Cost driven, resulting in a continued rebound in synthetic rubber
2023/10/16
On the cost side, there is sufficient supply and stable demand for butadiene, and prices fluctuate with costs. As of October 12th, construction has started at 66.87% (+1.25%), with Shanghai Petrochemical stopping for 50 days on September 11th for 120000 tons, Yangzi BASF stopping for 10-26 September for 130000 tons, Sichuan Petrochemical stopping for two months on September 15th for 150000 tons, and Liaoning Baolai restarting for 120000 tons on September 25th. Overall, construction has remained stable. As of October 11th, the port inventory was 34100 tons (+02100 tons), and the port inventory remained relatively high.
On the supply side, some devices have restarted and supply has rebounded. Yihua Rubber and Plastic plans to upgrade to third line operation. Shandong Weite will shut down 50000 tons for maintenance from September 19th to 25th, Jinzhou Petrochemical will shut down 30000 tons for maintenance from September 4th for 14 days, Yangzi Petrochemical will delay the restart of 100000 tons until mid October, Sichuan Petrochemical will conduct a major overhaul of 150000 tons from September 15th to November 15th, and Maoming Petrochemical will have a major overhaul plan for 100000 tons in December. As of October 12th, the operating rate of butadiene rubber was 72.65% (+4.52%).
On the demand side, tire production remained at a high level, but the intensity of subsequent orders weakened. As of October 12th, the operating rate of all steel tires was 63.9% (+14.35%), and after the holiday, the operating rate returned to the pre holiday level; The operating rate of semi steel tire is 72.79% (+3.18%), and the operating rate has returned to the pre holiday level, maintaining a high level of operation.
On the inventory side, on October 12th, the social inventory was 12.21 thousand tons (-0.359 thousand tons), with a narrow decline in inventory, but higher than the same period last year. The market has abundant spot supply. Profit, after tax profit of butadiene rubber increased to 539.82 yuan/ton.
According to market logic, the supply of synthetic rubber is expected to rebound, and demand may fluctuate downward, weakening the supply and demand side. However, the strengthening of crude oil prices has a driving force on the cost side and the continued strength of natural rubber, leading to a continued rebound in synthetic rubber.
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