Polyethylene trade is quietly shifting around the world
2023/10/27
After increasing at a growth rate of 17.46% in August, China's polyethylene imports continued their upward trend in September, with a month on month increase of 3.05% and a year-on-year increase of 3.15%. The import volume was 1.2531 million tons, with a total of 2.4691 million tons in the past two months. In terms of quantity by variety, the import volume of HDPE was 470400 tons, an increase of 3.64% month on month, and the import volume of LDPE was 297500 tons; The month on month increase was 12.47%, with LLDPE imports of 485200 tons, a decrease of 2.50% month on month. Therefore, the import supply of LDPE varieties has a significant impact on the market.
From the perspective of importing countries, the top three importing countries in September were the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Among them, the United States increased by 37.22% month on month, with an import volume of 259500 tons, ranking first. From a variety perspective, Iran LDPE, the United States LDPE, and HDPE have a significant impact on the market. The import of LDPE from Iran increased by 62.26% month on month, while the import of HDPE from the United States increased by 80.57% month on month; LDPE rose 46.19%.
From the perspective of market circulation resources in North China, there has been an increase in LDPE for Iran's melt index 2, while for the United States, the increase is in coating materials and heavy packaging, with a large amount of heavy packaging. This is mainly due to the expected increase in greenhouse film orders in September and October in North China, coupled with low foreign bidding prices in the early stage, there is a certain amount of arbitrage space, and merchants have more early orders. From the market circulation of brands on October 25th, it can be seen that there are more heavy packaging brands such as 2233C and 7922, with prices ranging from 8700 to 8800 yuan/ton. At the same time, for downstream factories, they are more recognized for the resources of Formosa Plastics in the United States. Compared with domestic prices, domestic LDPE has no advantage in price.
In the later stage, due to some delays in the August shipping schedule, there are also more resources arriving at the port in mid to late October. In September and October, the delivery prices for external orders were relatively high. From the perspective of import costs, the arbitrage space was narrowed, and merchants' willingness to accept orders was weak. There is an expectation that the import volume will decrease in the future. The expected import volume for October is 1.19 million tons, and the import volume for November is around 1.15 million tons. In terms of price, due to the impact of imported low-priced LDPE, there is still room for short-term decline in domestic LDPE prices. In early November, the LDPE prices in Daqing, North China are expected to be between 8800 and 8950.
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