Raw material cost support is strong, diammonium supply is relatively tight
2023/8/14
This situation is indeed reversed from the previous period. The international price has surpassed the domestic price. At present, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3300-3550 yuan, and the low-end quotation is gradually disappearing. The quotation at the station is 3,600 yuan, and the quotation of 57% brown diammonium at the station is 3,000 yuan. Some companies have not adjusted their quotations or issued new quotations, but judging from the current situation, 64% of the diammonium ex-factory quotations have risen to more than 3,500 yuan. It is normal.
It can be seen that the international price increase will boost the rise of domestic diammonium. The demand for diammonium in autumn does exist, but judging from the price difference between 57% diammonium and 64% diammonium in the previous period, the price increase of 64% diammonium does lack a booster. Rising prices, to a certain extent, represent that the international demand for diammonium is acceptable. Although the overall ammonium phosphate export quota in the fourth quarter is only around 1 million tons, the mentality of buying up and not buying down may make the domestic and foreign demand for diammonium continue to highlight. , at least it will not be "twitchy". After the dust of diammonium price increase has settled, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement will increase, the industry's acceptance of diammonium prices will increase, and market actions will increase.
However, it also depends on when diammonium companies can receive new orders. Recently, most diammonium companies are looking forward to issuing orders and export orders before implementation. It is not large, and the downstream social inventory is relatively small. In the early stage, the downstream purchase of 57% diammonium was more, and the purchase quantity of 64% diammonium was not large for the time being. The supply of 64% diammonium may be relatively tight in the later period.
In the case of good demand, the high cost of raw materials is a positive support for diammonium. The price of sulfur has been rising recently. Although the port has a large stock, it has not affected the price increase of sulfur. At present, the price of granular sulfur in the Yangtze River Port has risen to Around 1,100 yuan, the price of Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port also rose to 1,050 yuan. There is still a possibility of upward movement in the short term, and the possibility of a big drop will not appear for the time being. Phosphate rock is mainly stable, and the import volume has been relatively large in recent months. However, during the peak demand season, ore prices should remain stable for a period of time. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated at a high level. It can be seen that the cost support of diammonium raw materials is strong.
In summary, the fact that the price of diammonium has risen recently is undeniable, and it is expected that the new quotations of diammonium companies will be close to 3,500 yuan or even higher in the later period.
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