Phosphate fertilizer prices rebounded and relevant listed companies actively produced
2023/8/9
In the first half of this year, the price of phosphate fertilizers continued to drop, and the profits of related listed companies weakened. Flush iFinD data shows that as of August 8, the seven phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical companies that have disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to decline in performance, and some have suffered first losses.
The demand for fertilizer preparation in autumn is heating up
Spring and autumn are often the peak seasons for fertilizer preparation. Zhang Xiaozhen, an energy and chemical analyst at GF Futures, said that on the supply side, companies have entered the peak season of fertilizer production in autumn. In the next period of time, the capacity utilization rate of companies will remain high, and some will enter a state of medium-to-high operating load.
"The company is now in a state of active production, the production equipment is running normally, and the sales side will make an overall plan according to the demand for fertilizer in autumn." On August 8, the relevant person in charge of a leading phosphate fertilizer company told reporters that in order to prepare for the autumn fertilizer The market is changing, and the company is ramping up production at full capacity.
Similarly, the relevant staff of Yuntu Holdings, another phosphate fertilizer company, also told the reporter: "The current phosphate fertilizer production has entered the peak season, and the normal production of production equipment has not yet reached full capacity." He said: "Compared with the first half of the year, since the third quarter, the company's operating Things have improved."
Li Lingxin, an analyst of the phosphate fertilizer industry at Longzhong Information, said: "At this stage, the international market continues to rise, and some phosphate fertilizer factories have received more export orders. With the continuous follow-up of the demand for fertilizer preparation, some factories can wait to ship their products until early September. .”
Boosted by the demand for fertilizer preparation in autumn, the price of phosphate fertilizers has shown signs of rebound recently.
SunSirs data shows that last week (July 31 to August 4), the price of monoammonium phosphate at the beginning of the week was 2616.67 yuan/ton, and the price at the weekend was 2733.33 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.46%. The price of diammonium phosphate at the beginning of the week, The weekend price is 3687.50 yuan / ton, stable and expected to rise. As of August 7, the latest prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 2733.33 yuan/ton and 3687.5 yuan/ton respectively, maintaining the prices at the end of last week.
Li Lingxin said that the inventory of monoammonium phosphate, the raw material of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises, is low, and there is a large gap in fertilizer production in autumn. "Beginning in July, the downstream has successively carried out the stocking and purchase of autumn fertilizer raw materials. Just need to promote the market trading atmosphere to improve. The monoammonium phosphate plant has a large amount to be shipped. As the cost continues to rise, the quotation continues to rise, and the buying mentality helps. The price of monoammonium phosphate continues to increase."
Wei Qian, an analyst in the phosphate fertilizer industry of Longzhong Information, told reporters that the diammonium phosphate market stopped falling at the end of July, mainly due to the rise in international prices and the shortage of supply in the market.
Enterprise orders or smooth follow-up
In the first half of the year, the profits of most phosphate fertilizer companies were under pressure. Flush iFinD data shows that in terms of the upper limit of net profit growth, the net profit of two of the seven phosphate fertilizer companies in the first half of the year fell by between 22% and 153% year-on-year.
The sluggish downstream and terminal demand, coupled with the drop in raw material prices, the year-on-year decline in the prices of related phosphate fertilizer products, and the year-on-year decline in sales volume are the main reasons for the weakening profits of phosphate fertilizer companies in the first half of the year.
In the first half of this year, the price of phosphate fertilizer continued to drop. Zhuo Chuang Information data shows that from January to June 2023, the average market price of 55% monoammonium phosphate powder in China is 3,034 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.73% from the same period last year, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate is 3,973 yuan/ton, which is 3,973 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year. slipped 1.60%.
Market analysis believes that the decline in the price of main phosphate fertilizers is due to the impact of the external environment on the one hand, the continuous decline in domestic upstream raw materials, and the continued sluggish demand; Prices continue to fall.
Regarding the price trend of phosphate fertilizers, Li Lingxin said that considering that raw materials in the Northeast market still need to be stocked after autumn, the production capacity utilization rate of the monoammonium phosphate industry is still increasing. Overall, it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will rise first and then fluctuate and fall.
"In the second half of the year, driven by demand, the price of phosphate rock, the main raw material, is easy to rise but hard to fall. The cost of diammonium phosphate is somewhat supported. At present, international demand continues to follow up. Exports in the third quarter are still supported. The supply of ammonium supply is tight." Wei Qian said: "The social inventory in the domestic mainstream consumer market is at a low level, and autumn is the main demand season for phosphate fertilizers. The demand for diammonium in the winter storage market is greater, and corporate orders may follow up steadily. Therefore, in the second half of the year, domestic The rigid demand in the market still exists, and it is expected that the domestic diammonium phosphate market will consolidate at a high level after rising.”
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