The autumn performance of diammonium phosphate shows a stable balance between supply and demand, with a focus on consolidation
2023/9/11
This week, the price of diammonium phosphate has remained stable and fluctuated slightly. After the news of the suspension of urea exports, the market's arrival volume has significantly increased compared to the previous period. Some fire transportation platforms have experienced difficulties in unloading, and the sinking speed of goods has accelerated. Early orders have been fulfilled, and the holders of goods have been more active in spot shipments compared to the previous period. Terminals have been affected by the increase in news and retail prices, and their enthusiasm for taking goods has weakened recently. They mainly purchase according to demand, and the supply and demand performance is relatively balanced, The transaction price remained stable, and some high-end non mainstream prices disappeared. At present, 64% of Shandong's mainstream outbound prices are 3900-3950 yuan/ton, while 57% of Shandong's outbound prices are around 3400-3500 yuan/ton. Yunnan's 64% latest bid from North China is 3700 yuan/ton, and the company still focuses on stabilizing prices and ensuring supply. However, due to tight market supply and low inventory levels, the autumn market for diammonium phosphate has been trading at a high and stable level recently.
As of now, the capacity utilization rate of the diammonium phosphate industry is 65.38%, an increase of 2.55 percentage points compared to last week and a year-on-year increase of 26.74 percentage points; Recently, the utilization rate of diammonium phosphate production capacity has continued to be high, mainly due to sufficient waiting time for enterprises. A few advance orders have reached the beginning of October, and some export orders still need to be fulfilled. The supply of goods is tight, and most enterprises produce at full capacity to ensure supply. The short-term expected output remains high.
On the demand side, it is reported that the export quota for ammonium phosphate in the fourth quarter has been clarified, and exports will continue to be supported; There is still a shortage of demand in the domestic market in autumn, and it is about to enter the peak period of terminal procurement. Currently, the supply of goods in the autumn market is tightening, but the stable price and supply guarantee of diammonium chloride enterprises are continuously being implemented. It is expected to enter a supply-demand balance state in the later autumn.
In terms of mentality, the limited export of urea has affected the market's attitude towards wait-and-see. In recent days, the prices of urea and potassium fertilizers have narrowed, and the mentality of ammonium phosphate manufacturers may change. It is reported that ammonium phosphate has experienced a localized narrow decline, and the specific situation needs to be observed.
In summary, from the perspective of supply and demand, the autumn performance of diammonium phosphate is expected to be balanced between supply and demand, and the autumn trend should be mainly stable and organized. However, the change in market mentality has become the most important influencing factor for the recent trend of diammonium phosphate, and it is necessary to focus on the price fluctuations in the nitrogen and potassium market and the situation of urea exports.
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