Lithium carbonate futures have a profound impact on the industry and are optimistic about the new energy market
2023/8/22
On August 17th, with the support of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, China Merchants Securities, China Merchants Futures, and True Lithium Research jointly held the "Dual Carbon" Lithium Carbonate Industry Green Development Forum. Starting from China's new energy industry and focusing on the lithium carbonate futures launched by Guangzhou Futures, relevant personnel from listed companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Rongbai Technology, as well as multiple industry experts, have proposed their views on how to contribute China's strength to the global dual carbon system and carbon border regulation mechanism (CABM), and jointly explore more possibilities for financial empowerment and efficient coordination between industry supply and demand.
Prospects for lithium carbonate futures are promising
Hu Tao, Chief Digital Officer and Assistant President of China Merchants Securities, stated in his speech that as an important pole of the "dual carbon" strategy, China's new energy industry has achieved leapfrog development in the past few years. Lithium battery, photovoltaic and other industries have formed a complete industrial cluster and ecosystem, and many Chinese brands have emerged. China has also become the world's largest producer and exporter of lithium carbonate. Lithium carbonate futures were officially listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in July, receiving widespread market attention and promising prospects.
Zhang Jingjing, Chief Executive of China Merchants Securities Macro, mentioned in his keynote speech on "Opportunities and Challenges for China under Global Supply Chain Reinventing" that with strong export data of China's "new three types" such as electric passenger cars, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells, China's role in the global market has undergone changes.
From the composition of China's export value added, the overall scale of domestic export value added has been increasing year by year, with direct final product exports accounting for the highest proportion of domestic value added, approximately 55% -65%. However, from a trend perspective, this proportion has been decreasing year by year. The proportion of added value for direct intermediate goods exports and indirect intermediate goods (processed and then exported to third countries) is about 20% -30% and 14% -17%, respectively. Although disturbed by Sino US trade frictions and the COVID-19, the proportion of the latter two shows an overall upward trend, reaching 42.7% in 2021.
Zhang Jingjing believes that this indicates that firstly, our position in the global value chain is gradually increasing, and our contribution to global total exports is becoming higher and higher; Secondly, compared to final product exports, China's trend of participating in global trade division by providing intermediate goods is becoming increasingly evident.
Lithium carbonate futures have a profound impact on the supply chain and industry
Specifically, regarding the new energy industry, Mo Ke, founder of Zhenli Research Institute, stated that he firmly believes in the Chinese new energy market. In 2023, China's energy storage market will experience a major explosion, with supply exceeding demand in the lithium carbonate market, and prices will continue to decline. "He believes that in order to digest the excessive supply, Chinese lithium battery companies need to go out, but at the same time, overseas development is more restricted.
Zhao Jun, co-president of Ningbo Rongbai New Energy Technology, stated that the existence of lithium carbonate futures is inevitable and reasonable in the context of lithium salt price fluctuations, resource surplus, and chaotic pricing system, and will have a profound impact on the supply chain and industry.
The tram market in China is growing steadily, but there is still significant downward pressure on prices. "Xiong Wei, a lithium industry consultant at Traxys, believes that under the stimulation of high prices, supply increments will enter the market, but the growth rate may be lower than the promotional data.
From the perspective of lithium carbonate market demand, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Automotive Market Research Branch of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that in 2023, the world automotive market is on the rise, with China performing well, with a high share of new energy vehicles growing rapidly, and strong global competitiveness.
He further stated that the rise in lithium prices is a cause for concern, as battery demand has increased but export demand has declined. Ningde Times still holds a stable position in the first tier of power battery supply, and the reasonable layout of China's charging facilities is worthy of recognition.
You Jiaxun, Chief Executive of China Merchants Securities Electronic New Energy, stated that global electric vehicle sales are still expected to maintain rapid growth, and the demand for power batteries will enter the TWh era in 2024. With the rapid development of photovoltaic wind power, the consumption and storage of new energy will be a long-term and urgent industrial need. In terms of segmentation, although the domestic power storage model needs to be optimized, the overall trend is still rapid development; Overseas household energy storage is still the most friendly segmented market, and China's industrial and commercial energy storage industry will usher in an explosion.
According to reports, in order to actively embrace the trend of "dual carbon" economic development, China Merchants Securities R&D Center and Futures Research Institute are deeply bound, deeply engaged in research on the new energy industry, and actively serving listed companies and financial markets; China Merchants Futures utilizes the warehousing and delivery resources of China Merchants Group to create the "Risk Manager" brand, providing customized risk management solutions and supply chain financial service solutions for upstream and downstream customers in various industrial sectors. In addition, China Merchants Securities Investment Bank has established a "carbon neutrality" team to collaborate with other businesses, connect the primary and secondary market service chains, and comprehensively assist the high-quality development of "dual carbon" enterprises.
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