The price increase in the butadiene rubber market is expanding, and the atmosphere is becoming cautious
2023/9/4
Since the listing of synthetic rubber futures on July 28th, as of September 1st, synthetic rubber 2401 has closed at 13295 yuan/ton, an increase of 1205 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. After the listing of synthetic rubber futures, a unilateral upward trend was formed, with a cumulative increase of around 2500 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber BR9000 has increased from 10550 yuan/ton on July 28 to around 12900 yuan/ton at the close of September 1, with a cumulative increase of about 2350 yuan/ton. The price has broken the volatile situation for a while, setting the highest daily and monthly increase in recent years. The significant increase in prices is mainly due to two reasons. On the one hand, the overall delivery volume is small due to the characteristics of the butadiene rubber industry, which amplifies the supply-demand contradiction in the butadiene rubber market. On the other hand, the boost of phased costs provides confidence and motivation for market prices to star up.
The theoretical profits of the main downstream industries of butadiene can still support the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market at cost
From the perspective of the four major downstream industries of butadiene in August, except for the ABS industry, which had some losses, the other three downstream industries continued to be profitable. Among them, the theoretical monthly profit of butadiene rubber from June to August was between 700 to 800 yuan/ton. Although the profit level is not completely unified, it still stimulates the overall enthusiasm of downstream butadiene enterprises to start production to a certain extent, leading to an increase in butadiene consumption. From the perspective of profitability in major downstream industries, it provides support for the butadiene market price. The market has upward expectations for the price of butadiene in the short cycle, supporting a bullish atmosphere in the butadiene rubber market.
The overall quantity of deliverable products for butadiene rubber futures is relatively low
Based on the limitations of deliverable brand names in the butadiene rubber market, currently only BR9000 produced by some companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec, as well as Chuanhua Synthetic Materials, can be used as delivery products. From the perspective of the proportion of overall production, currently only around 50-70% of monthly production in the market can be used for futures prices, with an average monthly deliverable quantity of around 60000 tons. Considering that in the traditional trading mode of the above enterprises, over 70% of the production is used for spot contract delivery, roughly estimated, the monthly circulation of goods available for delivery in the market is only around 18000 tons. Therefore, the maintenance of specific factories can have a comprehensive impact on the futures market. Since late August, Qilu Petrochemical (600002) has undergone maintenance, and the market's spot circulation has significantly tightened. Therefore, as the maintenance of Sichuan Petrochemical and Jinzhou Petrochemical approaches, market concerns about tight supply of goods have been released, triggering the first wave of limit up in synthetic rubber futures since then.
The "glue" echoes the rising market prices of related products
The rise in the price of butadiene rubber not only drove up the prices of related products such as natural rubber, styrene butadiene, and SBS, but also reversed the rapid increase in the market price of raw material butadiene, with natural rubber showing the most significant upward trend. Recently, the overall natural rubber market has shown a strong operating trend. On September 1st, Shanghai Rubber's main contract 2401 continued its strong overnight rise, and the market price was once closed to the limit up board, creating an active trading atmosphere. The spot price of 20 # monitored on September 1st was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5% compared to early August. The natural rubber analyst team still lacks confidence in the sustainability of the natural rubber market's rise, and the overall attitude is wait-and-see.
With the expansion of the price increase in the butadiene rubber market, the market atmosphere has become increasingly cautious. In the short term, there is a lack of clear positive drivers for the fundamentals of butadiene rubber. The rise in futures prices still needs to be anchored in the profit transmission of the industrial chain for the spot market. Based on the current market buying sentiment towards high prices, the downstream transmission process of industrial chain profits may receive negative feedback from demand, which to some extent restricts the process of catching up with spot prices.
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