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Photovoltaic technology and industry will be further developed and improved
2023/8/9
Recently, the price of photovoltaic cell module products has loosened again. According to the data from MySteel.com, taking the 166 series single-sided monocrystalline PERC modules in East China as an example, the quotation was 1.16 yuan/watt on August 8, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous day.
The reporter called Shanghai Aerospace Automotive Electromechanical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of photovoltaic cell modules, as an investor. The relevant person in charge said that since the beginning of this year, the company's photovoltaic module shipments have achieved steady growth compared with the same period last year. In terms of shipment prices, if the market price The company will also make a corresponding reduction. "The market price has been further lowered recently, mainly because the price of raw materials is at a low level, and the number of new companies entering the market or companies that have completed expansion is increasing, and the supply has increased. In the second half of the year, the main Still pay attention to the fluctuation of raw material prices.”
Component prices entered a downward channel
The data shows that, in addition to the above-mentioned models of photovoltaic modules, the quotations of the 182 series single-sided monocrystalline PERC and 210 series single-sided monocrystalline PERC modules on August 8 were 1.27 yuan/watt and 1.29 yuan/watt respectively. They slipped 1.55% and 2.27%, respectively, the day before.
Yang Ruyi, general manager of Kuwang Investment, said in an interview with reporters that from the perspective of market supply and demand, since the shipments of most mainstream module companies in the first half of this year were lower than expected, in order to make the annual supply quantity meet the standard, companies have rushed to Increased shipments of photovoltaic modules in the second half of the year, promoting supply growth, resulting in oversupply, and further driving down the price of photovoltaic modules.
"From the perspective of cost, cost is not the main reason for the recent decline in the price of photovoltaic modules. In fact, the upstream photovoltaic industry chain has been in a stage of stable and slight growth recently. On the one hand, the demand for overseas silicon materials has maintained a growth trend. On the other hand, production has been delayed. Factors related to power supply led to a decline in the overall output of silicon materials, and the supply was lower than expected, which eventually stabilized the price of silicon materials and increased module costs. However, because module companies need to meet shipment targets, the cost of The increase did not lead to a decrease in module supply, nor did it have a major impact on module prices." Yang Ruyi further said that in addition to supply and demand factors, competition among enterprises is also the main reason for the decline in photovoltaic module prices. Since the beginning of this year, the number of photovoltaic module bidding companies has increased sharply, and the concentration of module winning bids has also begun to disperse. Many second- and third-tier companies have won orders in the competition with first-tier companies. , Many companies are trying to fight for share with low prices, and the "price war" has also led to a decline in component prices.
How will the price of photovoltaic modules change in the future? Liu Jimao, assistant president of Xingchu Century Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that taking the 166 model as an example, it is expected that the module price will hover between 1.0 yuan/watt and 1.2 yuan/watt for a long time.
Jie Chong, deputy dean of the East High-Tech Investment Research Institute, said that module prices are expected to continue to fall in the future. Policy support, environmental policies and the promotion of energy transformation will further promote the expansion of the photovoltaic market. The increase in demand will attract a large number of enterprises to enter the market and expand production capacity. , The capacity and output of the photovoltaic industry chain will continue to grow, leading to further declines in component prices.
"However, it should also be noted that although the downward trend of photovoltaic module prices is obvious, the rate of decline will most likely slow down. This is mainly due to the fact that with the further development of technology, cost reduction will be limited by the diminishing marginal effect." Jie Chong explain.
Optimistic profitability of module companies in the second half of the year
According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, as of press time on August 8, two A-share component-related listed companies have released performance reports for the first half of 2023. During the reporting period, their net profits attributable to their parents increased by 119.6% and 41.63% year-on-year respectively. At the same time, based on the calculation of listed companies in the sector that have released performance forecasts, all 10 component-related listed companies that have disclosed mid-term report forecasts are all happy.
Xiao Suo, an analyst in the solar energy industry at Shanxi Securities, said that the price of photovoltaic cell modules is expected to stabilize in late August or early September, and sales and profits will both rise under the joint drive of domestic and overseas demand.
In Yang Ruyi's view, it is expected that after the second half of the year enters the traditional peak season for installations, market demand will explode. Judging from the semi-annual performance of listed companies, the net profit growth of most photovoltaic companies in the first half of the year is gratifying. This profit growth is mainly due to the synergistic effect of various links in the industrial chain, especially battery components, photovoltaic inverters and equipment. On the one hand, such achievements can ensure the sustainable development of the supply side, and on the other hand, it will also attract more investors to enter the industry.
"The performance of the international market has also played a positive role in promoting the profit growth of photovoltaic module manufacturers. China's photovoltaic products have strong demand in overseas markets. In terms of policies, new energy-related industries have always been the object of strong support from the state." Yang Ruyi said.
Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of PaiPai.com, told reporters that the photovoltaic industry is in a period of technological transformation from P-type to N-type, and the superior production capacity is still in short supply; the proportion of photovoltaic power generation is still at a low level, and there is huge room for improvement. With the continuous improvement of photovoltaic technology, the penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly; the price of photovoltaic modules returns to a reasonable range, which is expected to drive the growth of demand for new installed photovoltaic capacity.
Yang Ruyi said frankly that in the long run, the prospect of the photovoltaic industry is still bright. With the increasing pursuit of clean energy in the world, photovoltaic technology and industry will be further developed and improved. my country's photovoltaic companies, with their advantages in technology, cost control and market layout, are expected to continue to occupy a place in the global market. Therefore, the profit expectations of photovoltaic module manufacturers in the second half of the year are still optimistic.
The reporter called Shanghai Aerospace Automotive Electromechanical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of photovoltaic cell modules, as an investor. The relevant person in charge said that since the beginning of this year, the company's photovoltaic module shipments have achieved steady growth compared with the same period last year. In terms of shipment prices, if the market price The company will also make a corresponding reduction. "The market price has been further lowered recently, mainly because the price of raw materials is at a low level, and the number of new companies entering the market or companies that have completed expansion is increasing, and the supply has increased. In the second half of the year, the main Still pay attention to the fluctuation of raw material prices.”
Component prices entered a downward channel
The data shows that, in addition to the above-mentioned models of photovoltaic modules, the quotations of the 182 series single-sided monocrystalline PERC and 210 series single-sided monocrystalline PERC modules on August 8 were 1.27 yuan/watt and 1.29 yuan/watt respectively. They slipped 1.55% and 2.27%, respectively, the day before.
Yang Ruyi, general manager of Kuwang Investment, said in an interview with reporters that from the perspective of market supply and demand, since the shipments of most mainstream module companies in the first half of this year were lower than expected, in order to make the annual supply quantity meet the standard, companies have rushed to Increased shipments of photovoltaic modules in the second half of the year, promoting supply growth, resulting in oversupply, and further driving down the price of photovoltaic modules.
"From the perspective of cost, cost is not the main reason for the recent decline in the price of photovoltaic modules. In fact, the upstream photovoltaic industry chain has been in a stage of stable and slight growth recently. On the one hand, the demand for overseas silicon materials has maintained a growth trend. On the other hand, production has been delayed. Factors related to power supply led to a decline in the overall output of silicon materials, and the supply was lower than expected, which eventually stabilized the price of silicon materials and increased module costs. However, because module companies need to meet shipment targets, the cost of The increase did not lead to a decrease in module supply, nor did it have a major impact on module prices." Yang Ruyi further said that in addition to supply and demand factors, competition among enterprises is also the main reason for the decline in photovoltaic module prices. Since the beginning of this year, the number of photovoltaic module bidding companies has increased sharply, and the concentration of module winning bids has also begun to disperse. Many second- and third-tier companies have won orders in the competition with first-tier companies. , Many companies are trying to fight for share with low prices, and the "price war" has also led to a decline in component prices.
How will the price of photovoltaic modules change in the future? Liu Jimao, assistant president of Xingchu Century Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that taking the 166 model as an example, it is expected that the module price will hover between 1.0 yuan/watt and 1.2 yuan/watt for a long time.
Jie Chong, deputy dean of the East High-Tech Investment Research Institute, said that module prices are expected to continue to fall in the future. Policy support, environmental policies and the promotion of energy transformation will further promote the expansion of the photovoltaic market. The increase in demand will attract a large number of enterprises to enter the market and expand production capacity. , The capacity and output of the photovoltaic industry chain will continue to grow, leading to further declines in component prices.
"However, it should also be noted that although the downward trend of photovoltaic module prices is obvious, the rate of decline will most likely slow down. This is mainly due to the fact that with the further development of technology, cost reduction will be limited by the diminishing marginal effect." Jie Chong explain.
Optimistic profitability of module companies in the second half of the year
According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, as of press time on August 8, two A-share component-related listed companies have released performance reports for the first half of 2023. During the reporting period, their net profits attributable to their parents increased by 119.6% and 41.63% year-on-year respectively. At the same time, based on the calculation of listed companies in the sector that have released performance forecasts, all 10 component-related listed companies that have disclosed mid-term report forecasts are all happy.
Xiao Suo, an analyst in the solar energy industry at Shanxi Securities, said that the price of photovoltaic cell modules is expected to stabilize in late August or early September, and sales and profits will both rise under the joint drive of domestic and overseas demand.
In Yang Ruyi's view, it is expected that after the second half of the year enters the traditional peak season for installations, market demand will explode. Judging from the semi-annual performance of listed companies, the net profit growth of most photovoltaic companies in the first half of the year is gratifying. This profit growth is mainly due to the synergistic effect of various links in the industrial chain, especially battery components, photovoltaic inverters and equipment. On the one hand, such achievements can ensure the sustainable development of the supply side, and on the other hand, it will also attract more investors to enter the industry.
"The performance of the international market has also played a positive role in promoting the profit growth of photovoltaic module manufacturers. China's photovoltaic products have strong demand in overseas markets. In terms of policies, new energy-related industries have always been the object of strong support from the state." Yang Ruyi said.
Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of PaiPai.com, told reporters that the photovoltaic industry is in a period of technological transformation from P-type to N-type, and the superior production capacity is still in short supply; the proportion of photovoltaic power generation is still at a low level, and there is huge room for improvement. With the continuous improvement of photovoltaic technology, the penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly; the price of photovoltaic modules returns to a reasonable range, which is expected to drive the growth of demand for new installed photovoltaic capacity.
Yang Ruyi said frankly that in the long run, the prospect of the photovoltaic industry is still bright. With the increasing pursuit of clean energy in the world, photovoltaic technology and industry will be further developed and improved. my country's photovoltaic companies, with their advantages in technology, cost control and market layout, are expected to continue to occupy a place in the global market. Therefore, the profit expectations of photovoltaic module manufacturers in the second half of the year are still optimistic.
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