The cost of polyethylene supports the market's short-term continued growth momentum to weaken
2023/8/9
The demand for polyethylene is still weak in the near future, but as time goes by, the overall operating rate of agricultural film across the country has increased slightly. At present, the demand for mulch film is still in the off-season, but orders for pre-sale shed film in some areas have been followed up in an orderly manner, and the demand has accumulated slightly. In addition, the garlic film is expected to follow up in the middle and late ten days, and the start of production enterprises may further increase.
2. The inventory days of agricultural film raw materials have accumulated slightly
At present, the inventory days of agricultural film raw materials are in the stage of slight accumulation and increase, and the raw material inventory of enterprises ranges from 6 to 7 days. However, recently, some areas have been greatly affected by factors such as high temperature and rain, typhoons and other factors. Some downstream industries have started to work weakly, and the inventory accumulation speed will slow down. Most of the downstream maintain rigid demand procurement.
3. Apparent consumption in the first quarter decreased year-on-year in the second quarter
In the first quarter of 2023, the apparent consumption of PE decreased year-on-year, and increased year-on-year in the second quarter; the apparent consumption of PE in the first quarter of 2023 was 9.68 million tons, a decrease of 283,000 tons compared with the same period last year (9.963 million tons), a decrease of 2.84%; The apparent consumption was 9.417 million tons, an increase of 906,500 tons or 10.65% over the same period last year (8.5105 million tons). From January to June 2023, the domestic PE apparent consumption was 19.097 million tons, an increase of 623,400 tons or 3.37% over the same period last year (18.4736 million tons). The overall trend is increasing.
4. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Rising Steadily
In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry continued to improve. Demand sentiment has also improved. In the second half of the year, with the gradual implementation of relevant policies to expand domestic demand, the construction and service industry-related industry activities will continue to develop well, and the endogenous growth momentum of my country's economy is expected to increase.
On the whole, the market demand for polyethylene in the later stage is expected to advance well, but judging from the current situation in August, the difficulty is still not small. Although the demand for agricultural mulch film is in the start-up stage, but the speed is slow and other factors such as high temperature days affect the overall demand. It is still in the off-season, and the operation performance is still relatively cautious. The relatively strong consolidation of the market is mainly due to the support of the cost side. The short-term continued growth momentum of the market has weakened, and it may be in a stalemate and shock consolidation situation.
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