Potassium fertilizer prices are at high volatility or subject to certain restrictions
2023/11/22
From the perspective of imported potassium, the current port inventory is maintained at over 3.3 million tons, and the high inventory has not stopped the enthusiasm for the rise of potassium chloride. The market is supported by many favorable factors such as high concentration of domestic supply, poor spot circulation, scarce supply of goods in the hands of small and medium-sized traders, and the gradual launch of winter storage markets. Market prices continue to rise, and low-end quotations are gradually withdrawing from the market. At present, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium at the port is 2900-2950 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Laos potassium is 2800 yuan/ton, reducing the actual transaction negotiation space. In terms of border trade, there are relatively few spot resources, and traders have a strong mentality, with prices constantly approaching high levels. The market price of Bayuquan Dahong Granules is around 3100-3150 yuan/ton, and some traders are hesitant to sell due to the high initial procurement costs. The current market is mainly dominated by transactions between traders. As mentioned above, small and medium-sized traders have limited supply of goods, coupled with a mentality of buying instead of falling, resulting in an increase in trading volume in the market and a continuous rise in prices.
From the perspective of domestic potassium production, the Qinghai Salt Lake device has a daily output of about 15000 tons. Due to seasonal factors, the manufacturers have been slow to dry, and shipping has been affected to some extent. The insufficient arrival volume in various regions, combined with the increase in official quotations, has provided significant support to the market. The price of 60% crystal continues to rise, with market prices ranging from 2820 to 2850 yuan/ton. Traders have limited supply of goods and a strong reluctance to sell.
From the perspective of the potassium sulfate market, the price of potassium sulfate is constantly increasing, with a range of around 100-150 yuan/ton, supported by the raw material potassium chloride. In terms of processing potassium sulfate, the operating rate of Mannheim's plants has not decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and remains around 68%. The manufacturers have a large number of orders, a good trading atmosphere, and a strong market price mentality. Some enterprises control or temporarily do not accept orders. In terms of resource based potassium sulfate, the Luobupo plant in Xinjiang is operating normally, and the manufacturer currently has no inventory pressure. Due to seasonal factors, the shipping situation is not ideal and there are limited arrivals from various regions. The arrival price of 50% powdered potassium sulfate in Qinghai region is around 3500 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers have expressed plans to adjust prices in the near future, with an estimated price of 3600 yuan/ton.
Overall, taking 62% white potassium as an example, the current market quotation is approaching the 3000 yuan/ton mark. But we should also note that the price of 2950 yuan/ton has been "stuck" for about a week, and the pace of procurement in the downstream market has not changed. The fear of high prices still exists. At the same time, attention should be paid to the impact of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices at high-end prices. Of course, the positive support for the potassium chloride market still exists, and the market has a strong mentality of favoring prices. In the short term, the potassium fertilizer market may continue to move forward, but prices are already at a high level, and the fluctuation space may be limited. In the later stage, attention should be paid to downstream demand follow-up and winter storage policies.
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