In the short term, the domestic DMF market price is mainly stable and firm
2023/8/10
The reasons for the recent rise in DMF prices are mainly analyzed from the following aspects:
1. Cost
Recently, the market price of methanol has fluctuated within a narrow range. As the weather turns cooler, some downstream demand gradually picks up, and there are signs of improvement on the demand side. With the recovery of installations in the northern region and the arrival of imported goods in Hong Kong, the supply in the market is gradually sufficient, while the downstream goods are mainly in demand. The supply and demand side is weak, and some low prices make up for it. Market transactions are average. Overall, the cost of DMF Surface support still exists.
2. Supply and demand side
At present, some DMF devices are shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is slightly reduced, which is good for the market. The supply side has a little support for the mentality of the industry, while the price of the main downstream slurry market is mainly stable during the week. The production of enterprise devices remains stable, and the terminal market demand is temporarily absent Significant improvement, on-site trading continues to be based on rigid demand in stages, and some downstream manufacturers just need to pick up goods sporadically. Overall, the market supply and demand are positive.
3. Inventory
The inventory of domestic DMF factories has fluctuated within a narrow range so far this month, and the market price has fluctuated upwards during the week. Scattered goods are picked up, and the shipment situation of manufacturers has improved. Therefore, the inventory of production enterprises has been destocked in a narrow range compared with the previous period.
Outlook forecast
Raw material side: The market price of methanol fluctuates strongly locally. Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the region has shrunk, which supports the mentality of the industry. However, the recovery of downstream demand is relatively slow, and the actual order transactions are mainly rigid demand; the market price of another raw material, synthetic ammonia Steady and weakening, the supply of synthetic ammonia in the field is abundant at present, and some pre-parking devices are planned to restart, so it is difficult to find a good supply side. On the whole, there is no strong support for DMF cost side; supply and demand side: the recent DMF market price continues to rise, At present, some enterprises shut down their installations for maintenance, and the market supply has decreased slightly. The supply side is positive for the industry, but the follow-up plans to restart and put into production equipment are available. The supply side is good or weak, while the main downstream slurry market is mainly stable, and the terminal market conditions The changes are limited, the downstream mostly maintains the previous production level, and the rigid demand for DMF is maintained. The overall positive factors of supply and demand may be difficult to maintain. On the whole, the current trading activity in the DMF market is acceptable, and the inventory pressure of production companies is controllable. Under the double positive influence of supply and demand, manufacturers still have the mentality of holding up prices, but there are follow-up plans to restart and put into production devices, and the supply side is positively supported It may weaken, so it is expected that the short-term domestic DMF market price will be stable and firm, with a range of 0-300 yuan/ton. Follow-up trends need to pay attention to the start of work, inventory and downstream demand in various regions, and operate with caution.
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