Acetonitrile prices may remain below the cost line for a long time
2023/9/7
Previously, during the period of July to August, Zhejiang Petrochemical also had 2-3 significant bidding price increases, but after the price rose to a high level, it was not stable and showed a rapid decline. From the perspective of the underlying factors behind this round of price increase, the improvement in supply and demand is the main driving force, followed by cost support. Therefore, it is expected that the price of acetonitrile will continue to maintain a relatively strong trend in the future.
Fundamentally speaking, after entering September, the supply of acetonitrile products has shown a decline, especially in the overall operating rate of by-product method enterprises, which has further decreased from 77% in August to around 75% at present. Among them, the operating rate of Sierbang has continued to decrease to 70%, and both Korur and Anqing Petrochemical have decreased to 70-80% of their load operation. In addition, Shanghai SECCO maintains half the load, while Fushun Petrochemical, Daqing Refining and Chemical, and Tianchen Qixiang are all in a shutdown state. Liaoning Jinfa will also start shutdown and maintenance in mid September, and the overall startup rate of by-product production enterprises will reach around 70%.
The start of production for synthetic method enterprises remains at a relatively low level of less than 20%, due to further increased cost pressure. After entering September, the price of the main raw material acetic acid has further increased. Currently, the delivery price in the Shandong market has reached 4000 yuan/ton. Based on the price of another raw material liquid ammonia of 3350 yuan/ton, the theoretical production cost of synthetic acetonitrile is estimated to exceed 10000 yuan/ton. Long term losses have led to low production enthusiasm in synthetic acetonitrile factories, with most of the units in a shutdown state and mainly focused on digesting inventory. On the other hand, the recent increase in raw material costs is also an important factor driving the rapid rise in the price of acetonitrile.
In addition, although there has been no significant increase in overall demand for acetonitrile, there are still some positive expectations for downstream demand in various fields from September to October. Even though terminal consumption is still not as good as previous years' performance, it is expected to improve compared to June to August. Moreover, after initial inventory digestion, factories in fields such as pesticides will also have a demand to rebuild warehouses and restock.
However, there is still limited room for the price of acetonitrile to continue to rise in the future. On the one hand, terminal demand is still weak, and the pace of follow-up is slow; On the other hand, in the context of overcapacity, the game between cost and supply and demand will continue to exist, and the price of acetonitrile may also operate below the cost line for a long time.
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