44
Continuously Expanding the Price Difference between Toluene and Asia, Boosting Domestic Trade Prices through Exports
2023/8/30
In August, with the rise of crude oil prices, gasoline prices in the United States have further increased, driving up the prices of component products. Correspondingly, the price of toluene in the US market has increased, which has further widened the price gap between toluene and the United States. As shown in the following figure, from the comparison of FOB prices in the US Gulf and FOB prices in South Korea, the price difference between the two has expanded from the range of $200 to $250 per barrel to $350 to $400 per ton. The toluene arbitrage spread from Asia to the United States has once again reached over $200 per ton, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of Asian American arbitrage activities.
The increase in arbitrage space has also prompted more toluene to flow from Asia to the United States, and the shortage of toluene consumption in Southeast Asia and other regions has also played a significant stimulating role in China's toluene exports. Since July, the domestic toluene export volume has significantly increased month on month, but the overall level has not increased significantly compared to the first half of the year, and it is far lower than the same period last year.
However, with the further expansion of Asian American arbitrage space in August, the export volume of toluene continued to increase compared to the expected month on month. With the increase in export negotiations, the pressure generated by the increase in domestic supply has been greatly released. There was no significant accumulation of toluene in August, and domestic supply is still in a tight state.
Due to the end of the centralized maintenance period of the device and the decrease in the operating rate of domestic disproportionation devices, as well as the imposition of consumption tax on mixed aromatics, more production enterprises have further separated the mixed aromatics, thereby increasing the supply of toluene. The pressure on domestic trade supply of toluene was originally expected to increase significantly in August, but the continuous expansion of the price difference between the United States and Asia has led to more active export negotiations. The significant increase in toluene exports has offset the pressure on domestic supply, allowing prices to continue to be supported during the month.
From the perspective of the price trend of toluene, the fluctuation and climb of crude oil in early August formed a strong driving force. However, with the relatively concentrated arrival of toluene at East China ports and the price already at a high level, the lack of enthusiasm for buying to follow up has led to a slight drop in prices. However, due to factors such as the large arbitrage price difference of methylbenzene in Asia and the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, the export profits of toluene are considerable, and negotiations are becoming more active. In August and early September, the loading of toluene exports is relatively concentrated. Although there was a slight accumulation of inventory at ports during the month, the available supply of spot goods is still tight, which has driven the market price to rise again strongly.
From the past pattern, the demand for gasoline blending in North America is expected to weaken in September, and the Asian American arbitrage interest margin is expected to narrow. However, there are already some orders for toluene exports in September, and the Asian American arbitrage interest margin is currently high, which will take some time to transition back. At the same time, before the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the demand for blending is expected to increase. Therefore, overall, the domestic supply and demand structure of toluene is still relatively strong before October.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.