High olefin C5 rose in the first ten days and fell back in the second ten days. Market expectations after that
2023/8/23
According to monitoring data, as of August 21, the average price of high olefin C5 naphtha tickets in the northwest region was 7698 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.02% compared to the average price of 7193 yuan/ton in the same period in July. Since August, the price has reached a high of 7860 yuan/ton, and the decline has accelerated in the middle of the year.
In terms of related products, crude oil has risen to a high level, with varying degrees of increase in both gasoline and raw materials. The rise in high olefin C5 is more pronounced. In addition to the positive performance of crude oil, how is the performance of other aspects of the high olefin C5 market?
According to the output monitoring of some high olefin C5 manufacturers in northwest China, since the second quarter of 2023, Northwest Refinery has held MTO devices for maintenance. From July to August, Shenhua Yulin, Yanneng Chemical, middling coal Yulin, etc. had maintenance. On August 7, middling coal Yulin temporarily stopped and restarted, and by the middle of August, the maintenance of Yanneng Chemical ended. Overall, the relatively low level of supply support was evident in mid to early August, and supply support gradually weakened after mid August.
From the perspective of downstream demand, based on the average monthly shipment progress, the shipment situation of Northwest Refinery in August decreased compared to July. From the phased situation in August, it can be seen that due to factors such as gasoline outsourcing orders in early August, there is a good demand for high olefin C5 spot in Shandong region, and shipments from Northwest Refinery are smooth. In the middle of the year, news of a tightening of gasoline supply due to refinery maintenance in addition to the main external procurement also boosted the market, and there is still support for high olefin C5 demand. After the middle of the year, the delivery of external procurement orders has ended, gasoline demand has returned to mediocrity, and the Northwest Refinery is experiencing a shortage of shipments, which has lowered the monthly average of shipment progress.
In late August, new export quotas for domestic refined oil products were issued or implemented, which may bring some positive news to the gasoline market. High olefin C5 may rise from a low level, and the expected price range fluctuates between 7450 to 7800 yuan/ton.
In September, from a macro market perspective, international oil prices may show a trend of rising before falling, with economic and fundamental factors playing a game against each other. It is expected that the mainstream operating range of WTI will be $75-85 per barrel, while as of August 21, the operating range of WTI will be between $79.38- $84.40 per barrel. At present, the overall level of crude oil has not changed much.
In the high olefin C5 market, with the completion of maintenance in Yulin, Northwest Shenhua, the overall supply will return to a relatively high level. In mid to early September, there is currently no significant positive support for high olefin C5. If there are no external orders for the main business, the market may fluctuate slightly. After mid September, downstream markets will enter and stock up one after another, and the market stock will exceed expectations. By around 5 days before the 11th holiday, stock up is approaching the end, and the market is weakening again, with an expected price range of 7500-7900 yuan/ton.
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