Expected increase in apparent consumption in MMA market due to improved supply side
2023/11/24
MMA Market Focus:
1.In 2023, the domestic MMA production increased significantly.
2.In 2023, the apparent consumption in the first three quarters increased by 11% year-on-year.
1、Changes and predictions of MMA production trend in 2023
From January to September 2023, the domestic MMA production reached 936700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%. Only Shandong Province and East China accounted for more than half of the output.
From October to November, some factories have planned and temporary maintenance, and it is expected that the MMA production in the fourth quarter will be reduced in some time periods, but the overall level is still acceptable. It is expected that the annual production will reach at least 1.26 million tons or more with a high probability (if the equipment maintenance is calculated as expected and there are no unexpected situations).
2、Limited changes in the import and export of methacrylate in 2023
According to customs statistics, the cumulative import volume of methacrylate in China from January to September 2023 was 7.78 tons, an increase of 1.10% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative export volume of methacrylate from January to September was 10.73 tons, a decrease of 2.57% compared to the same period last year. The level of import and export has not changed much in the first three quarters. With the increase of China's MMA self-sufficiency rate, import dependence will be low, and export growth will become a trend. In some parts of the second and third quarters of 2023, MMA prices will be high, and export advantages will be insufficient. In addition, foreign demand has not met expectations, and export volume has not shown a significant increase. It is expected that the net import volume for the whole year will not change much.
3、MMA apparent consumption growth in 2023
From January to September 2023, the apparent consumption of MMA in China reached over 900000 tons, a year-on-year increase. The significant growth in the third quarter was mainly due to the improvement in supply. Throughout the year, the change in import and export volume difference is limited, while production has significantly increased, therefore it is expected that the apparent consumption will increase.
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