoY.

  2, enterprise shutdown, load reduction and overhaul, limiting the increase in the start-up rate Data source: Goldlink into 2023, domestic PVC enterprise profits continue to lose, PVC enterprises to reduce the load to respond, individual enterprises long-term parking, the start-up rate is basically below 80%. As of June 01, the number of domestic PVC producers overhaul further reduced, but there are still some PVC enterprises in the state of parking or load reduction, limiting the overall start-up rate, the start-up rate increased slightly to about 68.62%.

  3. Inventory consumption is slow and still at a high level

  As of June 05, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East China and South China has increased, and the social inventory in East China and South China is around 446,000 tons, an increase of 1.25% from the previous year. The sample warehouse inventory in East China is about 362,000 tons, and the sample warehouse inventory in South China is about 84,000 tons.

  As of June 05, the inventory of domestic PVC sample producers fell this week to about 355,400 tons, down 0.84% from the previous week.

  4、Demand is sluggish and product enterprises are not working high

  As of June 01, the start-up rate of PVC downstream sample enterprises continued to decline, at about 52.46%. In addition, it is understood that large downstream product enterprises started work at about 4-6%, small and medium-sized product enterprises started work at about 1-3%, and some small enterprises temporarily stopped work.

   

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