Significant fluctuations in MMA market prices since the second quarter
2023/9/1
From the perspective of new devices, a total of three new devices were put into operation in the first half of the year, with a total production capacity of 220000 tons. Among them, in the first quarter, Jihua (Jieyang) had a 50000 ton/year MMA device, and CNOOC Fudao (Hainan) had a 70000 ton/year MMA device. The significant production capacity caused the MMA market to hover at a low level in the first quarter. In the second quarter, Liaoning Jinfa's 100000 ton/year MMA device was put into operation, but some enterprises shut down and reduced their load, resulting in a phased tightening of supply. In June alone, 5 sets of MMA maintenance devices involved a production capacity of 600000 tons/year, leading to an increase in market prices.
From the perspective of operating rate, the average operating rate of the industry in the second quarter was lower than that in the first quarter. From the trend throughout the year, the operating rate in the first half of 2023 was significantly lower than the same period in 2022. Since July, the industry's operating rate has shown an upward trend, especially in August, when the operating rate exceeded the same period last year, which has also led to an increase in production.
According to statistical data, the domestic MMA production in the first half of 2023 was 602600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%. The production in the first quarter was 304000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%. The production in the second quarter was less than 300000 tons, and the domestic factory maintenance was concentrated in the second quarter, resulting in a decrease in output.
After entering the third quarter, MMA production increased slightly, with both July and August showing an increase compared to the same period last year. Especially in August, the monthly production exceeded 110000 tons, and it is expected that the production in September is conservatively expected to remain above 100000 tons.
In August, due to the delayed arrival of some domestic MMA shipments at the port, the restart of the East China factory was delayed. At the beginning of the month, prices in the Shandong and East China markets slightly increased, while the performance in the South China region was weak. Later, as some domestic trade ships arrived at the port, the factory resumed operation, and prices relaxed. In the middle and late stages, factories were supported by costs and prices rebounded slightly. The price fluctuation range within the month is 300 yuan/ton, with prices in the East China market at the beginning of the month at 11550 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 11850 yuan/ton.
In September, Liaoning Jinfa had planned maintenance, but Shandong Hongxu operated at low load due to the reduction of upstream device production; Some factories are also expected to undergo maintenance in October, and overall, the production for the entire month of September may be at a medium to high level. However, the sustained high temperature in the third quarter coincides with the off-season of industry consumption, and the current situation of weak demand may have a significant improvement. The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" may have a positive performance, but in the macro environment of increasing economic downward pressure, downstream markets are difficult to be optimistic about the MMA pull. From the perspective of upstream acetone, multiple phenol ketone units of Hengli Petrochemical, Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin, and Longjiang Chemical are planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, making it difficult to effectively drive the MMA market in terms of cost. Especially within the year, there will be MMA production capacity release, but it is not ruled out that production will be delayed, and there will still be significant resistance to higher MMA market prices.
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