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The price of silicon material continues to rise, and the price of the photovoltaic industry chain is changing again?
2023/9/12
The price of silicon materials continues to rise. According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the highest price of N-type silicon material last week has risen to 98 yuan/kg, and the price of dense material has also exceeded the 85 yuan/kg mark.
In the increasingly competitive industrial ecosystem, reducing costs through technology is the most effective way to enhance competitiveness in all aspects of the industrial chain, "the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy told reporters.
Silicon material prices continue to rise
It is understood that since July, the price of silicon materials has maintained an upward trend.
Recently, silicon material inventory has been at a historical low, and downstream construction has been full, leading to a rebound in silicon material prices at the bottom, "the person in charge of silicon material leader GCL Technology told reporters.
In the first half of this year, the price of silicon materials continued to decline, even falling below the cost line of some small factories, some enterprises ceased production, and market supply decreased. Against this backdrop, the prices of products in the entire photovoltaic industry chain decreased, the profits of power stations were repaired, and the installation scale grew rapidly, driving the downstream demand for silicon materials to increase. Silicon material prices have recently shown a recovery growth, "said Qu Fang, an investment consultant at Wanlian Securities, in an interview with reporters, In the short term, there is still a trend of continued increase in silicon material prices.
However, in the long run, silicon material production capacity has been severely surplus, and price increases lack strong support. From the price trend of the entire industry chain, price decline is the long-term logic of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the photovoltaic industry. This puts forward requirements for relevant enterprises to reduce costs. "Qu Fang further stated.
Based on the financial report data and industry information of relevant enterprises, the current cost price of silicon materials is around 50 yuan per kilogram. "From the information disclosed by some enterprises at present, there is still significant room for cost reduction," Qu Fang said.
Thanks to the ramp up of granular silicon production capacity and the continuous optimization and improvement of production processes, the company's various bases continue to update cost data. "The relevant person in charge of GCL Technology stated that in July this year, the production cost of the Leshan GCL granular silicon project was about 35.68 yuan/kg.
As the competition in the photovoltaic industry gradually enters a deeper stage, the downstream demand standards for raw materials are also constantly improving, driving technological innovation together, "said the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy.
Regarding the future trend of silicon materials, Qu Fang believes that as N-type batteries gradually replace P-type batteries, the price gap between N-type silicon materials and P-type silicon materials will gradually widen.
At present, there are relatively few domestic silicon material manufacturers that can supply N-type requirements, so price differentiation will lead to severe profit differentiation, and low quality silicon material production capacity has great business risks. "The relevant person in charge of GCL Technology judged that in the future, with the release of new production capacity, there is still some room for decline in low-end silicon material prices, and high-end silicon material support is relatively strong. In the future, silicon material prices will fluctuate at a low level.
Competition in the battery sector may further intensify
Against the backdrop of continuously rising silicon prices, the price of photovoltaic cells fell last week.
With the continuous release of battery production capacity, the homogenization of TOPCon and PERC battery technology has intensified competition, and the price reduction is due to market reasons, "said the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy.
From the analysis of battery prices, the market capacity is gradually releasing in the second half of the year, and both traditional battery production enterprises and new entrants choose N-type batteries as their first choice. Therefore, there will be an increase in production capacity and inventory of batteries in the short term, "said Qu Fang. However, considering that the fourth quarter of each year will be the peak season of the photovoltaic industry, in the short term, the downstream demand side of batteries is expected to continue to grow, and battery prices will gradually stabilize.
But in the long run, the competition in the battery sector will be the focus of competition in the photovoltaic industry in recent years, and products with lower costs and higher conversion efficiency will have more market competitiveness, "Qu Fang said.
From the perspective of the development law of the photovoltaic industry, in order to promote the continuous reduction of photovoltaic power consumption costs, the price decline of products in various links of the industry chain is a long-term trend. "The relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy stated that the price decline is mainly driven by two aspects: capacity competition and technology cost reduction. For enterprises, promoting scientific and technological innovation and maintaining the progressiveness of products are important means to enhance their competitiveness.
In Qu Fang's view, technological innovation is the core driving force behind the continuous decline in photovoltaic installation costs.
According to the recently released report "2022 Renewable Energy Power Generation Costs" by IRENA, the weighted average levelized power generation cost (LCOE) of global utility level photovoltaic power plants decreased by 89% from 2010 to 2022, from $0.445/kWh to $0.049/kWh.
Unlike the continued upward trend in silicon material prices, battery prices did not follow the trend, but instead bucked the trend and fell.
In the increasingly competitive industrial ecosystem, reducing costs through technology is the most effective way to enhance competitiveness in all aspects of the industrial chain, "the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy told reporters.
Silicon material prices continue to rise
It is understood that since July, the price of silicon materials has maintained an upward trend.
Recently, silicon material inventory has been at a historical low, and downstream construction has been full, leading to a rebound in silicon material prices at the bottom, "the person in charge of silicon material leader GCL Technology told reporters.
In the first half of this year, the price of silicon materials continued to decline, even falling below the cost line of some small factories, some enterprises ceased production, and market supply decreased. Against this backdrop, the prices of products in the entire photovoltaic industry chain decreased, the profits of power stations were repaired, and the installation scale grew rapidly, driving the downstream demand for silicon materials to increase. Silicon material prices have recently shown a recovery growth, "said Qu Fang, an investment consultant at Wanlian Securities, in an interview with reporters, In the short term, there is still a trend of continued increase in silicon material prices.
However, in the long run, silicon material production capacity has been severely surplus, and price increases lack strong support. From the price trend of the entire industry chain, price decline is the long-term logic of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the photovoltaic industry. This puts forward requirements for relevant enterprises to reduce costs. "Qu Fang further stated.
Based on the financial report data and industry information of relevant enterprises, the current cost price of silicon materials is around 50 yuan per kilogram. "From the information disclosed by some enterprises at present, there is still significant room for cost reduction," Qu Fang said.
Thanks to the ramp up of granular silicon production capacity and the continuous optimization and improvement of production processes, the company's various bases continue to update cost data. "The relevant person in charge of GCL Technology stated that in July this year, the production cost of the Leshan GCL granular silicon project was about 35.68 yuan/kg.
As the competition in the photovoltaic industry gradually enters a deeper stage, the downstream demand standards for raw materials are also constantly improving, driving technological innovation together, "said the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy.
Regarding the future trend of silicon materials, Qu Fang believes that as N-type batteries gradually replace P-type batteries, the price gap between N-type silicon materials and P-type silicon materials will gradually widen.
At present, there are relatively few domestic silicon material manufacturers that can supply N-type requirements, so price differentiation will lead to severe profit differentiation, and low quality silicon material production capacity has great business risks. "The relevant person in charge of GCL Technology judged that in the future, with the release of new production capacity, there is still some room for decline in low-end silicon material prices, and high-end silicon material support is relatively strong. In the future, silicon material prices will fluctuate at a low level.
Competition in the battery sector may further intensify
Against the backdrop of continuously rising silicon prices, the price of photovoltaic cells fell last week.
With the continuous release of battery production capacity, the homogenization of TOPCon and PERC battery technology has intensified competition, and the price reduction is due to market reasons, "said the relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy.
From the analysis of battery prices, the market capacity is gradually releasing in the second half of the year, and both traditional battery production enterprises and new entrants choose N-type batteries as their first choice. Therefore, there will be an increase in production capacity and inventory of batteries in the short term, "said Qu Fang. However, considering that the fourth quarter of each year will be the peak season of the photovoltaic industry, in the short term, the downstream demand side of batteries is expected to continue to grow, and battery prices will gradually stabilize.
But in the long run, the competition in the battery sector will be the focus of competition in the photovoltaic industry in recent years, and products with lower costs and higher conversion efficiency will have more market competitiveness, "Qu Fang said.
From the perspective of the development law of the photovoltaic industry, in order to promote the continuous reduction of photovoltaic power consumption costs, the price decline of products in various links of the industry chain is a long-term trend. "The relevant person in charge of Longji Green Energy stated that the price decline is mainly driven by two aspects: capacity competition and technology cost reduction. For enterprises, promoting scientific and technological innovation and maintaining the progressiveness of products are important means to enhance their competitiveness.
In Qu Fang's view, technological innovation is the core driving force behind the continuous decline in photovoltaic installation costs.
According to the recently released report "2022 Renewable Energy Power Generation Costs" by IRENA, the weighted average levelized power generation cost (LCOE) of global utility level photovoltaic power plants decreased by 89% from 2010 to 2022, from $0.445/kWh to $0.049/kWh.
It can be foreseen that in the long run, with the further development of technology, the cost of silicon materials will continue to decrease, the conversion efficiency of batteries will continue to improve, and the cost of photovoltaic energy will also further decrease. The development speed of the photovoltaic industry will further accelerate, "Qu Fang said.
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