In the long run, demand highlights that the price of monoammonium may continue to rise
2023/10/26
The urea market is not ideal, which to some extent also restricts the procurement of ammonium mononitrate. However, autumn and winter are the main venues for phosphate fertilizer, but the winter demand is stretched, and sometimes the market is difficult to control. Recently, there has been a steady increase in the price of ammonium nitrate, but it is currently only limited to enterprises in Hubei and other regions. Some enterprises have raised their factory price of 55% powdered ammonium to 3120-3150 yuan (ton price, the same below), and there have been few new transactions in the short term. Since the National Day holiday, the new order transactions of enterprises have indeed been limited, and the price has not significantly increased, only slightly upward. So, what is the specific market situation of ammonium nitrate? The author's analysis is as follows.
Firstly, the supply pressure is currently not significant. The overall operating rate of ammonium monoammonium enterprises is not high, generally less than 50%. Some large factories are still limiting production, mainly due to device renovation, conversion to other fertilizers or insufficient raw materials, and appropriate adjustment of industrial structure. In some areas, small factories are undergoing maintenance and are expected to resume production near the end of the month. The quantity of orders received by ammonium nitrate enterprises in the early stage is still acceptable, so there are still orders waiting to be issued. Some enterprises control the acceptance of orders until mid November, and wait for the situation to become clear before accepting new orders. Some enterprises have received orders for one or even two months, and they have now closed the orders, indicating that the inventory pressure of ammonium nitrate enterprises is not high in the short term.
Secondly, the demand for hard goods in the later stage is relatively large. Recently, ammonium nitrate enterprises have been controlling their orders, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have little intention of purchasing. Winter demand is relatively long, and some enterprises are not eager to purchase ammonium nitrate in the short term. However, in the long run, the demand for ammonium nitrate is relatively high. However, due to the upcoming phosphate compound fertilizer conference, industry insiders have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and there are currently not many new purchases. In the later stage, except for the Northeast region, there will be winter storage demand in East China, South China, Central China, and other places, After the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises in various regions rebounds, the intention to purchase monoammonium will gradually increase.
Once again, the support for raw material costs is still acceptable. Although sulfur prices have recently declined, the current price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River Port has dropped to below 1000 yuan, and the prices at Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Plant have decreased to 1050 yuan and 970 yuan respectively. However, the overall decline is not too significant, and there are still opportunities for recovery before and after the phosphorus compound fertilizer meeting. After the price of sulfuric acid in some regions has decreased, the overall impact is not too significant. The raw material for ammonium phosphate is still mainly focused on phosphate ore. It has been reported that phosphate ore has been on the rise recently. Although the actual price remains at the previous stage, the industry's quotation may rise, and some regions may experience a tight supply situation.
In summary, in the short term, the price of monoammonium may not rise significantly, but the market is not bad either. Recently, the price of monoammonium has stabilized and slightly increased. In the long run, after the demand highlights, the price of monoammonium may continue to rise.
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