China's import proportion of mixed rubber from Thailand continues to decrease
2023/10/11
Due to the impact of drought and high temperatures in the Thai region during the year, the delivery was delayed by 1-2 months, resulting in a lower than expected amount of new rubber. At the same time, due to a decrease in orders, the profits of processing plants were reversed, and the enthusiasm for shipment was not high. As of August, rainfall in Thailand's production areas still caused disturbances to the rubber harvesting work, with a slight increase in production. The increase in raw materials in the northeast is higher than that in the south, and the aging of rubber trees in the south is worsening, resulting in a relatively low output of glue. Some rubber factories have shown signs of reducing production and are not actively purchasing raw materials due to the continuation of processing losses. The rainy weather in mid month continued, and the purchase price of raw materials rose less than expected. Domestic market buying was low, maintaining a state of inverted profits. The production and sales enthusiasm of various rubber factories was generally suppressed. At the end of the month, as the seasonal replenishment demand for concentrated milk rebounded, some processing plants seized glue to maintain normal production demand. The price of glue rose strongly, and the support of cup glue prices on the cost side was still insufficient to revive the production profits of processing plants. The production and sales enthusiasm of processing plants did not fluctuate much compared to the previous period.
2、 Export situation in Thailand
In August 2023, Thailand's natural rubber exports to the world reached 329200 tons, a month on month ratio of+2.50% and a year-on-year ratio of -23.84%; The cumulative global export volume is 3.055 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of -8.29%. In August 2023, Thailand's natural rubber exports to China reached 163900 tons, with a month on month ratio of -1.51% and a year-on-year ratio of 29.84%; The cumulative export volume to China is 1.8976 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13.13%.
3、 Comparison between export volume trends and natural rubber prices
In August, Thailand exported 8700 tons of Chinese mixed rubber, a decrease of 4.81% month on month. In August, China's import of standard adhesive and mixed goods from Thailand remained relatively low, and the total inventory and warehousing rate in Qingdao was not high. From the monitored data, it can be seen that while the production capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises remains high, the decrease in inventory stimulates the upward trend of Thai mixed spot prices.
4、 Short term export volume forecast
It is expected that there is a high possibility of a slight decrease in Thailand's global export volume in September 2023 compared to August, with a slight decrease in imported mixed rubber. The main reason is that there was irregular precipitation in Thailand's production areas in September, and the supply of new rubber was lower than the same period in previous years. Under the high exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, customs clearance profits were compressed, and Chinese importers were not proactive in restocking. The proportion of mixed rubber imports from China from Thailand also continued to decrease.
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