Aggregated MDI market is strong to follow up, with some upside space
2023/8/11
Maintenance shrinkage, the start-up load maintained a low negative level for several months in a row
During the year, the overall start-up load of the polymerized MDI plant was low, with an average start-up load of 69.9% from January to July. Since June, the number of overhaul devices in the factory has increased. Successive overhauls have affected the rectification units of Shanghai Huntsman and Shanghai BASF, and the start-up of the units was delayed due to the overhaul. The overhaul of the units was postponed until July 31. In addition, in August, the 80,000-ton/year plant of Dongcao Rui'an began to be overhauled at the beginning of the month and lasted for about one month. The 1.1 million tons/year unit plan of the northern major factory is expected to be overhauled in August. Based on the start-up load from June to September, except for the device callback to a high level in early August, the other time points maintain a low start-up load operation state. In addition, Tosoh’s 200,000-ton/year plant in Japan started overhaul in mid-September, and South Korea’s Kumho’s 410,000-ton/year plant began to overhaul in early October. From 1st to 20th, production will be shut down for maintenance and technical renovation will be carried out. After the technical renovation, it will be increased to 400,000 tons per year. The maintenance is expected to take about 80 days. The overall supply of imports is limited, and there is a possibility of additional exports.
The social inventory is low, and the pipeline industry is waiting for recovery
From the perspective of the downstream situation, except for the slow recovery of the real estate industry's prosperity value and the impact of orders in some industries, most markets still maintain a stable and relatively strong follow-up state. The order volume in the second half of the year is relatively stable, and there will be some small peak seasons at the end of the year, sprinting production. The small home appliance industry performed well due to the "6.18" big promotion in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the market paid more attention to the "Double Eleven Big Promotion". Incremental expectations. Due to the 14th Five-Year Strategic Plan and the rural renovation of cold storage panels and building insulation, the overall follow-up volume can still be maintained. The spraying industry is supported by some peak seasons in the market outlook, and orders are stable. Formaldehyde-free panels have existed as a dark horse on the consumer side in recent years. Manufacturers have maintained their market share in volume, and urea-formaldehyde has been transformed into formaldehyde-free. The production line needs to increase, and the demand increase brought about by a wave of production line replacement in October and November will be concentrated. The OCF industry chain is transformed, the proportion of circulating goods is reduced, the main focus is on the increase of self-owned brands, and short-term inventory declines, but there are still expectations for increase in the medium and long term. In addition, the pipeline industry deserves everyone's attention. As the market enters August, some demand orders have increased significantly and are expected to continue to increase.
On the whole, the domestic polymeric MDI has undergone a rational correction, and after the consumption of profit-making positions, there are still positive advantages, the supply is still expected to shrink, the demand inventory remains low, and the market follow-up ability is still sufficient. It is expected that the domestic polymeric MDI market is relatively strong Follow up and save some upside.
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