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The production and sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and power batteries are expected to continue to benefit
2023/8/16
Recently, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 805,000 and 780,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively, and a market share of 32.7%. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 40% and 41.7% respectively, with a market share of 29%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly year-on-year.
The power battery is an essential core component of new energy vehicles and its power source, known as the "heart" of new energy vehicles.
Some analysts said that thanks to factors such as the continuous launch of high-quality new energy models and the continuous improvement of infrastructure such as charging and swapping, the global new energy vehicle market demand continues to grow rapidly, which drives the demand for power batteries to soar.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly year-on-year
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also shows that in July, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 679,000, a year-on-year increase of 26%; exports of new energy vehicles were 101,000, a month-on-month increase of 29.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 87%. From January to July, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 3.89 million, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%; the export of new energy vehicles was 636,000, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times, and the growth rate of overseas exports was significantly higher than that of domestic sales.
Driven by the rapid increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the installed volume of power batteries has also continued to grow rapidly.
On August 10, the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in July, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 32.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. Among them, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 10.6GWh, accounting for 32.8% of the total installed volume, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 4.8%; down 4.7%.
Ping An Securities predicts that, benefiting from the continuous development of my country's automobile electrification and superimposed on the high growth of power battery exports, it is estimated that domestic power battery shipments are expected to reach 666.7GWh, 834.6GWh, and 988.7GWh from 2023 to 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.2% and 988.7GWh respectively. 25.2%, 18.5%, and the market size will reach 520.84 billion yuan, 617.89 billion yuan, and 700.48 billion yuan respectively.
The power battery industry chain continues to thrive
It is understood that the entire industry chain of power batteries can be divided into upstream metal and non-metal materials, mainly including lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other metal raw materials and their compounds, and graphite resources; midstream power battery components, including positive electrode materials and negative electrode materials , diaphragm, electrolyte, etc.; the downstream is the main manufacturer of power batteries, etc.
Cathode materials are the core materials of lithium-ion batteries, and currently account for more than 45% of the cost. Common power battery cathode materials include ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate materials and lithium manganese oxide materials. Ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries With the characteristics of high energy density and low cost, it has become the mainstream of the power battery market, and it is difficult to be replaced by emerging technologies in the short term.
NCM (Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese) and NCA (Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum) are currently widely used as ternary cathode materials. Nickel, cobalt, and manganese are transition metal elements, and the solid solutions formed can be mixed in any proportion. An increase in the proportion of nickel element can increase the battery capacity. Technically, the main development direction of ternary materials is high nickel, cobalt-free, and single crystal.
In 2022, the domestic output of ternary cathode materials will be about 599,000 tons, of which the output of high-nickel ternary NCM811 and NCA will reach 265,000 tons, accounting for 44.3% of the total, an increase of 7.1 percentage points from 2021.
Among them, the ternary precursor is the key raw material of the ternary cathode material. The higher the proportion of nickel in the ternary precursor, the higher the energy density of the lithium battery. High-nickel ternary precursors mainly include NCM622 precursors, NCM811 precursors, NCA precursors, etc. At present, NCM811 and ultra-high nickel ternary system are accelerating penetration. Among the listed companies of ternary precursors, Zhongwei is the world's leading industry leader.
According to the data of Xinyu Information, in 2022, Zhongwei's ternary precursor market share will increase to 27%, and it will continue to maintain the first place in the industry. The company's shipments of ternary precursor high-nickel products accounted for more than 70%, of which the shipments of 9-series products exceeded 50,000 tons.
In October 2022, Zhongwei's first overseas base, Morowali Base in Indonesia, will be put into operation with an annual output of 60,000 gold tons of high matte nickel. High nickel matte is the main source of finished products for the ternary precursor of Zhongwei Co., Ltd., and its smooth output marks an important breakthrough in the company's integrated strategic layout. At the same time, increasing the self-supply ratio of core raw materials will help the company control raw material costs and reduce raw material markets. The adverse effects of price changes will enhance the coordination ability of upstream resources and continuously improve the company's core competitiveness. In the first half of 2023, Zhongwei is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 730 million to 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% to 25.64%.
The Soochow Securities Research Report pointed out that overseas demand for ternary products is growing steadily. It is estimated that Zhongwei's annual shipments are expected to reach nearly 300,000 tons, achieving a growth rate of about 30%.
The power battery is an essential core component of new energy vehicles and its power source, known as the "heart" of new energy vehicles.
Some analysts said that thanks to factors such as the continuous launch of high-quality new energy models and the continuous improvement of infrastructure such as charging and swapping, the global new energy vehicle market demand continues to grow rapidly, which drives the demand for power batteries to soar.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly year-on-year
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also shows that in July, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 679,000, a year-on-year increase of 26%; exports of new energy vehicles were 101,000, a month-on-month increase of 29.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 87%. From January to July, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 3.89 million, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%; the export of new energy vehicles was 636,000, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times, and the growth rate of overseas exports was significantly higher than that of domestic sales.
Driven by the rapid increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the installed volume of power batteries has also continued to grow rapidly.
On August 10, the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in July, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 32.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. Among them, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 10.6GWh, accounting for 32.8% of the total installed volume, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 4.8%; down 4.7%.
Ping An Securities predicts that, benefiting from the continuous development of my country's automobile electrification and superimposed on the high growth of power battery exports, it is estimated that domestic power battery shipments are expected to reach 666.7GWh, 834.6GWh, and 988.7GWh from 2023 to 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.2% and 988.7GWh respectively. 25.2%, 18.5%, and the market size will reach 520.84 billion yuan, 617.89 billion yuan, and 700.48 billion yuan respectively.
The power battery industry chain continues to thrive
It is understood that the entire industry chain of power batteries can be divided into upstream metal and non-metal materials, mainly including lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other metal raw materials and their compounds, and graphite resources; midstream power battery components, including positive electrode materials and negative electrode materials , diaphragm, electrolyte, etc.; the downstream is the main manufacturer of power batteries, etc.
Cathode materials are the core materials of lithium-ion batteries, and currently account for more than 45% of the cost. Common power battery cathode materials include ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate materials and lithium manganese oxide materials. Ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries With the characteristics of high energy density and low cost, it has become the mainstream of the power battery market, and it is difficult to be replaced by emerging technologies in the short term.
NCM (Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese) and NCA (Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum) are currently widely used as ternary cathode materials. Nickel, cobalt, and manganese are transition metal elements, and the solid solutions formed can be mixed in any proportion. An increase in the proportion of nickel element can increase the battery capacity. Technically, the main development direction of ternary materials is high nickel, cobalt-free, and single crystal.
In 2022, the domestic output of ternary cathode materials will be about 599,000 tons, of which the output of high-nickel ternary NCM811 and NCA will reach 265,000 tons, accounting for 44.3% of the total, an increase of 7.1 percentage points from 2021.
Among them, the ternary precursor is the key raw material of the ternary cathode material. The higher the proportion of nickel in the ternary precursor, the higher the energy density of the lithium battery. High-nickel ternary precursors mainly include NCM622 precursors, NCM811 precursors, NCA precursors, etc. At present, NCM811 and ultra-high nickel ternary system are accelerating penetration. Among the listed companies of ternary precursors, Zhongwei is the world's leading industry leader.
According to the data of Xinyu Information, in 2022, Zhongwei's ternary precursor market share will increase to 27%, and it will continue to maintain the first place in the industry. The company's shipments of ternary precursor high-nickel products accounted for more than 70%, of which the shipments of 9-series products exceeded 50,000 tons.
In October 2022, Zhongwei's first overseas base, Morowali Base in Indonesia, will be put into operation with an annual output of 60,000 gold tons of high matte nickel. High nickel matte is the main source of finished products for the ternary precursor of Zhongwei Co., Ltd., and its smooth output marks an important breakthrough in the company's integrated strategic layout. At the same time, increasing the self-supply ratio of core raw materials will help the company control raw material costs and reduce raw material markets. The adverse effects of price changes will enhance the coordination ability of upstream resources and continuously improve the company's core competitiveness. In the first half of 2023, Zhongwei is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 730 million to 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% to 25.64%.
The Soochow Securities Research Report pointed out that overseas demand for ternary products is growing steadily. It is estimated that Zhongwei's annual shipments are expected to reach nearly 300,000 tons, achieving a growth rate of about 30%.
The industry believes that in the future, with the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry as its "heart" will continue to maintain rapid growth, and the performance of leading companies in all links of the industrial chain will also remain outstanding.
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