It is expected that the overall trend of polyolefins in the fourth quarter will be initially suppressed and then increased
2023/10/12
Industrial inventory cycle replenishment approaching
From January to August 2023, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 2.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to January to July. This is the first expansion since the inventory was removed in April 2022; Industrial enterprise inventory increased by 0.8% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from January to July; The operating revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to January July; The total profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared to January July. From a data perspective, industrial enterprises have entered the replenishment stage of inventory, shifting from a passive price increase in destocking to an active price fluctuation in the accumulation stage.
From January to August, the profit situation of the main industries is as follows: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 33.0%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.9%, automotive manufacturing industry increased by 2.4%, oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 10.8%, textile industry decreased by 15.0%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 20.6%, coal mining and washing industry decreased by 26.3%, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry decreased by 51.1%, petroleum The coal and other fuel processing industry decreased by 68.9%.
The upstream and downstream of polyolefins are heading towards the same destination, with the arrival of restocking
The total profit of the rubber and plastic products industry from January to August 2023 increased by 15% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to January to July; Operating revenue decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to January July. The inventory of finished products increased by 7.3% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.3 percentage points compared to January July; Inventory decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to January July. The profit growth rate of the rubber and plastic products industry is still improving well. After bottoming out in January February, the year-on-year growth rate from January to April turned positive for the first time, and then gradually expanded month on month. It has maintained a positive growth rate for four consecutive months. However, in terms of operating revenue, although it maintains negative growth rate, it narrows month by month and the marginal improvement is obvious. The inventory cycle is in the active replenishment stage.
The total profit of the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry from January to August 2023 decreased by 51.1% year-on-year, and has been experiencing negative growth for 10 consecutive months, with a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to January to July; The operating revenue decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, which is 1.2 percentage points narrower than the decrease from January to July; The inventory of finished products increased by 16.6% year-on-year, 4 percentage points narrower than from January to July; Inventory decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to January July. The inventory cycle trend of the rubber and plastic manufacturing industry is gradually consistent, and although it lags behind for several months, it still enters the active replenishment stage.
In the downstream industry, the total operating revenue of the automotive industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year from January to August, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to January to July. However, the inventory of finished products increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to January to July, and it is still in the active inventory removal stage. The cycle of home appliance manufacturing and automobile manufacturing is the same, and the profit of home appliance manufacturing still maintains a high growth rate, while the profit of automobile manufacturing slightly increases year-on-year.
Polyolefin raw materials oscillate during active replenishment
In August, the decline in profit growth rate of industrial enterprises continued to narrow, and the growth rate of finished product inventory rebounded. Currently, enterprises are turning to the stage of actively replenishing inventory. However, overall external demand is still weak, and the recovery of the domestic real estate market faces significant uncertainty. Confidence in private enterprise investment needs to be boosted, which may limit the space for industrial enterprise profits to rebound. In September, the price of polyolefins reached a new high in three and a half consecutive months of increase and continued to decline, which was compounded by the high and sharp drop in international crude oil prices, prompting polyolefin prices to actively follow and explore a new bottom. In terms of inventory cycle, during the active replenishment stage, the price performance is more volatile, and it is expected that the overall trend in the fourth quarter will be initially suppressed and then increased.
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