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The polyether industry continues to develop and prices remain relatively low
2023/9/13
Just looking at the topic, it seems that everyone doesn't understand what I want to express. Before starting today's explanation, let's first take a look at a set of data. As of the end of August 2023, the total domestic production capacity of polyether is over 7.7 million tons/year, and the capacity expansion is constantly increasing. As the main and largest raw material for producing polyether, the total production capacity of epoxy propane is over 6 million tons/year. In recent years, the integrated industrial chain device has been continuously improved, The capacity of propylene oxide has increased rapidly, and the cost pressure of polyether has also been alleviated to some extent as the capacity gap between propylene oxide and polyether continues to narrow. However, in recent years, the domestic economy as a whole has been general. Due to the impact of the macro environment, the polyether industry has many cracks to survive. The domestic capacity is relatively large, and overcapacity has become one of the serious problems. Is polyether always shrouded in the "storm"?
We first need to know what factors affect the survival of polyether sandwiches. Of course, there are many, but to put it simply, it is still a demand issue. In recent years, due to the impact of natural disasters and public health events, the domestic economic environment has been severely traumatized, and it can be said that most industries are in a state of decline. Polyether is no exception, and demand is also sluggish and difficult to recover, in a relatively low stage. Although the overall environment is gradually improving in 2023, The domestic economy is constantly recovering, but the impact is not instantaneous.
Difficulty in balancing supply and demand
Starting from July this year, the upstream equipment problem of a polyether factory has led to a significant reduction in supply, while demand has significantly improved. The increase in new polyether orders is significant, and although the demand quickly weakens, the operating load continues to increase in the delivery of a large number of orders. However, some brands are still in short supply, and the delivery cycle for scheduled shipments is longer. Although the demand persistence is short, the overall downstream pickup volume is still acceptable, and this situation continued until early September, During this period, most of the polyether supply was still in a tight state. In early September, polyether once again welcomed the demand for replenishment, and polyether orders were still actively being delivered. However, the delivery time was relatively short, and the demand was weak. It was difficult to significantly improve the follow-up of new orders in the short term, and the supply-demand relationship still showed an oversupply pattern. Currently, downstream factories are consuming raw materials, and the purchasing situation is not active yet. In the short term, the demand for polyether is unlikely to significantly improve, But after all, it is in the traditional peak season month. As the National Day holiday approaches, polyether may once again experience a market of just in need replenishment before the end of September. Overall, prices may not significantly strengthen, but the decline is also limited, and demand may not be too bad. However, production and demand are still unbalanced, and it is difficult for the end market demand to recover to a good state. However, production capacity is constantly expanding, and the supply-demand relationship is still one of the important factors affecting market trends. Currently, solving the supply-demand situation is still a slow process.
Capacity release is a double-edged sword
Planned new production capacity for the second half of 2023:
(1) Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to install a new missile launcher in October; New soft foam and POP devices planned for December
(2) Changhua Chemical plans to add 180000 tons of POP units by the end of September
(3) Wanhua Chemical plans to add 850000 tons of polyether units in November; Expansion of 280000 tons of hard foam equipment
The domestic production capacity of polyether is over 7.7 million tons. From the newly added production capacity above, it can be seen that more than 1 million tons of polyether production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year. In order to better meet and adapt to the needs brought by the constantly developing society, the growth rate of production capacity in recent years has been relatively fast, showing a gradual increase trend every year. However, based on the current situation, the overcapacity of polyether production is relatively serious, and in fact, the downstream demand is still relatively large, It's not that these raw materials cannot be consumed, but the purchasing power of consumers is far from keeping up with the growth rate of production capacity. In the end, demand is still poor. In recent years, various uncertain factors and the sudden impact of the epidemic have led to the overall domestic economy becoming increasingly sluggish, causing demand in various industries to be affected to varying degrees. With the joint efforts of people, the impact event has basically come to an end, and domestic demand is constantly recovering, But people seem to have become accustomed to this kind of life. Currently, people's lives have basically returned to normal, but their purchasing power for commodities and durable goods is still less than expected, and their consumption of these products is still cautious, making overcapacity particularly evident. Although polyether is currently in the traditional peak season and the volume of first-time purchases may improve compared to the off-season, it is mostly phased and the demand is strong or difficult to sustain. Moreover, after the golden nine silver ten years, polyether still has some new production capacity. As demand gradually weakens, downstream purchasing power gradually decreases, and prices will naturally not remain high. Fortunately, in the second half of the year, production capacity is mostly integrated into the industry chain, and the overall impact is not significant for the time being, But the increasingly advancing polyether has also led to increasing competitive pressure. It is expected that the price of soft foam polyether will hover between 9000 to 11300 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.
The production capacity of polyether is constantly increasing, and new production capacity will be put into operation next year and even the following year. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the consumption of polyether in the downstream of China is also increasing year by year, and the apparent consumption is showing an increasing trend. The continuous increase in polyether production capacity indicates that the consumption of polyether is also constantly increasing. With the increasing development of society, current technological improvement, innovation, and capacity expansion are inevitable, which also helps to improve people's consumption level, The progress of social life cannot be separated from the efforts of every citizen, nor can it be separated from the continuous improvement of every company and product. From the perspective of new production capacity in the second half of the year, although there is still a significant increase in production capacity in Shandong region, most of the new polyether production capacity will be concentrated in the East China region next year, the following year, and even the following year. The market share in the East China region is also constantly increasing, and competition between regions will become more intense. At present, the increase in production capacity will inevitably lead to oversupply and relatively slow consumption of raw materials. However, in the long run, in today's continuous development, the increase in production capacity is progress, driving us all the way towards good development.
Widely used in daily life
Having talked so much about it above, some friends may not yet know where polyethers are used. Why is polyether used in daily life? Polyether is an important chemical raw material with a wide range of applications, mainly used in the downstream fields of soft furniture, automobiles, runways, waterproofing and insulation, refrigerators, and freezers. Currently, the largest downstream application proportion of soft foam polyether is in soft furniture, the largest downstream application proportion of high rebound polyether is in automobiles, the largest downstream application proportion of elastomer polyether is in waterproof coatings, and the largest downstream application proportion of hard foam polyether is in refrigerators, Each brand has its main downstream fields. In fact, polyether, as an emerging industry, has a wide range of downstream fields. The above introduced are the main and important application fields, as well as many industries such as adhesives, sealants, shoe materials, sports equipment, toys, clothing, medicine, etc., which are downstream application fields of polyether. With the continuous progress and development of society and the continuous improvement of consumer demand, The downstream industry has great potential for development and may steadily grow. The application of polyether in various fields will also become increasingly widespread. The continuous expansion of downstream fields will also bring better and broader prospects to the polyether market.
The development trend continues to move forward
You can see that in 2023, the price of polyether will still remain relatively low. Although demand has not continued to be strong, with the continuous recovery of domestic demand and the continuous improvement of development level, the demand for polyether has significantly improved compared to last year. In the future, the application range of polyether may continue to expand, and development and competition will also be more intense. The polyether industry as a whole may continue to develop well.
From the perspective of sales channels, currently polyether sales adopt two main models: factory direct sales and trader distribution. However, as people's demand for downstream areas continues to increase, the sales personnel and sales regions of raw polyether may be expanded to better meet people's needs. Moreover, with the continuous development of society, online sales channels may become an emerging sales method, utilizing the convenience of the network to better and faster It is more convenient for customers to purchase the products they need, while also reducing some of the cost pressure of polyethers and better serving customers.
From a pricing perspective, polyether adopts a pricing model that is linked to the price of epoxy propane. As the main upstream raw material of polyether is epoxy propane, normal fluctuations in the raw material epoxy propane will affect the price trend of polyether. In recent years, as the integrated chemical plant of the polyether industry chain is growing, cost pressure is relatively reduced, and many advantageous factories are continuously lowering product prices, which has intensified industry competition, At the same time, it has also led to a continuous increase in demand. In the future, polyether may continue to adhere to the trend of good quality and affordable prices, allowing more customers to purchase good products.
Then, from the perspective of technology and market share, with the continuous development of the polyether industry in recent years, the polyether production equipment has been relatively improved. Later, attention has been paid to the improvement of catalysts, innovation in the technical field, and optimization of production quality. With the continuous expansion of downstream fields, the improvement and enhancement of catalysts can enable the application of polyethers in more fields to meet people's needs and the continuous development of the polyether industry, The industry competition may become more severe, but at the same time, it will also increase the market share of products and increase the market share of polyether manufacturers. In the future, it will be in a benign competition mode, promoting the development of the industry or market.
We first need to know what factors affect the survival of polyether sandwiches. Of course, there are many, but to put it simply, it is still a demand issue. In recent years, due to the impact of natural disasters and public health events, the domestic economic environment has been severely traumatized, and it can be said that most industries are in a state of decline. Polyether is no exception, and demand is also sluggish and difficult to recover, in a relatively low stage. Although the overall environment is gradually improving in 2023, The domestic economy is constantly recovering, but the impact is not instantaneous.
Difficulty in balancing supply and demand
Starting from July this year, the upstream equipment problem of a polyether factory has led to a significant reduction in supply, while demand has significantly improved. The increase in new polyether orders is significant, and although the demand quickly weakens, the operating load continues to increase in the delivery of a large number of orders. However, some brands are still in short supply, and the delivery cycle for scheduled shipments is longer. Although the demand persistence is short, the overall downstream pickup volume is still acceptable, and this situation continued until early September, During this period, most of the polyether supply was still in a tight state. In early September, polyether once again welcomed the demand for replenishment, and polyether orders were still actively being delivered. However, the delivery time was relatively short, and the demand was weak. It was difficult to significantly improve the follow-up of new orders in the short term, and the supply-demand relationship still showed an oversupply pattern. Currently, downstream factories are consuming raw materials, and the purchasing situation is not active yet. In the short term, the demand for polyether is unlikely to significantly improve, But after all, it is in the traditional peak season month. As the National Day holiday approaches, polyether may once again experience a market of just in need replenishment before the end of September. Overall, prices may not significantly strengthen, but the decline is also limited, and demand may not be too bad. However, production and demand are still unbalanced, and it is difficult for the end market demand to recover to a good state. However, production capacity is constantly expanding, and the supply-demand relationship is still one of the important factors affecting market trends. Currently, solving the supply-demand situation is still a slow process.
Capacity release is a double-edged sword
Planned new production capacity for the second half of 2023:
(1) Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to install a new missile launcher in October; New soft foam and POP devices planned for December
(2) Changhua Chemical plans to add 180000 tons of POP units by the end of September
(3) Wanhua Chemical plans to add 850000 tons of polyether units in November; Expansion of 280000 tons of hard foam equipment
The domestic production capacity of polyether is over 7.7 million tons. From the newly added production capacity above, it can be seen that more than 1 million tons of polyether production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year. In order to better meet and adapt to the needs brought by the constantly developing society, the growth rate of production capacity in recent years has been relatively fast, showing a gradual increase trend every year. However, based on the current situation, the overcapacity of polyether production is relatively serious, and in fact, the downstream demand is still relatively large, It's not that these raw materials cannot be consumed, but the purchasing power of consumers is far from keeping up with the growth rate of production capacity. In the end, demand is still poor. In recent years, various uncertain factors and the sudden impact of the epidemic have led to the overall domestic economy becoming increasingly sluggish, causing demand in various industries to be affected to varying degrees. With the joint efforts of people, the impact event has basically come to an end, and domestic demand is constantly recovering, But people seem to have become accustomed to this kind of life. Currently, people's lives have basically returned to normal, but their purchasing power for commodities and durable goods is still less than expected, and their consumption of these products is still cautious, making overcapacity particularly evident. Although polyether is currently in the traditional peak season and the volume of first-time purchases may improve compared to the off-season, it is mostly phased and the demand is strong or difficult to sustain. Moreover, after the golden nine silver ten years, polyether still has some new production capacity. As demand gradually weakens, downstream purchasing power gradually decreases, and prices will naturally not remain high. Fortunately, in the second half of the year, production capacity is mostly integrated into the industry chain, and the overall impact is not significant for the time being, But the increasingly advancing polyether has also led to increasing competitive pressure. It is expected that the price of soft foam polyether will hover between 9000 to 11300 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.
The production capacity of polyether is constantly increasing, and new production capacity will be put into operation next year and even the following year. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the consumption of polyether in the downstream of China is also increasing year by year, and the apparent consumption is showing an increasing trend. The continuous increase in polyether production capacity indicates that the consumption of polyether is also constantly increasing. With the increasing development of society, current technological improvement, innovation, and capacity expansion are inevitable, which also helps to improve people's consumption level, The progress of social life cannot be separated from the efforts of every citizen, nor can it be separated from the continuous improvement of every company and product. From the perspective of new production capacity in the second half of the year, although there is still a significant increase in production capacity in Shandong region, most of the new polyether production capacity will be concentrated in the East China region next year, the following year, and even the following year. The market share in the East China region is also constantly increasing, and competition between regions will become more intense. At present, the increase in production capacity will inevitably lead to oversupply and relatively slow consumption of raw materials. However, in the long run, in today's continuous development, the increase in production capacity is progress, driving us all the way towards good development.
Widely used in daily life
Having talked so much about it above, some friends may not yet know where polyethers are used. Why is polyether used in daily life? Polyether is an important chemical raw material with a wide range of applications, mainly used in the downstream fields of soft furniture, automobiles, runways, waterproofing and insulation, refrigerators, and freezers. Currently, the largest downstream application proportion of soft foam polyether is in soft furniture, the largest downstream application proportion of high rebound polyether is in automobiles, the largest downstream application proportion of elastomer polyether is in waterproof coatings, and the largest downstream application proportion of hard foam polyether is in refrigerators, Each brand has its main downstream fields. In fact, polyether, as an emerging industry, has a wide range of downstream fields. The above introduced are the main and important application fields, as well as many industries such as adhesives, sealants, shoe materials, sports equipment, toys, clothing, medicine, etc., which are downstream application fields of polyether. With the continuous progress and development of society and the continuous improvement of consumer demand, The downstream industry has great potential for development and may steadily grow. The application of polyether in various fields will also become increasingly widespread. The continuous expansion of downstream fields will also bring better and broader prospects to the polyether market.
The development trend continues to move forward
You can see that in 2023, the price of polyether will still remain relatively low. Although demand has not continued to be strong, with the continuous recovery of domestic demand and the continuous improvement of development level, the demand for polyether has significantly improved compared to last year. In the future, the application range of polyether may continue to expand, and development and competition will also be more intense. The polyether industry as a whole may continue to develop well.
From the perspective of sales channels, currently polyether sales adopt two main models: factory direct sales and trader distribution. However, as people's demand for downstream areas continues to increase, the sales personnel and sales regions of raw polyether may be expanded to better meet people's needs. Moreover, with the continuous development of society, online sales channels may become an emerging sales method, utilizing the convenience of the network to better and faster It is more convenient for customers to purchase the products they need, while also reducing some of the cost pressure of polyethers and better serving customers.
From a pricing perspective, polyether adopts a pricing model that is linked to the price of epoxy propane. As the main upstream raw material of polyether is epoxy propane, normal fluctuations in the raw material epoxy propane will affect the price trend of polyether. In recent years, as the integrated chemical plant of the polyether industry chain is growing, cost pressure is relatively reduced, and many advantageous factories are continuously lowering product prices, which has intensified industry competition, At the same time, it has also led to a continuous increase in demand. In the future, polyether may continue to adhere to the trend of good quality and affordable prices, allowing more customers to purchase good products.
Then, from the perspective of technology and market share, with the continuous development of the polyether industry in recent years, the polyether production equipment has been relatively improved. Later, attention has been paid to the improvement of catalysts, innovation in the technical field, and optimization of production quality. With the continuous expansion of downstream fields, the improvement and enhancement of catalysts can enable the application of polyethers in more fields to meet people's needs and the continuous development of the polyether industry, The industry competition may become more severe, but at the same time, it will also increase the market share of products and increase the market share of polyether manufacturers. In the future, it will be in a benign competition mode, promoting the development of the industry or market.
At this stage, there is still too much work to be done for polyether. The supply exceeds the demand, the profit is meager, and the pressure of the industry still exists. We will face the storm together. In the future, with the continuous progress of technology, the industry will continue to expand, and the development prospect will become better and better. We will enjoy the sunshine together.
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